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Netanyahu: Jerusalem’s Status To Be Decided ‘After A Negotiation’

Overlaid claims on Jerusalem, bisected by the 'Green Line' of 1967

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted yesterday in an interview with PBS that he could be open to negotiating the status of Jerusalem, a perpetual sticking point in the currently stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Palestinians have long claimed East Jerusalem, which is rife with Arab neighborhoods, should be the capitol of their future state. Israeli hard-liners claim the ancient city, which was unified by Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem after the 1967 Six Day War, will forever be the unified capitol of Israel.

While Netanyahu has flirted with the idea before — particularly in instances such as now when he is putting the onus on Palestinians to come to the table without preconditions — his comments about Jerusalem often reject the possibility of ever dividing the city. Here’s Netanyahu’s exchange on the Charlie Rose’s interview show last night:

NETANYAHU: I want Jerusalem a united city for sure. But that’s the way I go — These are not preconditions for negotiations. They’re positions in the negotiations. The final positions come out after a negotiation. I don’t think it makes sense, and I think it’s just not wise, it’s even silly, to come forward and say well I’ll offer this percent, you know, with a decimal point –

CHARLIE ROSE: Of land.

NETANYAHU: Of land. That’s what the negotiations are for.

Watch the video:

In the speeches he mentions in the clip, Netanyahu indicates that he will not accept a divided Jerusalem in any peace deal. At Bar-Ilan University in June 2009, Netanyahu said in a “permanent agreement,” one of Israel’s “needs” was “Jerusalem remaining the united capital of Israel.” In the Israeli parliament, or Knesset, on May 16, 2011, Netanyahu said he was guided by the “principle” of a united Jerusalem. And a week later, speaking to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, Netanyahu said:

Jerusalem must never again be divided. Jerusalem must remain the united capital of Israel. I know that this is a difficult issue for Palestinians. But I believe with creativity and goodwill a solution can be found.

Netanyahu’s position, though, has wavered tremendously between the above softer-hard-line and the hard-hard-line. The closest he’s come to staking out the same position he did last night was in July 2010 before audiences of an American-Jewish organization conference and Fox News, saying that Jerusalem is “one of the issues that will have to be negotiated.”

But in both January and December of that year — six months on either side of his July comments — Netanyahu and his office explicitly rejected the notion of ever dividing Jerusalem. Two months before his July American appearences, Netanyahu appeared at a holiday called Jerusalem Day, celebrating the 1967 unification of the city. He told Israeli crowds that Israel “will never again allow Jerusalem to become a separated, bleak and divided city.”

On Jerusalem Day this year, Netanyahu again took the harder line, telling crowds that “nothing more holy to us than Jerusalem” and its “unity,” and pledging again that “Jerusalem will never be divided.”

With all the flip-flopping, assessing exactly where Netanyahu stands on Jerusalem — whether it will “never” be divided or is part of the final status issues for negotiations — remains to be seen. But his latest comments, to an American television audience, seem to indicate that he’s open to giving a future Palestinian state sovereignty over Arab parts of East Jerusalem. If that’s the case, his position matches up exactly with President Obama, raising questions about the attacks on the President by Netanyahu’s closest stateside allies for being a “divide(r)” of Jerusalem.

NEWS FLASH

Saudi Woman Sentenced To 10 Whip Lashes For Defying Driving Ban | Last June, Saudi Arabian women launched a campaign to push for their right to drive, getting behind the wheels of their cars to protest the Kingdom’s ban on women driving. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised their efforts, saying, “I’m moved by it and I support them.” The AP reports today however that a court sentenced a Saudi woman to be lashed 10 times with a whip for defying the ban, noting that it’s “the first time a legal punishment has been handed down for a violation of the longtime ban in the ultraconservative Muslim nation.” The AP adds that Saudi authorities usually stop women drivers and let them go if they pledge not to drive again, but “dozens of women have continued to take to the roads since June in a campaign to break the taboo.” The sentence comes just days after King Abdullah announced that women will have the right to vote and run in forthcoming local elections there.

