Two years after the first protests roiled through the streets of Syria’s cities, what was once another potential victory for the Arab Spring has turned into a long slog of the hardship and chaos of civil war as President Bashar al-Assad clings to power.

At the outset of the pro-democracy protests in Syria, headlines announced the deaths of demonstrators at the hands of state security forces in the single digits. As time wore on, more and greater violence was unleashed against civilians, including the use of armored vehicles, fixed-wing aircraft and mortars against whole neighborhoods. The result can be seen in the conflict’s staggering numbers:

• Syrians Killed: 70,000
• Refugees in Neighboring States: 1.1 million
• Internally Displaced People: 2.5 million
• U.S. Humanitarian Aid to Syria: $385 million
• Total Humanitarian Budget Shortfall: $700 million

Beyond the loss of life, as early as June 2011, Human Rights Watch was reporting on the Syrian government’s widespread use of torture, extrajudicial executions and detention of medical patients. The conditions have only worsened over time, with Syria’s rebel groups now also partaking in atrocities, as chronicled by a U.N. panel. The International Committee of the Red Cross on Friday appealed to world powers to press all-sides to end the atrocities against civilians and aid workers.

As the conflict enters its third year, the current debate on Syria revolves around whether Western powers should join states in the Persian Gulf in arming Syria’s rebels directly. The rebels now hold a large swath of territory in the north and west of the country, but frequently complain of their inability to counter the heavy arms the government can access. France and the United Kingdom on Thursday announced that they are willing to circumvent a European Union arms embargo on Syria, against the wishes of Germany. The concern remains, however, that the arms provided could fall into the hands of the several jihadist groups that have also joined in the fighting in Syria.

The United States has thus far refrained from sending arms, but has not taken a hands-off approach to the crisis. instead opting to send non-lethal aid — in the form of food, body armor, radios and other equipment — and military training. Rep. Elliot Engel (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has introduced a bill in the House to arm the rebels after all. Elliot’s bill, however, falls short of the desire of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and others in the Republican Party for the U.S. tomilitarily intervene directly in Syria.

Protesters in Jordan continued calling for an end to King Abdullah II’s regime for the second straight day on Friday, as 2,000 people gathered in downtown Amman to protest price increases and subsidy cuts. On November 15, nearly 4,000 protesters in Amman adopted the unofficial slogan of uprisings across the Arab world for the first time: “The people want the downfall of the regime.”

Protests turned violent earlier this week, as people opposed to price increases and subsidy cuts clashed with police. Wednesday’s demonstrations resulted in the first protest-related death Jordan has experienced since uprisings began around the Arab world in early 2011.

Jordan’s protests have mostly been driven by economic grievances, rather than political. King Abdullah is generally well-liked, and he has made an effort to accommodate reformers’ requests, though critics say he’s moved too slowly. For example, in August, he accepted constitutional reforms placing some limits on his power. Subsidies are another important tool the regime uses to stop serious protests from breaking out, but a budget shortfall of almost $3 billion is forcing the government to make cuts. Corporate tax rates were expected to increase, businesses’ electricity rates went up, the price of high-octane gasoline climbed 25 percent, and subsidies for cooking oil and other fuels have been cut.

Though the government has fairly strong institutions, which some argue may prevent regime collapse, the demographic makeup of Jordan is similar to that of other Arab countries that have faced serious unrest and should be a cause for concern. Namely, it is a young country — almost 70 percent of the population is less than 30 years old — with a youth unemployment rate approaching 28 percent. In addition, over 14 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and it is home to almost 3 million Palestinian refugees.

Demographics are not the sole factor to determine whether protesters’ goals shift from reform to revolution, of course, but they play an important role. There is no guarantee Jordan is heading down the path countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen have traveled, but the outbreak of violence is worrying.

– Greg Noth

Mitt Romney has spent considerable effort trying to avoid foreign policy and national security this campaign season. But when he’s had to engage, he’s forced to strike a delicate balance between satisfying his neocon advisers and right-wing war base on the one hand — while speaking to the rest of the country, which has no appetite for the militaristic Republican policies that have plagued this country since 2001, on the other.

In recent weeks, Romney made good on a promise he made earlier this year to a wealthy donor that he would try to exploit a foreign policy crisis for political gain. “If something of that nature presents itself,” Romney said, referring to the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979, “I will work to find a way to take advantage of the opportunity.” With the attack that killed four Americans at the U.S diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya last month, Romney has done just that.

