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REPORT: Rebalance Troop Levels To Intersect Strategy With Spending

Our guest blogger is Kelsey Hartigan, nonproliferation and defense policy analyst at the National Security Network.

Next week, Secretary Panetta will preview the Defense Department’s roles and missions review, which President Obama ordered earlier this year as the debate over defense spending ramped up. Panetta’s testimony will come on the heels of the ten-year point for the war in Afghanistan — which serves as a clear indicator of how and where strategy interacts with spending.

In the last 10 years, the Army and the Marine Corps added 118,500 troops to their ranks as the U.S. pursued occupation and counterinsurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In this same time frame, the defense budget has more than doubled. As lawmakers look for savings within the defense budget, they must also reevaluate our national security priorities, the way America conducts its business in the world and the role the military plays in accomplishing those objectives.

This should begin with a shift to a counterterrorist mission in Afghanistan and elsewhere and an effort to rebalance the number of U.S. ground troops.

In a report released yesterday by the National Security Network, Major General Paul Eaton, USA (Ret.) and I recommend reducing ground forces to 2001 levels, resulting in an end strength of approximately 480,000 for the Army and 173,000 for the Marine Corps, provided that deployment guidelines are honored. We write:

Over the past decade, we have seen an expansion of military mission sets and capabilities that goes far beyond what political and military leaders now expect our armed forces to do in the years ahead. Ground forces, in particular, have grown in number and scope as the U.S. pursued a counterinsurgency doctrine that demanded troop-intensive operations simultaneously in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Few would challenge — and the National Security Strategy of the United States supports — the assertion of former Defense Secretary Robert Gates that, “The United States is unlikely to repeat a mission on the scale of those in Afghanistan or Iraq anytime soon — that is, forced regime change followed by nation building under fire.”

Maintaining the size of ground forces demanded by those operations appears unnecessary. Moreover, America’s success in combating terrorism through smaller, more targeted operations — including the one that culminated in the death of Osama bin Laden — shows that there are other more effective tools at our disposal.

Earlier this week, Lieutenant General David Barno, USA (Ret.), Nora Bensahel and Travis Sharp of the Center for a New American Security also recommended reducing the number of active-duty ground forces to similar levels.

In today’s fiscal environment, we must utilize all elements of our national power — our political, economic and military might. Over the past decade, we’ve relied disproportionately on our military. Now is the time to realign our defense strategy and gear the budget toward 21st century challenges, not extended troop-intensive operations.

Many Of Romney’s Foreign Policy Advisers Helped Push The U.S. Into War With Iraq

Today former Massachusetts governor and current Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced his campaign’s foreign policy team. Many of the names are drawn from the foreign policy establishment and prominent Republican-associated security circles. “Their remarkable experience, wisdom, and depth of knowledge will be critical to ensuring that the 21st century is another American Century,” Romney said in a statement. Notably, several of Romney’s advisers were among the most forceful proponents a “new American Century” already, one that involved primarily pushing for war in Iraq.

ELIOT COHEN

Cohen, who was a member of the short-lived Committee for the Liberation of Iraq that agitated for an invasion in 2002 and early 2003 and now directs the Johns Hopkins international affairs school, stuck to the theme that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction right up until the eve of the U.S. invasion. Though he eventually walked-back his support for the war, in February 2003, Cohn told NBC Nightly News:

I would suspect that if there’re going to be heavy civilian casualties, they’ll mainly be caused by the Iraqis and would flow from the use of chemical weapons or biological weapons.

ROBERT KAGAN

Kagan, a founder of the Project For A New American Century (PNAC) and the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI), argued for the military overthrow of Saddam Hussein beginning in the mid 1990s. In late 1998, after President Bill Clinton launched airstrikes against Iraq, Kagan complained on NPR that the attack didn’t go far enough and that Hussein needed to be overthrown:

I would agree that firing even several hundred cruise missiles into Iraq cannot be the end of the story. You really do have to go to the heart of the problem. The heart of the problem is Saddam Hussein himself, and any strategy the administration undertakes has to have a practical goal of removing Saddam Hussein from power.

PNAC, one of the groups Kagan founded (along with neoconservative don Bill Kristol), made statements and wrote a series of open letters to Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush from 1998 to 2003 that referred to Iraq, often calling for the military overthrow of Saddam Hussein and accusing him both of possessing weapons of mass destruction and having ties to Al Qaeda. Among the signatories to the letters were a bevy of those listed today as Romney advisers, including Kagan himself, Cohen, Paula Dobriansky, Vin Weber, John Lehman (a National Security Advisory Council member of the Islamophobic Center for Security Policy), now-super-lobbyist Vin Weber.

