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Poll: Jewish-American Voters Overwhelmingly Support President Obama

Seventy percent of Jewish-American voters supported President Obama last night. That’s according to a poll published today by “pro-Israel, pro-peace” group J Street. The poll, administered by Jim Gerstein, a veteran pollster of Gerstein Bocian Agne Strategies, also found that Jewish-American voters overwhelmingly supported Obama on Iran: 58 percent sided with the President on this issue as opposed to 26 percent with Mitt Romney. Furthermore, 53 percent of Jewish-American voters supported Obama’s on Israel; as opposed to Romney’s 31 percent. The poll results indicate that the millions spent on ads in swing states like Florida that attacked the Obama administration for his handling of Israel and Iran failed to make a difference.

Indeed, according to Gerstein, Obama’s numbers among Jewish-American voters are in line with the “average received by Democratic candidates since exit polling began in 1972.” Gerstein himself added that the poll results make the point clear: Jewish-American voters “won’t be swayed by the latest campaign or attack.” In fact, 78 percent of Jewish-American voters who saw ads that “criticized President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel” were either “more likely to support” the President or said that the ads “made no difference” in who they were going to vote for. Only 23 percent of Jewish-Americans said the ads made them “more likely to support Mitt Romney.”

When it came to attacks, the Romney campaign tried all angles. Romney famously went after the president for having “thrown allies like Israel under the bus.” He added to his criticism at the foreign policy debate in October, where he said there was “turmoil with Israel.” Romney’s running mate Paul Ryan jumped on the issue as well, at one point describing President Obama’s treatment of Israel as “indifference bordering on contempt.” In September, Romney backer and wealthy casino mogul Sheldon Adelson started spending, according to the New York Times, “$6.5 million on an air-and-ground strategy to reach Jewish voters who may view Mr. Obama as unreliable on the question of Israel’s security.” The same September Times article found that Florida was “where the largest share of the $6.5 million is being spent.” But it seems Adelson’s money had little impact; in Florida, President Obama beat Mitt Romney on the issue of Israel by 32 percentage points and on the issue of Iran by 27 percentage points.

In the end, it wasn’t just the issue of Israel that turned Jewish-American voters against Mitt Romney and toward President Obama. On economic issues like Medicare and Social Security, the president held comfortable double-digit leads; similarly, in swing states like Florida, the president achieved a significant amount of support from Jewish-American voters on economic and foreign policy related issues.

According to Gerstein, “only 10 percent cited Israel as one of its
two most important issues.” In a press release on the results, Gerstein adds that “notably, the least important issue for Jewish voters was Iran (2 percent).”

5 Overlooked Foreign Policy Challenges Of Obama’s Second Term

As President Obama’s electoral victory continues to sink in, many have already begun to refocus on the many foreign policy issues overshadowed by the race for the White House. Most rapid analysis has focused on those items that always seem to top such lists: ongoing issues in the Middle East, the winding down of the war in Afghanistan, and possible confrontations with China. Rather than rehashing those matters, here’s five issues that while they may be less discussed will definitely help shape Obama’s second term:

MEXICO

Absolutely ignored during the general debate, and only brought up the the myopic frame of border security during the Republican primaries, President Obama will eventually be forced to confront the instability in Mexico. President Felipe Calderon’s six-year war against the drug cartels has yielded an estimated 50,000 deaths just south of the U.S. border as of August. The bloodiest of the gangs, the Zetas, have made it their strategy to consolidate control over large swaths of territory in their entirety. By conquering all elements of crime and supplanting the government, the Zetas now control the third-largest state in Mexico. As President Enrique Pena Nieto takes office next month, Obama needs to work closely with his counterpart at finally developing a strategy for cooperation.

NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

During Obama’s first term, there was a rhetorical emphasis on nuclear disarmament, with the President calling for a world free of nuclear weapons in 2009. Obama then launched the Nuclear Security Summit in 2010, became the first sitting President to chair the U.N. Security Council during a high-level meeting on nuclear non-proliferation, and achieved passage of the New START Treaty with Russia.