The basis of Romney’s foreign policy critique of President Obama is that Obama went around the world and apologized for America after he became president. Of course, this never happened, but the baseless attack has been a hallmark from Romney’s campaign with respect to foreign policy. Indeed, Romney’s foray into foreign policy has been a bumpy road. Here’s a timeline from throughout the 2012 presidential campaign that lays it all out:

– Romney accused President Obama of “mission creep” and “mission muddle” in Libya. “Military action cannot be under-deliberated and ad hoc,” he said. Libyan rebels ousted then-Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi five months later. (In his book, Romney attacked Obama for appeasing Qaddafi.) [4/21/2011]

– Romney announces he is officially running for president and, in doing so, chides Obama for “leading from behind” in Libya. One wonders if Romney would criticize Nelson Mandela, who once said: “It is better to lead from behind and to put others in front, especially when you celebrate victory when nice things occur. You take the front line when there is danger. Then people will appreciate your leadership.” [6/02/2011]

– Romney says he will let the generals dictate his Afghanistan policy. “I want those troops to come home based upon not politics, not based upon economics, but instead based upon the conditions on the ground determined by the generals,” he said. [6/13/2011]
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In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner (OH) said his positions on whether or not to intervene militarily in Syria were closer to the Obama administration’s than to fellow Congressional Republicans.

While the Obama administration has reportedly given some support to regional allies’ efforts to arm rebels, as well as some other support, the U.S. has eschewed direct military involvement in the intensifying civil war. Right-wing hawks in Congress, led by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), have called on the administration to directly arm rebels and even carry out U.S. air strikes.

Blitzer asked Boehner directly about U.S. military intervention and whether his position put him closer to the Obama administration than McCain:

BLITZER: Would you support U.S. military action, not necessarily troops on the ground, but air power, cruise missiles, arming of the rebels?

Would you go that far at this point to get rid of Bashar al- Assad?

BOEHNER: I don’t think that — that we ought to go that far. Now, it’s clear that the opposition is making progress. It’s also clear that they are receiving assistance from their friends in the region.

And I don’t think, at this point that it calls for that type of military intervention on our part.

BLITZER: So, on this issue, you’re with the Obama administration, basically, and not, let’s say, with John McCain?

BOEHNER: I’ve — probably correct, because I believe that Assad has to go. But I don’t think that we need to overly involve ourselves to the extent of direct military action.

Watch the video:

Boehner’s position puts him in line with U.S. public opinion. A CNN poll last month found that, overall, six in ten Americans don’t want to get militarily involved in the civil war. According to those results, Boehner is also in line with adherents of his own party. 58 percent of Republicans agreed that the U.S. shouldn’t get involved.

Boehner noted that the Syrian rebels made recent, if sometimes fleeting, gains with the reported killings of four top officials from Bashar al-Assad’s embattled regime and the seizure of some border crossings.

In an interview with CNN, one of the top officials that recently defected from embattled president Bashar al-Assad’s regime said he favors a military intervention to dislodge the government there. The Syrian ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf al Fares defected last week and, since, appeared in the press to denounce his Assad’s 17-month crackdown against anti-government demonstrators — a conflict the Red Cross declared a full-blown civil war.

On CNN, Fares said Assad held sole power to make decions in a “totalitarian regime and a dictatorship.” He served the Assad family for 34 years but turned against them when his hopes for reform were dashed by “what happened in the last year during the holy revolution, all of the killing, the massacres, the refugees, and the declaration of war by Bashar al Assad against the Syrian people.”

Asked by CNN if he favored foreign military intervention, Fares said only force could topple Assad:

CNN: Do you want a military intervention in Syria by foreign powers?

FARES: This regime will not go without force. the suffering of the Syrian people is very great. And they want it to end by any way possible. I support military intervention because I know the nature of this regime. This regime will only go with force.

Watch the interview here:

His call came after reports last week of another massacre (some of the details have been called into question). Another army defector called for NATO airstrikes to assassinate Assad, but NATO seems to still be deferring to U.N. processes that are largely blocked by Syria’s ally Russia.

While the exiled representatives of the political opposition have been unable to unite, defections bolster their cause. In addition to Fares, a top general and Assad confidant defected two weeks ago, but failed to surface. Other generals, however, have joined the rebel leadership in Turkey, and, according to reports, “virtually none” of the 80,000 conscripts due to join the army this year reported for duty.

While Assad’s minority Allawite sect rules Syria, the military depends on the Sunni majority to fill its ranks. But many Sunnis are joining the opposition. Its strength was on display today with increased fighting in the once quiet capital, Damascus.