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Economy

VIDEO: Deja Vu All Over Again — GOP Intransigence On Taxes Edition

As the deadline nears for the Congressional super committee to finalize a deal to address the nation’s deficit, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Republicans and Democrats on the committee will be unable to reach an accord. By now, the nature and cause of the impasse should be bitterly familiar to most Americans: Congressional Republicans refusal to consider tax increases as a means to reduce the deficit. After insisting on an extension of the Bush tax rates for the wealthy — which alone will blow at least a $670 billion hole in the U.S. budget — and receiving an agreement from Democrats to cut nearly a trillion dollars in spending, Republicans have offered a paltry $300 billion in new revenue. At the same time, the top Republican on the committee has declared that every “penny” in additional revenue is a “step in the wrong direction.”

This dance should by now be familiar. This past summer, during the debt ceiling negotiations which produced the super committee, the Republicans nearly drove the country into financial default by refusing to allow tax rate increases even as they insisted that Democrats make up the difference in deficit reduction through trillions in destructive spending cuts. Indeed, Standard & Poors specifically cited the GOP’s intransigence on revenue raising when it downgraded the United States’ credit rating.

And before that, in a budget deal hammered out last December, Republicans established their ongoing theme by refusing to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for even the top brackets — at a cost of $133 billion, and benefiting a mere 4.8 million people.

ThinkProgress has compiled the video evidence of the GOP’s singular ongoing obsession. Watch it:

Economy

Super Committee Republicans’ ‘Deficit Reduction’ Plan Includes $800 Billion In Tax Cuts

The congressional fiscal super committee that is tasked with crafting a deficit reduction package of at least $1.5 trillion met today with the architects of the Bowles-Simpson and Rivlin-Domenici deficit reduction plans. Both Democrats and Republicans have recently released their initial offers to the super committee, which seems no nearer to cutting a final deal than it did when it was first formed.

As Igor Volsky noted earlier this week, the plan that the Democratic members of the super committee released is well to the right of bipartisan plans like Bowles-Simpson or the plan crafted by the Senate’s Gang of Six (both of which included unnecessary cuts to vital programs). In fact, the Democrats’ plan has about six dollars in spending cuts for every dollar in new revenue (while Bowles-Simpson had a two to one ratio).

The Republicans, meanwhile, released a “deficit reduction” plan that, depending on the revenue baseline assumed by both Bowles-Simpson and the Gang of Six, would cut taxes to the tune of more than $800 billion over 10 years, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:

The new Republican plan provides for slightly more than $3 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years, relative to a current-policy baseline that assumes extension of all the 2001-2003 tax cuts. (See Table 1.) Of that amount, only about 1 percent of the deficit reduction ($40 billion) stems from revenue increases. And, compared to the “plausible baseline” that the Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission and the Senate’s Gang of Six used, which assumes expiration of the upper-income tax cuts, the latest Republican plan actually provides for tax cuts of more than $800 billion over ten years.

Overall, “the Republican plan would produce $1 trillion less deficit reduction than the Democratic offer, relative to any baseline.” The Republicans, in their zeal to indiscriminately reduce taxes regardless of the country’s ability to afford it, evidently believe that no deficit reduction plan is complete without blowing a new hole in the federal budget.

Health

The Health Care Portion Of The Deficit Commission: A ‘Grab Bag’ Of Proposals

Ezra Klein calls out the President’s Deficit Commission — which released its final report earlier this morning — for showing “cowardice” in its proposed recommendations for controlling health care spending — the single biggest driver of the deficit. “The plan’s health-care savings largely consist of hoping the cost controls (IPAB, the excise tax, and various demonstration projects) in the new health-care law work and expanding their power and reach,” Klein writes. “But the commission ‘does not take a position’ on the new law” or “put its weight” behind any single measure to reduce health care spending.

Indeed, the commission’s “grab bag” approach was likely intended to secure the 14 of the 18 votes, but also a reflection of the reality that real cost control would require a patchwork of solutions. No one policy will win bipartisan political support or serve as a silver bullet for slowing the growth of health care spending.

So is the grab-bag any good? The recommendations for expanding the successful payment reforms in the Affordable Care Act, strengthening the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) — which will advise Congress on how to control health care spending — establishing “a robust public option in the health care exchanges” and “moving toward some type of all-payer system” are probably worth pursuing. Fixing the sustainable-growth formula (the so-called Doc-Fix) is also a good idea.