Since 2010, however, North Korea has proved to be unwilling to roll-back its nuclear weapons program despite substantial concessions from the U.S. Russia has likewise opted to walk away from the Nunn-Lugar agreement, saying they can now safeguard nuclear material throughout the former Soviet Union without the United States. Obama next has the chance to show American leadership on the issue at the Helsinki Conference on a Nuclear-Free Middle East later this year, possibly bringing Iran and Israel both to the table.

EUROZONE

While also completely forgotten during the election, Europe is nowhere near out of the woods yet in ending its ongoing economic crisis. On Wednesday, the European Commission revised its projected growth for the Eurozone from 1 percent to 0.1 percent. The ongoing economic instability continues to rattle financial markets, making it clear that the United States’ economic recovery remains closely tied to Europe’s. Obama made significant progress at the last meeting of the Group of 20 in forcing Europe to take strong action, counter to Germany’s prescribed austerity measures. It’ll take even more leadership over the next four years to ensure Europe pulls out of its tailspin.

STRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL LAW

Far more so than if Mitt Romney had won, a second term for President Obama can be expected to include a strengthening of the role of international law in the world. First, the President can showcase the U.S. commitment to international law through the signing and ratification of new treaties, including final passage of the Law of the Sea Treaty in Senate or a United States-led push on climate change, a subject finally mentioned by Obama in his victory speech. Obama will also likely continue to strongly hold other states accountable to their obligations under international law and bolster support for those adhering to the rule of law. Such an approach has been, and will continue to be, key in Obama’s strategy towards China, particularly in its territorial dispute with Japan.

AFRICA PIVOT

Though it’s gotten far less press than the much-more publicized “Asia Pivot,” the increased flow of resources to Africa during the Obama administration can’t be denied. The shift has been part of Obama’s fight against terrorist groups globally, including the launch of drone strikes from Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti and providing support for Kenya’s fighting al-Shabab in Somalia. The U.S. also currently provides military training and support to armies throughout the continent, such as the task force helping Uganda hunt war -criminal Joseph Kony. As questions of how to handle al Qaeda-related or branded groups in Africa, such as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Mali, continue to grow, Africa will remain closer to the forefront of Obama’s foreign policy than many realize.

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Embraces Direct Negotiations Between U.S. And Iran

Today Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon became the most prominent Israeli official to embrace the idea of direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

Previously, other Israeli officials have reportedly supported the idea of direct negotiations.

But now Ayalon spoke more directly when commenting on President Obama’s re-election, saying to Israeli press, “Obama, certainly in the short term, will be much more effective, because he already has a formulated policy. There could be direct negotiations with Iran.”

In October, the New York Times first reported that the administration had agreed “in principle” to direct negotiations with Iran after the election. Almost immediately, both the administration and Iranian officials denied the existence of any agreement. Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., said “we do not think Iran should be rewarded with direct talks.” Ayalon’s comment today may suggest a different line of thinking in the Israeli government and comes on the same day that Mohammad Javad Larijani, an influential Iranian official, said it is “not taboo” to have direct negotiations with the U.S.

Several former high-level Israel intelligence officials, like Efraim Halevy, have welcomed the idea of direct negotiations as well. Halevy, speaking to Al-Monitor, said a few weeks ago:

“I realized that dialogue with an enemy is essential. There is nothing to lose. Although the claim was, if you talk to them, you legitimize them. But by not talking to them, you don’t de-legitimate them. So this convinced me, that we all have been very superficial in dealing with our enemies. Not everything you try succeeds. But you have to be willing to try.”

Others, like Amos Yadlin, a former high-level intelligence official in Israel, spoke positively of direct negotiations. Yadlin, in a paper co-written with Avner Golov, said of direct negotiations:

“This degree of backpedalling, a complete U-turn from its official policy, is indicative of the effectiveness of the pressure exerted on Iran, and a signal of its capacity to bring about real change in the country’s policy.”

