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Economy

Bernanke: Returning To Gold Standard ‘Would Not Be Feasible For Practical And Policy Reasons’

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reacted to conservatives across the country who have pushed for a return to the gold standard today, saying such a move “would not be feasible for practical and policy reasons.” Bernanke’s answer was in response to a question during his lecture about the history of the Federal Reserve today at George Washington University.

Returning to the gold standard wouldn’t be practical because there isn’t enough gold, Bernanke said. And even if it was practical, he added, it would be disastrous from a policy standpoint, preventing the Fed from responding to drastic rises in unemployment or rapid inflation or deflation during economic downturns. Committing to the gold standard, Bernanke said, “would mean we are swearing that no matter how bad unemployment gets, we aren’t going to do anything about it”:

STUDENT: Why is there an argument — some argument — for returning to the gold standard, and is it even possible?

BERNANKE: [...] I think, though, that the gold standard would not be feasible for both practical reasons and policy reasons. On the practical side there’s just not enough gold to meet the needs of a worldwide gold standard. But more fundamentally than that, the world has changed. [...] In a modern world, the commitment to the gold standard would mean that we are swearing that under no circumstances, no matter how bad unemployment gets, are we going to do anything about it using monetary policy.

Watch it:

Conservatives around the country have pushed for a return to the gold standard, particularly since Bernanke’s Fed took sweeping monetary policy actions to combat the Great Recession. In state houses across the country, Republicans have pushed bills that would declare the dollar unconstitutional or force taxpayers to pay the government in only gold or silver. Goldbug fever also swept the Republican presidential primary, as candidates (besides long-time gold standard advocate Ron Paul) spoke at pro-gold standard events and stumped for it on the trail.

But as Bernanke noted, returning to the gold standard would have perilous consequences for the American economy. The American economy, he noted, was more prone to recessions before the gold standard was dropped, and, as with the Great Depression, the gold standard tends to make such downturns even more painful. “If you look at actual history, you’ll see that the gold standard didn’t work that well,” Bernanke said. “Indeed…there’s a good bit of evidence that the gold standard was one of the main reasons that the Depression was so deep and long.”

NEWS FLASH

Economists Push Congress To Extend Soon-To-Expire Payroll Tax Cut | Both Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi testified before Congress today, telling lawmakers that they should extend the payroll tax cut that is set to expire at the end of the year so as not to undermine the fragile economic recovery. “A self-sustaining economic expansion is close at hand, but only if policy makers do not pull their support from the economy too quickly,” Zandi said in prepared remarks. “Not extending these programs would deliver a significant blow to the still-tentative economy.”

Economy

In 2006, Fed Predicted ‘At Worst, An Orderly Decline In The Housing Market’

The Federal Reserve yesterday released transcripts from 2006 (full official transcripts of Fed meetings are released five years after the meetings occur), which shed some light on how badly the Fed misinterpreted the housing bubble. “I really believe that the drop in housing is actually on net going to make liquidity available for other sectors rather than being a drain going forward, and that will also get the growth rate more positive,” said then Fed member Susan Bies. “Housing is a relatively small sector of the economy, and its decline should be self-correcting,” added Janet Yellen, now the Fed’s vice chairman.

Dallas Fed Chairman Richard Fisher said that, “as one CEO told me, the only subject that has been more analyzed than the housing situation is the birth of Brad Pitt’s baby.” Chairman Ben Bernanke, meanwhile, predicted “at worst, an orderly decline in the housing market,” while now Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (then president of the New York Federal Reserve) said, “we think the fundamentals of the expansion going forward still look good.”

The Fed’s perspective is perhaps best summed up by Gary Stern, then president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, in a March 2006 meeting:

I thought I would comment a bit more on two issues in particular—one is housing—where I wonder if the significance of potential developments might not be being exaggerated a bit. I certainly agree that changes in housing prices, up or down, feed into household wealth and through that into consumer spending. I think that’s a perfectly acceptable story. So if housing prices go down or level off, they will have that effect on wealth and potentially on spending.

But there seems to be a view that, in some sense, an exogenous pronounced decline in housing prices is possible, maybe even likely, and that this could be more devastating for the economy. It’s not that I would quibble with that story, but I would wonder about its likelihood because it seems to me more likely that housing is the tail rather than the dog in this. That is, as long as employment continues to go up, incomes continue to go up, and mortgage rates remain relatively moderate, then I would expect that we would avoid severe difficulties in housing except for a few markets that are particularly inflated at this point.