The commission is also proposing reforming the Medicare cost-sharing rules, which it describes as a “hodge-podge of premiums, deductibles, and copay.” “Because cost-sharing for most medical services is low, the benefit structure encourages over-utilization of health care. In place of the current structure, the Commission recommends establishing a single combined annual deductible of $550 for Part A (hospital) and Part B (medical care), along with 20 percent uniform coinsurance on health spending above the deductible,” the report says. But “it will be difficult if not impossible to ask the majority of beneficiaries to pay more or make do with less.” Seniors are already spending some 16 percent of their income on uncovered services and as the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Drew Altman points out,”nearly half (47%) of all elderly and disabled people on Medicare have incomes below twice the federal poverty level…And two-thirds of the 8 million disabled people on Medicare who are under age 65 have incomes below twice the poverty rate.”

Then there is the commission’s approach to controlling long-term spending by capping total federal health care spending – including Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, FEHB, TRICARE, the exchange subsidies, and the cost of the tax exclusion for health care – at GDP+1 percent after 2020. If applied globally, leaves no room for the increase in the number of beneficiaries that is expected in future decades, which is projected to rise from 13 percent of the population today to 22 percent in 2050. The commission does note the target “should be measured on a per-beneficiary basis if it is applied only to certain federal health programs,” which is less onerous.

It also flirts with the idea of transitioning Medicare into a “premium support” program, but recognizes that the idea — which would transfer future beneficiaries out of Medicare and give them a voucher that is intended to not keep up with health care costs — “carries serious potential risks” and only recommends running a pilot program of the concept for federal retirees in FEHBP. The commission suggests that if health care costs are projected to increase faster than GDP plus 1 percent, Congress and the President should consider “moving to a premium support system for Medicare” (among other options).

Significantly, here, the committee’s decision to give Congress and the President a list of other options to consider if spending increases faster than the cap is perhaps the strongest demonstration of its ‘leave it to others’ approach and one for which the badge of “cowardice” may be well earned.

Health

A Comparison Of The Health Care Sections In All 3 Deficit Reduction Proposals

Earlier today, the Bipartisan Policy Center released a new set of recommendations to offer a “comprehensive plan to dramatically reduce America’s deficits and debt and strengthen our economy, enabling the nation to reclaim its future.” The report, titled, “Restoring America’s Future,” is now the third proposal that tries to balance the deficit by purportedly making the kind of difficult decisions that elected officials usually try to avoid. Earlier, the two chairmen of the President’s Fiscal Commission — former Sen. Alan Simpson and former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles — released their draft recommendations for how Congress can achieve “nearly $4 trillion in deficit reduction through 2020″ while reducing “the deficit to 2.2% of GDP by 2015” and Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) — a member of the committee — issued her own progressive alternative. White House Budget Director and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Alice Rivlin, who helped author the BPC proposal, is also a member of the President’s Fiscal Commission.

What follows is a partial comparison of the health care sections in the three available proposals: the Simpson/Bowles report, Rep. Jan Schakowsky’s (D-IL) progressive proposal, and the Bipartisan Policy Center’s latest report:

Simpson/Bowles Proposal Schakowsky’s Proposal Bipartisan Policy Center’s Proposal
Cost Sharing in Medicare Replace existing cost-sharing rules with universal deductible, single
coinsurance rate, and catastrophic cap for Medicare Part A and Part B.
Does not specify. Increase Medicare B premiums from 25 to 35 percent.
Building on ACA Expansion of successful payment reforms, stronger Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), tort reform, inserting a public option into the exchanges and all-payer rate setting. Robust public option tied to Medicare rates, reduce exclusivity period for biologics from 12 to 17 years, Medicare price negotiation for drugs, establish a Medicare-administered drug plan to compete with private plans. Tort reform to cap non-economic and punitive damages. Federal government will provide grants to states to test other models.
Doc Fix Replace cuts required by SGR through 2015 with modest reductions while directing CMS to establish a new payment system, beginning in 2015, to reduce costs and improve quality. Does not specify. The Task Force plan “accommodates a permanent fix” to the sustainable growth rate (SGR) mechanism, but does not provide additional details.
Tax Exclusion for ESI Capping the tax exclusion “for employer-provided health care at the amount of the actuarial value of FEHBP standard option. Does not specify. Cap the exclusion of employer-provided health benefits in 2018, and then phase it out by 2028.
Long Term Savings

Places a “global target” for total federal health expenditures after 2020 (Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, exchange subsidies, employer health exclusion),” keeping growth at GDP plus 1%. Does not specify. Beginning in 2018, would limit the rate of increase of federal spending per beneficiary to 1% above the growth rate. Medicare beneficiaries would be charged higher premiums if costs rose faster. Also in 2018, begin reduce the amount by which Medicaid is growing faster than the economy.

By far the biggest disappointment of the BPC proposal is this idea of transitioning Medicare into a “premium support” program. Not only does that undermine the entire concept of social insurance, but it also transfers the entire cost of coverage to the individual. That is, if your costs exceed GDP plus 1%, you are on the hook for paying for the remaining health care expenditures.