Yglesias

Trade With China Is A Really Big Deal

I was emailed Justin Lahart’s writeup of “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States” (PDF) by David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson just earlier and I have to say that looking at the paper I don’t totally understand the fanfare the Wall Street Journal gave it. Here’s the abstract:

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets. The deadweight loss of financing these transfers is one to two-thirds as large as U.S. gains from trade with China.

This is interesting and important work, but it doesn’t overturn David Ricardo or whatever’s in the introductory textbooks. It says that imports from China create a broad-based consumer surplus and concentrated losses for producers of import-competing goods. The interesting empirical finding here is that the scale of the impact is really large. Some countries (Iceland, Israel, Denmark) are small so it’s always been obvious that international trade is very important to them but the traditional analysis of postwar America was that international trade just wasn’t that big a deal for the United States. But China is a huge country and it’s growing rapidly, so the scale of the trade impacts is much larger than we’ve traditionally seen.

Politics

Three Weeks After Frank Gaffney Released New Anti-Sharia Pledge, Zero Presidential Candidates Have Signed On

Three weeks ago, Frank Gaffney released a new pledge asking presidential candidates to swear they will fight the non-existent threat of Sharia if elected president. Yet, as of publication time, none of the 10 major Republican presidential candidates have signed Gaffney’s anti-Sharia pledge. (Gaffney’s spokesman told us they are “still in touch with the campaigns.”)

Gaffney, one of the leading anti-Muslim misinformation experts profiled in the Center for American Progress’ recent report on Islamophobia in America, has spent years fighting what he sees as “creeping Sharia” in the United States. His efforts culminated in the release of a report last year entitled “Sharia: The Threat To America.”

In an effort to whip up support for his anti-Sharia campaign, the Center for Security Policy president released the “Twelve for ’12” policy platform earlier this month, which implores candidates to, among other things, “preserve and protect the Constitution” by “repudiat[ing]” Sharia:

It’s understandable that even presidential candidates as extreme as Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum don’t want to associate themselves with Gaffney. Beyond his absurd notion that Sharia law is a threat to the United States, Gaffney has made a name for himself with one outlandish claim after the next. He has accused Gen. David Petraeus of “submission” to Sharia law, claimed that the Muslim Brotherhood has “infiltrated” the federal government, and even argued that the government’s Missile Defense logo is further evidence of creeping Sharia law.

Though anti-Sharia sentiment had been fairly common in recent Republican rhetoric, the public outcry against presidential candidate Herman Cain’s declaration that he will not appoint Muslims in his administration was deafening. Cain’s campaign was dogged by the story for months until July when the candidate met with Muslim leaders outside Washington, DC and issued a public apology to all Muslim-Americans. Cain’s newfound tolerance did no harm to his standing among Republican primary voters; this past weekend, the former pizza executive enjoyed an overwhelming victory in Florida’s presidential straw poll.

Republican presidential candidates like Cain have clearly concluded that Gaffney’s anti-Sharia pledge is a political loser. Even a pledge stipulating that black families were better off during slavery than today earned signatures from Bachmann and Santorum. Gaffney’s flop is further evidence of Islamophobia’s waning influence in politics.

For more about Gaffney and other anti-Muslim, check out the Center for American Progress’ recent report: “Fear, Inc.: The Roots of the Islamophobia Network in America.”

Bachmann Imagines A New Cuban Missile Crisis, Worries Hezbollah Is Giving Castro Missiles

GOP presidential contender Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN) has a history of flubbing basic foreign policy facts, like when she claimed that Americans still live in fear of the Soviet Union. She made another whopper yesterday when she claimed that Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite Muslim political and military organization, is equipping communist Cuba with missiles. It would be “foolish” to normalize trade relations with Cuba, Bachmann told a crowd in Iowa, because Hezbollah could soon have “missile sites” there:

BACHMANN: Why would you normalize trading with a country that sponsors terror? There’s reports that have come out that Cuba has been working with another terrorist organization called Hezbollah. And Hezbollah is potentially looking at wanting to be part of missile sites in Iran and, of course, when you’re 90 miles offshore from Florida, you don’t want to entertain the prospect of hosting bases or sites where Hezbollah could have training camps or perhaps have missile sites or weapons sites in Cuba. This would be foolish.