After the invasion, Iraq fell under the control of L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. viceroy in charge of the Coalition Provisional Authority that is widely blamed for botching the early days of the occupation. Two of Bremer’s top advisers — Meghan O’Sullivan, who later served as a Deputy National Security Advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan in the Bush administration and is now a Harvard professor, and CPA spokesperson Dan Senor, now with the neoconservative Foreign Policy Initiative (think PNAC 2.0, formed in 2009 by Senor, Kagan and Kristol) — are now with Romney’s team.

EXCLUSIVE: DOD ‘Proteus Management Group’ Cultivated Islamophobic Training Materials

Reports that FBI counterterrorism training programs relied heavily on Islamophobic material has sent shockwaves through the FBI and the Department of Justice. Wired’s Spencer Ackerman has closely followed the influence of FBI trainer William Gawthrop’s presentation, “The Sources and Patterns of Terrorism in Islamic Law,” and notes that the slides have been cited in Justice Department training material which portray an existential battle between Islam and the West.

Ackerman notes that in 2007, Gawthrop taught a class on “intelligence and homeland security” and the National Defense Intelligence College. A ThinkProgress investigation into Gawthrop’s background reveals he was part of a U.S. Army War College think tank, the Proteus Management Group (PMG), at which Islamophobic training material and papers were regularly produced and shared.

Pat Cohn, a contractor for the Army who works at the War College and is listed as a contact for the group, told ThinkProgress that, to the best of his knowledge, Proteus had been shut down when it lost its funding. He could not say when the funding had been cut. Portions of the project’s website have been erased but a combination of a cached version of the website and documents still hosted on U.S. military web-servers reveal a DOD operation which served as a breeding ground for the Islamophobic narratives present in Gawthrop’s presentations.

Proteus’ mission was to “consider differing values and perceptions,” and “frame complex issues holistically.” A banner on the now-erased Proteus website reflects the group’s “outside the box” mission:

Proteus, which was sponsored by the Office of the Director for National Intelligence and the U.S. Army War College’s Center for Strategic Leadership, hosted Gawthrop as a “PMG Fellow.” A March 2007 Proteus newsletter directs readers to one of Gawthrop’s articles in which he suggests the ideas of Islam should be “countered” through “critical vulnerabilities.” He writes:

Critical vulnerabilities of the Koran, for example, are that it was uttered by a mortal; portions were ghostwritten by others; portions were lost or redacted, and it was revised and re-issued by another mortal. Similar vulnerabilities may be found in Mohammad’s character as a political and military leader, the character of other Clerics in the Modern Era, as well as the topics addressed in the Haddiths.

But Gawthrop’s portrayal of Islam as inherently violent — indeed he glosses over the history of Christian wars of aggression by declaring “the Crusades were a delayed response to Jihad” — and at odds with Western civilization was hardly outside the norm in the “future” research conducted at Proteus.

Documents hosted on DOD webservers and associated with the Proteus program lay bare a culture of hostility toward Islam and closely resemble the messages in Gawthrop’s training materials.

A “Proteus Monograph Series” on “Truth, Perception, And Consequences,” authored by Christine A. R. MacNulty, reads:

[The Enlightenment] was the time of a major paradigm shift for the West, away from the authoritarian epistemology of medieval religious doctrine and towards an empirical epistemology based on the scientific method. The Islamic world has not been through a similar shift, which could explain its current predicament. [...]

While the [Islamic] radicals permit no creativity in general, they exhibit great creativity in terms of tactics and the development of IEDs, bombs, and other weaponry. They are innovative in their uses of technology such as cellphones. But behind them are still the concepts of revenge, honor, and “face” mixed with resentment and envy of the West.

In a presentation delivered by Cynthia E. Ayers at a Proteus workshop in August 2006, she warns that the Bush administration’s offer of incentives for Iran to cease nuclear enrichment could “be interpreted by Iranian leaders as an offer to pay ‘tribute’ in submission to Islam.” The presentation concludes with the following slide:

While public attention has focused on Gawthrop’s presence at the FBI, documents from Proteus would suggest that the Islamophobic narratives in his presentations were common, if not actively encouraged, by the Department of Defense at the Army War College.