From the transcripts, it becomes clear that Fed officials thought the economy supported the housing market. But it was actually the other way around: the housing sector was supporting the economy. Meanwhile, the nation’s biggest banks had entwined themselves (via the housing market, which they were helping prop up with predatory subprime loans) to such an extent that when housing finally declined, the whole system fell apart.

NEWS FLASH

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke On Occupy Wall Street: ‘I Can’t Blame Them’ | During a hearing before the Joint Economic Committee yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was asked about the ongoing Occupy Wall Street protests that have spread from New York City to cities across the country. He said he “can’t blame” protesters for taking to the streets, considering continued high employment and slow economic growth. “They blame, with some justification, the financial sector for getting us into this mess,” Bernanke said:

BERNANKE: I would just say very generally, I think people are quite unhappy with the state of the economy and what’s happening. They blame, with some justification, the problems in the financial sector for getting us into this mess, and they’re dissatisfied with the policy response here in Washington. And at some level, I can’t blame them. Certainly, 9 percent unemployment and very slow growth is not a good situation.

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NEWS FLASH

Bernanke To Congress: Don’t Cut Government Spending Too Quickly | In a major speech in Minneapolis today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress that cutting too much government spending too quickly would imperil the economic recovery. “While prompt and decisive action to put the federal government’s finances on a sustainable trajectory is urgently needed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence, disregard the fragility of the economic recovery,” Bernanke said. “In the absence of adequate demand from the private sector, a substantial fiscal consolidation in the shorter term could add to the headwinds facing economic growth and hiring,” he added.

Economy

Palin Agrees With Perry About ‘Treasonous’ Fed Chair: ‘Perhaps I Would Have Used Similar Terms’

ThinkProgress caught Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) this week saying that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s actions to stimulate the economy are “treasonous” and issuing a veiled threat of violence against the Fed chief. “If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I dunno what y’all would do to him in Iowa but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas,” Perry said.

Several Republicans have called Perry out for using this sort of language. 2012 presidential hopeful Rick Santorum said that Perry’s remarks were “completely out of bounds.” “You can’t be calling Bernanke a traitor,” said Rep. Peter King (R-NY). “Intimating the Federal Reserve Chairman is guilty of treason is not going to create more confidence in voters about you,” added Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH).

Former Reagan and George H.W. Bush economic adviser Bruce Bartlett labeled Perry “an idiot” for his remarks. However, one GOP’er doesn’t think that Perry went too far. During an interview with Lou Dobbs on Fox Business, former half-term governor Sarah Palin said that she might “have used similar terms” to describe Bernanke’s actions:

PALIN: [Perry] called it like he saw it and I always respect people for doing so. What Governor Perry is voicing concern about is something I wrote about on Facebook pages about ten months ago, this quantitative easing or monetizing our debt, essentially printing money out of thin air, which will eventually devalue our dollar and, I think, lead to inflation, in order to make it look like our debt isn’t as bad as it really is, and Governor Perry was voicing great concerns that many of us share. He just used some more candid terms, I think, than some of us would have used.

DOBBS: Even you?

PALIN: Well, yeah, that’s a good point. Perhaps I would have used similar terms. But I do share his concern though.

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Palin, of course, is no stranger to violent rhetoric of her own. Perry, for his part, is standing by his remarks, telling CNN, “I am just passionate about the issue and we stand by what we said.” “The governor is going to continue talking about getting America back to work in a tone that everyone understands,” added a campaign spokesperson. Not only were Perry’s remarks atrocious, but he also seemed to be admitting that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing would be good for the economy.

Politics

Rick Santorum: Rick Perry’s Attack On Ben Bernanke ‘Completely Out Of Bounds’

Yesterday, ThinkProgress caught Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) on video threatening Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke during a trip to Iowa. Perry, the latest Republican to announce a campaign for the White House, called any effort by the Fed to provide monetary stimulus “treasonous in my opinion” and added that he would treat Bernanke “pretty ugly down in Texas.” On CNN this afternoon, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), another candidate in the race, slammed Perry’s comment and said any suggestion of treason is pure politics:

KING: What do you mean by he stepped on it?

