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Security

Growing Instability In The Sinai: We’ve Been Warned

Sunday’s attacks on the the Gaza-Egypt-Israel border — in which gunmen stormed the Rafah border crossing, killed 16 Egyptian security officers, and then smashed through a barrier into Israel before being stopped and killed by Israeli forces — highlights the serious danger posed by an increasingly lawless Sinai region, in which extremists are gaining a stronger foothold.

Issander El Amrani has a good post on what is known about how the attacks went down, and the response by Israeli, Palestinian, and Egyptian authorities. What’s most worrying, according to El Amrani, “is the lack of law and order, and presence of the state, in Sinai since the January 2011 uprising — and the continuing absence of policies to deal with the neglect of this region for the last 30 years.”

I wrote about this last September and continue to believe that Egypt needs to act to reimpose itself strongly in the area: through a zero-tolerance for criminal gangs and armed groups, Bedouin or foreign, and through a genuine policy of development, job-creation and integration of Sinai into the national economy. It’s not easy, it’s long-overdue, and it needs to start sooner than later even if strong-arm tactics that will probably be involved may cause more trouble in the short-term.

The problem of security and growing extremism in the Sinai isn’t new. Here’s the New York Times reporting on it in 2005 and 2006. But with the Egyptian revolt, the end of Hosni Mubarak’s rule, and the creation of a new Egyptian government, even less attention has been paid, and the problem has gotten worse.

As a result of Sunday’s attack, an Egyptian security source told Reuters that Egypt would begin to seal off the smuggling tunnels the lie beneath the Egypt-Gaza border at Rafah.

Earlier this year, I visited Gaza, via the Sinai, and wrote about the massive, and hugely profitable, tunnel trade that has risen up as a result of the blockade enforced by both Israel and Egypt. The taxes levied on these smuggling activities are a key source of revenue for Gaza’s Hamas government, and smugglers on both the Egypt and Gaza side of the border are making lots of money off of them, so expect there to be a massive outcry if the Egyptian authorities attempt anything more than a symbolic sealing off of a few tunnels, as they have done in the past.

Commenting on the attack on Monday morning, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, “I think that the risk of a very large terrorist attack was averted, and this was a very important operational success in the battle that is raging there and maybe a proper wake-up call for the Egyptians to take matters into their own hands on their side in a stronger manner.” According to an IDF investigation of the events, the Israelis had intelligence that an attack was imminent, and took precautions. Information was also shared with the Egyptians, who apparently did not take the warnings seriously. Instead, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood nonsensically accused the Israeli spy agency Mossad of being behind Sunday’s attack in an effort to undermine Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Brotherhood.

When I visited Israel last month, the problem of the Sinai was often brought up in meetings with security officials, who noted that an attack on Israel emanating from there could very quickly escalate out of control. Thankfully, that didn’t happen here, but it’s a clear sign that it’s time to take security in the Sinai more seriously. In the words of one security analyst, the peace between Israel and Egypt forged by President Carter at Camp David in 1979 “is one of the most important accomplishments of the United States in the Middle East in the last forty years,” and it’s in the interest of all the parties to make sure that that peace does not unravel.

Politics

Republicans Blasted Obama Administration For Warning About Right-Wing Domestic Terrorism

Homeland Security Sec. Napolitano

The gunman in the shooting at a Sikh temple over the weekend has been labeled a potential domestic terrorist — defined as one who incites politically-motivated violence against his or her own country. In Wade Michael Page’s case, that political motivation was likely white supremacy, a growing problem in the United States.

But when, in 2009, the Department of Homeland Security reported that white supremacy is the US’s biggest threat for domestic terror, it was met with harsh criticism. Conservatives blasted the department for defining terror threats too broadly, instead of focusing on potential Islamic terrorists. Then-House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) was one of those who berated DHS, saying that they weren’t focusing on the real threats the US faces:

[T]he Secretary of Homeland Security owes the American people an explanation for why she has abandoned using the term ‘terrorist’ to describe those, such as al Qaeda, who are plotting overseas to kill innocent Americans, while her own Department is using the same term to describe American citizens who disagree with the direction Washington Democrats are taking our nation. Everyone agrees that the Department should be focused on protecting America, but using such broad-based generalizations about the American people is simply outrageous.

The report was titled “Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment,” and it named white supremacists, radical anti-abortionists, and a few “disgruntled veterans” as most susceptible to recruitment by extremist groups, or to harboring resentment that may lead to domestic terrorism. DHS stressed that, during recessions, these threats go up, and law enforcement should be on the lookout for such extremism:

DHS/I&A has concluded that white supremacist lone wolves pose the most significant domestic terrorist threat because of their low profile and autonomy—separate from any formalized group—which hampers warning efforts..[...]

Returning veterans possess combat skills and experience that are attractive to rightwing extremists. DHS/I&A is concerned that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to boost their violent capabilities.

The report’s findings were congruous with previous studies that indicate right wing extremism is responsible for more instances of violence every year (with the exception of 2001, when the September 11th attacks happened) in the United States than Islamic extremist. It also tracks with the rise of hate groups in the US since 2000.

Sec. Janet Napolitano ended up withdrawing the report and apologizing to veterans who felt they’d been called out, stressing that the threat was limited to a very small number of veterans.

Page, the Sikh temple shooter, was one of these veterans. According to Oak Creek, Wisconsin law enforcement, he served in the army from 1992 to 1998. He was administratively discharged in 1998, and had a known “patterns of misconduct.” After leaving the service, he was arrested twice, once for a DUI and once for criminal mischief — both in the 1990s.

The gunman had also been tracked by the Southern Poverty Law Center for around a decade because of his ties to white supremacy groups. While he apparently “popped up” on the FBI’s radar about six years ago, it seems they had no active investigation.

National Security Brief: McKeon Bucks The Labor Department


– The House Armed Services Committee chairman Howard “Buck” McKeon (R-CA) told members of the defense industry to ignore the Labor Department‘s guidance to defense contractors that they’re not required to send pre-election layoff warnings to their employees.

– The New York Times reports: Using its New York-based operations, a major British bank schemed with the Iranian government for nearly a decade to launder $250 billion, leaving the United States financial system vulnerable to terrorists and corrupt regimes.

– The Defense Department will encourage companies to build solar power plants and wind farms on 16 million acres of open land surrounding military bases, making each base less dependent on the nation’s aging electricity grid.

– A Syrian opposition source told U.S. News & World Report that nearly 20 high-ranking Syrian military officers defected to Turkey on Monday the same day former Prime Minister Riad Hijab had defected to Jordan.

– Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said yesterday that a terrorist attack that killed 15 Egyptian soldiers on Sunday night should serve as “a wake-up call” to the new Egyptian president about the growing danger in the Sinai Peninsula and the border between the two nations.

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