Yglesias

Marty Peretz Really Dislikes Arabs

Marty Peretz’s latest New Republic article is really worth reading in full. It’s an article about the Arab Spring. But like all Peretz articles, it’s really an article about how Palestinians deserve to live stateless and under occupation indefinitely. But at root, it’s just an article about how he dislikes Arabs. Nothing, after all, is actually said about Palestinians or Palestine until the very end. It’s a long recantation about the evils of the Saudi regime, about the problems of the Libyan revolution, about upheavals in Syria, etc. Lots of stuff out there for Peretz to dislike. And I join him in wishing that there were a bit more skepticism out there about the New Bosses in Libya. Then, finally, in the penultimate graph we get the point:

The fact is that Israel has stayed out of the ups and downs (and ins and outs) of the Arab Spring. But Assad’s menacing of the Jewish State in this circumstance is evidence of how hazardous any Israeli-Arab frontier line is. If I were an Israeli strategist I wouldn’t give up the Golan Heights for anything. And I surely wouldn’t go back to the 1949 lines either. Nor, for that matter, would I surrender the Jordan River (which is not “deep and wide,” despite what the folk song says, though it may be “chilly and cold”) either to the Hashemite kingdom or to the Palestinian rump.

The justification for this seems to be not much more than his hazy general dislike of Arabs. But the significance of the piece is not so much in the logic as in the conclusion. There’s no Bibi-ish deceptions here where Peretz pretends to favor a Palestinian State but oh here’s so many conditions to make it a joke. In the Peretz vision, Israel simply takes the parts of the West Bank it wants, controls the West Bank’s land border with Jordan, and leaves behind a “Palestinian Rump.” Because it can.

I’d recommend Nick Kristof as a useful counterpoint.

NEWS FLASH

Sen. Carper: Auditing Deficiencies Make It Nearly ‘Impossible’ To Know How DOD Spends Its Money | Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) today sent a letter to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta — who’s been battling against military spending cuts — urging him to address DOD’s arcane auditing system as part of the process of scaling down the Pentagon’s bloated budget, which has nearly doubled in the last decade. Carper listed off a series of easily identifiable savings from waste and abuse, including $720 million in late fees for shipping container leases, billions in cost overruns for weapons systems, and at least $200 million in delinquent debts owed. “DOD’s finances have been on GAO’s high-risk list since 1995,” Carper noted, adding, “in part due to pervasive management deficiencies that would never be tolerated in a private sector business and, in fact, aren’t tolerated even in most federal agencies.” Carper said that “these deficiencies make it difficult, if not impossible, to know for certain how and when the DOD spends its money.”

National Security Brief: October 6, 2011


– Reuters reports that “American militants like Anwar al-Awlaki are placed on a kill or capture list by a secretive panel of senior government officials, which then informs the president of its decisions.” The panel is made up of mid-level National Security Council officials and “neither is there any law establishing its existence or setting out the rules by which it is supposed to operate.”

– Despite shared celebration over the death of American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, tensions between the U.S. and Yemen are straining as Yemeni officials accuse the U.S. of not assisting the government in fighting Yemen’s pro-democracy insurgency while U.S. officials say Washington’s counterterrorism efforts in Yemen are limited to targeting al-Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate.

– Iraqi lawmakers said they’re considering a deal to extend a NATO training mission that could allow U.S. troops to stay as trainers beyond the year-end total withdrawal deadline. In that scenario, American troops would have the type of legal protections the U.S. is seeking.

– Multiple deployments and long stretches home between combat deployments increase the chances of mental health risks for U.S. armed service members, according to a study of nearly a million and half troops released by the Pentagon.

– NATO’s bombing campaign in Libya will continue until pockets of resistance are suppressed but Western and NATO officials say that discussions over when to end the seven month air war has become a source of friction in the alliance.

– Olli Heinonen, the former top U.N. nuclear inspector, said that despite some estimates, Iran would not be able to produce a nuclear weapon until 2013 at the earliest.

– House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) told reporters a bill in the Senate to curb Chinese currency manipulation was “a pretty dangerous thing,” causing Senate co-sponsor Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to fire back that not dealing with the manipulation was dangerous.

– The Syrian opposition pushed ahead with efforts to halt President Bashar al-Assad’s violent crackdown on protesters, while Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would move forward with sanctions despite failure of a U.N. measure condemning the violence.

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