Watch it:

There is absolutely no evidence to support her claim, which seems to be based on spurious reports in an Italian publication that did not even mention missiles.

Bachmann doesn’t appear to be too pleased that the United States has made significant strides toward normalizing relations with Cuba in the past few years.

AJC Poll Advances Baseless Claim That Attack Will ‘Prevent’ Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons

The American Jewish Committee (AJC) released its annual poll of Jewish-American public opinion yesterday, which, as with all demographics, showed a dip in Jewish support for President Obama over various issues including his handling of Israel-related matters. All the usual neocon partisans, who would love to see Obama wounded because of the importance of Jewish Americans to the Democrats, seized on the some version of the news. But the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin, in an article accurately headlined “Obama disappoints, but we’ll vote for him,” hit on a point of the survey the others missed:

On Iran, Jewish voters are much more hawkish than the president. If sanctions fail to halt Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, 56 percent favor the U.S. taking military action, and 88 percent favor Israel doing so.

Rubin initially got one of the numbers wrong (the post has since been corrected): In reality, only 68 percent of respondents said they would support Israeli military action. (Both figures are down slightly, within the margin of error, from last fall’s AJC poll.) But the questions themselves, which are typical of this issue, are tricky. Here are the relevant questions and (actual) numbers from the AJC poll:

While the survey asks about strikes “to prevent [Iran] developing nuclear weapons,” military analysts and non-proliferation experts from both the U.S. and Israel agree that attacking Iran’s nuclear installations would only delay — not stop — Iran’s nuclear progress.

At an event hosted by the Arms Control Association in Washington last week, senior fellow Greg Thielmann said, “[E]ven U.S. airstrikes would only delay, not prevent, an Iranian nuclear weapons capacity.”

That judgment corresponds with that of Jeffrey White, a military analyst at the pro-Israel Washington Institute, who said this summer:

You can’t destroy knowledge and you can’t destroy the basic technology. The setback to the program would be measured in years I think — two years maybe three years.

White thought an Israeli strike, because of Israel’s lesser military capabilities, would cause an even smaller delay of probably only a year.

Another skeptic of the efficacy of Israeli airstrikes against Iran is the former commander of the Israel Navy, retired Rear Admiral Avraham Botzer. In June, Botzer told Haaretz:

I’m afraid the air force has convinced the politicians that an attack on Iran is possible and will achieve results. If I’m right, then we’re dealing with a dangerous illusion.

Since an Israeli strike is less likely to significantly delay Iran’s nuclear progress, perhaps American Jews show greater support for that option because of the increased threat perception. The distinction might be moot anyway, since the U.S. could potentially be dragged into a very risky regional conflict because of an Israeli strike. Those kinds of consequences of an attack weren’t so much as hinted at in AJC’s poll.

National Security Brief: September 27, 2011


– NATO commander in Afghanistan Lt. Gen. William Caldwell said 800 more U.S. military trainers will be sent to the war-torn country to assist the Afghan army. Meanwhile, after “10 years of training and billions of dollars spent,” only two Afghan National Army battalions can operate independently, “although they still rely on coalition partners for logistical, medical, and maintenance support.”

– Caldwell also said the U.S. military hopes to reduce the amount it spends training the Afghan military by half — or $6 billion per year — over the next several years, partly, he said, because commanders expect the Taliban insurgency to decline.

– New reports on a 2007 ambush of U.S. and Afghanistan soldiers reveals that Pakistanis opened fire on the Americans as they attempted to resolve a border dispute on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

– The Syrian government has asked oil companies to cut production after an EU embargo on Syrian oil led to a backlog of crude oil in storage facilities.

– Syrian security forces escalated in the restive city of Homs after several defecting soldiers reportedly set up ambushes. Four defectors were killed.

– U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford reports that the Syrian government is arresting and torturing Syrians whose family members in the U.S. have spoken out against the regime.

– U.N. Undersecretary-general Lynn Pascoe warned that the international community should “establish control over the large stocks of sophisticated arms” left over from deposed dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s forces — including chemical weapons. Pascoe said they risked falling into the hands of terrorists.

– Israel announced the construction of 1,000 new Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem, further shifting the demographic balance and sealing Israeli dominance over what Palestinians had hoped would be their future capital.

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