Compare that with the more tame Simpson/Bowles approach. First, Simpson/Bowles considers the growth of Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, exchange subsidies, and employer health exclusion in setting their target. BPC, only looks at Medicare. Simpson/Bowles triggers various policy options if costs increase faster than the GDP+1 target. Under the BPC proposal, the only option is higher premiums. The former requires the President to submit and Congress to consider reforms to lower spending like increasing premiums, overhauling the fee-for-service system, developing premium support for Medicare, adding a robust public option, and/or expanding IPAB.

The BPC’s Medicaid proposal is more interesting. The committee feels that states are gaming the shared financing arrangement between states and the federal government — by finding creative ways to increase their federal matching rate — and proposes an alternative that would allocate a complete component of the Medicaid program to each payer. Under the arrangement, the state, for instance, would fully finance and administer CHIP or long-term care, while the federal government would pay for all disabled beneficiaries in the program. This, BPC believes, would encourage both the state and the federal government to control spending in their respective section and thus lower spending. This idea has been around since the 1990s but it’s unclear that it would save money since each payer would still have to deal with rising costs in their particular section of the Medicaid program.

Update

Merrill Goozner catches an important oversight in my analysis and argues that the Simpson/Bowles proposal is worse:

The Bowles-Simpson plan would cap Medicare expenditures at GDP+1 percent after 2020, which leaves no room for the increase in the number of beneficiaries that is expected in future decades. The number of elderly will rise from 13 percent of the population today to 22 percent in 2050. Rivlin-Domenici, on the other hand, will increase spending PER BENEFICIARY by GDP+1, which is much less onerous. Still, as you point out, it is essentially privatization of Medicare, as will be explained tomorrow in my piece in The Fiscal Times. Nice chart otherwise, though.

Health

What The Chairmen Of The Debt Commission Want To Do With Health Care

Earlier today, the two chairmen of the President’s Fiscal Commission — former Sen. Alan Simpson and former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles — released their draft recommendations for how Congress can to achieve “nearly $4 trillion in deficit reduction through 2020″ while reducing “the deficit to 2.2% of GDP by 2015.”

On the health care side, the proposal strengthens some existing provisions in the Affordable Care Act, calling for the expansion of successful payment reforms and a far stronger Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), which will advise Congress on how to control health care spending. The proposal also embraces the oft-repeated GOP idea of tort reform and throws progressives a bone by recommending that a public option be inserted into the exchanges along with an all-payer rate setting system.

Beyond this, the chairmen call for a fix to the Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula that is responsible for the coming pay cuts to doctors participating in Medicare and reform in program’s cost-sharing rules. One health policy wonk I spoke to lavished particular praise on the idea of replacing “existing cost-sharing rules with universal deductibles,” describing the program’s current structure outdated and too complicated.

As TIME’s Kate Pickert points out, one of the most interesting and significant proposals is capping the tax exclusion “for employer-provided health care at the amount of the actuarial value of FEHBP standard option.” By contrast the health law establishes relatively high caps — $10,200 for individual coverage and $27,500 for family coverage — that don’t got into effect until January 1, 2018.

For longer-term savings, the chairmen recommend setting a “global target” for total federal health expenditures after 2020 (Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, exchange subsidies, employer health exclusion),” keeping growth at GDP plus 1%.

“What I see as a problem in a lot of this is that it seems to ignore the connection between Medicare and the rest of the health care system,” the Urban Institute’s John Holahan told me, noting that he had just given the report a cursory review. “If you really try to keep Medicare down that close to GDP you’re going to have to do things to provider payments that will make Medicare unattractive.” He argued that the proposal to cap the ESI tax exclusion “helps” but said, “with the increases we’ve seen in provider concentration, it is probably necessary to do something about payment rates as well.”

These proposals are not the final report of the commission. That will require the support of 14 of the 18 members, which many consider unlikely.

Update

Another health wonk e-mails in to me: “I find the idea that malpractice reform would be an offset for the doc fix repugnant. Sounds like the AMA did an excellent lobbying job on the commissioners to get such a two-fer (with relatively modest scoreable savings — their staff estimate is a little high versus CBO’s previous work on this).

And the other offsets are basically deeper reimbursement cuts on top of the ACA — which is hard to imagine happening when the GOP just ran against the cuts in the ACA, but maybe in a deficit-reduction proposal that would fly after all.”


Update

,To clarify, the chairmen propose paying for the doc fix by “asking doctors and other health providers, lawyers, and individuals to take responsibility for slowing health care cost growth” and paying providers less while improving efficiency, and rewarding quality. They’re also using savings from tort reform.