Yadlin and Golov added that “If the negotiations fail, the argument that all other options have been exhausted will be stronger, and there’s no way to prevent Iran’s nuclearization except a military strike.”

Update

Back in August, Ayalon sounded much different about the prospects of talks between the West and Iran. Ayalon said back then that those nations involved in the Iran negotiations should “declare today that the talks have failed.”

5 International Elections To Fill The Post-Nov. 6 Void


With the U.S. election finally over, it’s entirely possible that some poll junkies are already looking for their next fix. While some may be jumping ahead to the 2014 midterms, or even the 2016 Presidential race, an easier solution would be to look at the multitude of elections coming up around the world. According to the National Democratic Institute’s 2012-2013 election calendar, there are still plenty of races to keep an eye on while the U.S. settles down.

Japan

Japan currently doesn’t have elections officially scheduled, though they must be held no later than May 2013. But in August 2011, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda promised that elections would be held “soon.” Since then, Noda has said that he is in no hurry to open the polls, fearing a “political vacuum” in the run-up to the vote and facing a fiscal cliff of its own at the end of November.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party is particularly interested in having the chance for his party to reclaim control of the Cabinet given unpopularity of the Democratic Party of Japan in opinion polls. No matter who wins the eventual election, both Abe and Noda are signaling that a more muscular foreign policy may be ahead for Japan.

South Korea

The Republic of Korea’s Presidential race will conclude on Dec. 19. Leading the polls is Park Geun-hye, heading the Saenuri, or New Frontier Party. Park is the daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, who held power for sixteen years following a 1961 military coup and his election in 1963. Park has defended her father’s actions in the past, saying “I don’t think it’s the place of politicians to be fighting over whether [Park's rise to power was] a ‘coup d’etat’ or a ‘revolution.”

Park’s main competitors, Moon Jae-in, nominated to head the Democratic United Party following the end of current President Lee Myung-bak’s term, and independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo merged campaigns recently. Park is seeking to keep pressure on the duo though by pledging to ease Lee’s hardline stance against North Korea, even indicating that she’d be willing to meet with new North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un.

Israel

Israel will be choosing members of the 19th Knesset on Jan. 22, 2013. Israeli lawmakers voted on Oct. 16 to dissolve and move elections up from October 2013. In a surprise move, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avadgor Lieberman then announced the merger of their two parties as the new Likud Beiteinu.

Many experts have said it’s nearly impossible for the center and left-wing parties in Israel win, though Netanyahu’s new party may not wield quite as much power as currently thought. However, it’s unclear what a dominant Likud Beiteninu means for negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and it looks like more heated rhetoric toward Iran is on the horizon.

Iran

Iran won’t be holding its presidential election until June 2013, but it’s worth it to starting to watch now. The race to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has yet to solidify into solid candidates, but speculation is already occurring. Some believe that Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, an ally of Ahmadinejad, may be being groomed to take over in 2013, despite Mashaei’s run-in with conservatives. Ali Akbar Velayati, former Foreign Minister of Iran, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate. Velayati has the advantage of having Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s ear and a history of work on difficult negotiations.

Whatever the result , the un-elected Khamenei holds the real power in the Islamic Republic. While Ahmadinejad has already started to feel the effect of his lame-duck status, whomever wins in June won’t wield the power that many associate with so high an office.

China

The Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress is kicking-off and in a completely choreographed event, over two thousand delegates will come together to begin the process that ends with current Vice President Xi Jinping being named the party’s leader and thus head of state. These delegates — who are not democratically elected — will still cast votes for those who eventually will winnow down to the either seven or nine members that will form the Politburo Standing Committee, the head of the country.

The Congress will also decide who sits on the Central Military Commission and amend the Party’s Constitution. All told, the Congress will usher in a new generation of Chinese leaders, though the previous may still seek a large role in determining China’s direction.

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