SANTORUM: Well his comments about Ben Bernanke, they were completely out of bounds. I don’t agree with Ben Bernanke’s policies… but to me the rhetoric that Rick Perry used was sort of the rhetoric I would expect from a John Conyers, talking about President Bush and saying he should be impeached. We don’t do that. We don’t impeach people, we don’t charge people with treason because we disagree with them on public policy. You might say that they’re wrong, you might say lots of things about how misguided they are, but you don’t up the ante to that type of rhetoric. It’s out of place, and hopefully Gov. Perry will step back and recognize that we’re not in Texas anymore.

As Politico’s Alexander Burns notes, “Santorum’s point is that Perry sounds radical and irresponsible. Bringing impeachment into the picture may not be the best rhetorical choice, given that Santorum voted to convict Bill Clinton in impeachment proceedings back in the day.”

Politics

Former Bush Aides Slam Perry’s Bernanke Comments: ‘Inappropriate And Unpresidential,’ Too ‘Cowboy’

Former aides to President George W. Bush are suggesting Texas Gov. Rick Perry is not presidential material in the wake of his comments yesterday that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may be guilty of “treason” and would be treated “pretty ugly down in Texas.”

Former Bush Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto spoke out against Perry’s comments just moments after ThinkProgress first reported them, writing on Twitter that the they were “inappropriate and unpresidential.”

This morning, Nicolle Wallace, who served as White House Communications Director in Bush’s second term, said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that “someone who wants to be the next president probably shouldn’t use these words” and agreed that Republicans should “lay off of some of this some personal stuff and keep it ideological.” “Not only is it going to maybe turn off some people in the middle, but these aren’t fights that are going to serve Perry well politically,” she added.

Key Bush aide Karl Rove appeared on Fox News later in the morning, where he called Perry’s comments “very unfortunate” and not “presidential“:

It’s his first time on the national stage, and it was a very unfortunate comment. You don’t accuse the chairman of the federal reserve of being a traitor to his country and being guilty of treason and suggesting that we treat him pretty ugly in Texas — that’s not, again, a presidential statement. [...] Governor Perry is going to have to fight the impression that he’s a cowboy from Texas, this simply added to it.

Peter Wehner, who served as Deputy Assistant to Bush and Director of the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives, wrote a post on Commentary magazine’s blog calling the comments irresponsible “libel” and urged Perry to apologize for them:

People shouldn’t throw around the words “almost treasonous” loosely; and certainly a person running for president shouldn’t do such a thing. To say someone is treasonous means he is a traitor to his country. In the long catalogue of crimes an individual can commit, there are not many that are worse than treason. [...] But Perry should offer a substantive critique of Bernanke’s policies, not libel the man…it’s not helpful to our country. [...] In the meantime Perry ought to offer a retraction and apology — and then offer a serious intellectual critique of why he believes Ben Bernanke is pursuing injurious policies.

Bush’s and Perry’s supporters have clashed before, as many Bush aides supported Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s (R-TX) failed bid to oust Perry in a 2010 primary challenge, and this latest incident appears to confirm a growing rift between the camps. If Perry is too “cowboy” for even Bush loyalists, as Rove suggested, he’s taking cowboy politics to new heights.

NEWS FLASH

Perry on Bernanke: ‘I dunno what y’all would do to him in Iowa but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas’ | Texas Governor Rick Perry, who entered the presidential campaign on Saturday, appeared to suggest a violent response would be warranted should Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “print more money” between now and the election. Speaking just now in Iowa, Perry said, “If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I dunno what y’all would do to him in Iowa but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treasonous in my opinion.” Treason is a capital offense.

Update

On Twitter, Tony Fratto, former Deputy Press Secretary to George W. Bush, called Perry’s remarks “inappropriate and unpresidential.”

NEWS FLASH

Fed Chairman And Congressional Budget Office Confirm Spending Cuts Will Harm Economy | Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at a press conference today reiterated his view that short-term spending cuts will harm the economic recovery and lead to job losses. “I don’t think that sharp, immediate cuts in the deficit would create more jobs,” he said. “I think in the short run, you know, the fiscal tightening is at best neutral and probably somewhat negative for job creation.” This hews closely to an analysis released today by the Congressional Budget Office, which found that implementing cuts “while economic activity and employment remain well below their potential levels would probably slow the economic recovery.” Still, Congressional Republicans keep pushing the lie that spending cuts will spur job creation, and seem to be winning over the public, as a majority of Americans (including 40 percent of Democrats) believe that spending cuts will increase job growth.

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