Economy

Republican Budget Commission Chairman Dismisses Claim That Spending Cuts Alone Will Rein In Deficits

AP070504054035Tomorrow, President Obama is expected to formally announce the creation of a commission charged with formulating a plan to address the country’s long-term budget deficits. Obama will reportedly name former Republican senator Alan Simpson and former Clinton White House official Erskine Bowles as the commission’s chairmen.

When Obama first made his intention to create a deficit commission known and said that he was “agnostic” regarding the proposals that it would consider, many Republicans went on the offensive, claiming that the commission was simply a way to push through tax increases. Instead, the GOP has been advocating for a commission that is explicitly barred from considering taxes and can only focus on cutting spending.

Fortunately, Simpson isn’t buying that argument, and in an interview with the New York Times he “dismissed claims from Republicans that reining in deficits would be easy or accomplished with spending cuts alone”:

“But they don’t cut spending,” he said, citing the administration of President George W. Bush when Republicans also controlled Congress. “Don’t forget the Republicans never vetoed a single bill in six and a half years. How is that for cutting spending?” “To say that all we have to do is take care of waste, fraud and abuse, and foreign aid is a like a sparrow’s belch in the midst of typhoon,” he said. “That is nothing, less than 1 percent of the budget.”

“There isn’t a single sitting member of Congress — not one — that doesn’t know exactly where we’re headed,” Simpson added. “And to use the politics of fear and division and hate on each other — we are at a point right now where it doesn’t make a damn whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican if you’ve forgotten you’re an American.”

Simpson is exactly right. Not only are our current deficits overwhelmingly the result of Bush administration policies and the economic downturn (which has seriously depressed tax revenue), but trying to address long-term deficits on the spending side alone can’t be done. Those who blame the deficit on earmarks (which make up less than one percent of the budget) or think that the budget can be balanced by simply freezing spending are, as CAP’s Michael Linden has put it, “peddling fiscal snake oil.”

As former Reagan economic official Bruce Bartlett wrote, “every serious budget analyst — I mean every — knows that revenues must be part of the solution to our deficit problem…[T]he idea that we can or even should embark on serious deficit reduction with no tax increase whatsoever is grossly immature and unworthy of consideration.” But the Republican leadership is still waffling about whether or not it will even agree to name members to the commission, crystallizing its insistence on staying on budget fantasy-land. It’s good to see that, at least, the Republican chairman of the commission is refusing to play the same game.

Economy

Gregg: My Deficit Commission Would ‘Lead To Action,’ But Obama’s Commission Is ‘A Fraud’

AP091223014043This week, the Senate is expected to defeat a proposal by Sens. Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) to form a commission charged with crafting ways to reduce the country’s long-term deficits. But the commission idea is not dead!

Instead, it looks like the Obama administration will create a commission by executive order, which will be “granted broad authority” to come up with a series of deficit reducing “changes” to the tax code and spending programs that Congress would then consider. But if you thought Gregg would be pleased with this development, you’d be wrong:

It’s a fraud among anyone interested in fiscal responsibility to claim an executive order could structure something that would actually lead to action.

This is pretty amusing coming from Gregg, whose “precedent for success” in this matter is the 1983 Greenspan Commission. According to Gregg, the Greenspan Commission was “the catalyst that drove the process” behind that year’s fix for Social Security. But the Greenspan Commission was created by executive order.

Gregg is a good example of what CAP’s Michael Linden is calling “deficit peacocks”: lawmakers who “like to preen and call attention to themselves, but are not sincerely interested in taking the difficult but necessary steps toward a balanced budget.” For instance, while Gregg is criticizing those he deems not sufficiently “interested in fiscal responsibility,” he’s voting to cut taxes for the heirs of multi-millionaires. As the Atlantic’s Derek Thompson put it, “if you want to hear politicians croon utter nonsense about the debt with their fingers crossed behind their backs, please listen to Sen. Judd Gregg.”

At the same time, the administration’s design for a commission is about the same as Conrad and Gregg’s. It would involve 18 commissioners — six appointed by Congressional Democrats, six by Republicans, and six by the administration, with the understanding that the administration would name at least two Republicans — and 14 of the 18 would need to agree before their proposal made it to the floors of Congress. So the odds of anything productive coming out of this process are exceedingly small (which means that, as Matt Yglesias pointed out, there’s little point in wasting a lot of energy opposing the commission’s creation).

The only way a commission like this can possibly work is if it’s given a concrete goal and told to find ways to achieve said goal. As Stan Collender pointed out, that’s why base closing commissions work: everyone agrees that bases need to be closed, but they don’t want to decide which ones. But even with an explicit budget goal, I don’t see Republicans on the commission agreeing to anything that even remotely resembles a tax increase, without which budget balance is impossible. It’s far more likely that the commission bogs down into gridlock, and if a solution does come around, it will be because of some agreements that are crafted outside of the commission structure — just like with the Greenspan Commission.

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