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Climate Progress

Obama To Nation: ‘Climate Change Is Not A Hoax. More Droughts And Floods And Wildfires Are Not A Joke.’

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/13/barack_obama_thumb.jpgIt looks like Romney’s mockery of Obama’s 2008 pledge of climate action had one positive impact.

At the 2012 Democratic National Convention, President Obama said tonight to a large national TV audience:

And yes, my plan will continue to reduce the carbon pollution that is heating our planet – because climate change is not a hoax.  More droughts and floods and wildfires are not a joke.  They’re a threat to our children’s future.  And in this election, you can do something about it.

Worth filling up a couple of shot glasses, I’d say — though repeating the denier “hoax” frame is not the way to debunk it.

Here’s what leads up to it:

You can choose the path where we control more of our own energy.  After thirty years of inaction, we raised fuel standards so that by the middle of the next decade, cars and trucks will go twice as far on a gallon of gas.   We’ve doubled our use of renewable energy, and thousands of Americans have jobs today building wind turbines and long-lasting batteries.  In the last year alone, we cut oil imports by one million barrels a day – more than any administration in recent history.  And today, the United States of America is less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in nearly two decades.

Now you have a choice – between a strategy that reverses this progress, or one that builds on it. We’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration in the last three years, and we’ll open more. But unlike my opponent, I will not let oil companies write this country’s energy plan, or endanger our coastlines, or collect another $4 billion in corporate welfare from our taxpayers.

We’re offering a better path – a future where we keep investing in wind and solar and clean coal; where farmers and scientists harness new biofuels to power our cars and trucks; where construction workers build homes and factories that waste less energy; where we develop a hundred year supply of natural gas that’s right beneath our feet.  If you choose this path, we can cut our oil imports in half by 2020 and support more than 600,000 new jobs in natural gas alone.

Yes, that’s an “all of the above” energy policy. So down one drink and put the other down the drain.

Beats mockery, though. Comments?

UPDATE: Good speech with a great finish. I’d still give Bill Clinton props for the best speech of both conventions. Gov. Jennifer Granholm had the best line of the night:

In Romney’s world, the cars get the elevator; the workers get the shaft.

Climate Progress

Will The Epic Drought ‘Darken Obama Reelection Prospects’?

I’m bringing back the question of the week. This one is inspired by a Christian Science Monitor story, and this  stunning map  of US drought conditions:

The story, “Drought threatens to darken Obama reelection prospects,” opines in its sub-hed:

With nearly two-thirds of the US enduring drought conditions, food prices are expected to jump ahead of the November election. That could add to voter anxieties about the economy.

Certainly one of the biggest impacts of warming-driven drought and extreme weather is food insecurity (see “Climate Story of the Year: Warming-Driven Drought and Extreme Weather Emerge as Key Threat to Global Food Security” and links below).

And this drought is (almost) as brutal as it gets:

The PDSI [Palmer Drought Severity Index] in the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl apparently spiked very briefly to -6, but otherwise rarely exceeded -3 for the decade (see here). Nearly half the country is now -3 or worse.

If you want to see how these drought indices stack up against the historical record since 1895, click here. For the nation as a whole, the PDSI is in the lowest 1%. Over much of the Midwest is just about the worst drought ever.

The Monitor story explains the impact of the current drought on crops:

Read more

Economy

NOTE TO ROMNEY: The Federal Government Does Fund Teachers, Firefighters, And Police

Mitt Romney dismissed criticisms that he does not want to hire more teachers, firefighters, and police officers as “absurd” on Tuesday morning, telling Fox News Channel that if elected president, he would not have the ability to control the hiring decisions of local governments:

ROMNEY: Of course, teachers and firemen and policemen are hired at the local level and also by states. The federal government doesn’t pay for teachers, firefighters or policemen. So obviously that’s completely absurd.

But Romney’s comment demonstrates a disturbing lack of understanding of both federal funding and his own published plans. While it is true that teachers, firefighters, and police are hired at the local level, a significant portion of their funding, recruiting, and training comes from the federal government.

Here are just some of the ways the federal government funds:

Teachers

Firefighters

Police

NEWS FLASH

Super PACs Spending Big On States Too | In addition to the more than $95 million Super PACs have already spent on independent expenditures aimed at tilting the 2012 presidential election, a new Center for Responsive Politics analysis reveals they are spending big in the states. Super PACs have already spent over $12 million on Congressional races, even though the November elections are six months away. In 24 different races, Super PAC have already spent $100,000 or more. While the well-funded presidential campaigns will likely be able at least be competitive with outside groups, the anything-goes post-Citzens United and SpeechNow.org campaign finance landscape leaves congressional and local races particularly vulnerable to well-funded outside groups sweeping in with a multi-million dollar barrage of attack ads against overwhelmingly less-well funded campaigns.

NEWS FLASH

Rick Perry Anti-Gay Ad Features Music Inspired By Liberal Gay Composer Aaron Copland | Last week, Rick Perry released a much-criticized advertisement entitled “Strong” which features the Republican presidential candidate declaring that “there’s something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military”. In an ironic twist, the ad, which has earned over 600,000 “dislikes” on Youtube, features music that was inspired by Aaron Copland, a liberal gay composer from the mid-20th century. The New Yorker’s music critic, Alex Ross, notes that “Perry’s ad is hardly the first to appropriate Copland’s style in questionable fashion,” but it may the first to feature a Copland-esque score “in an anti-gay context.”

NEWS FLASH

Report: 120,000 Active Duty Soldiers Never Received The Absentee Ballots They Requested For The 2010 Election | A Federal Voting Assistance report reveals that “an astonishing 120,000 active duty military personnel never received their requested absentee ballots in the 2010 election.” This failure left 29 percent of active duty military voters without a vote, up from 16 percent in 2008. Soldiers that year were more likely to vote, as the percentage of those voting increased from 24 percent in 2006 to 29 percent in 2010. With the passage of the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act two years ago, ballots are supposed to be available 45 days prior to election day. The Federal Voting Assistance Program is aimed to help service members and their families as well as citizens living outside the U.S to vote.

Climate Progress

Bombshell: Democrats Taking “Green” Positions on Climate Change “Won Much More Often” Than Those Remaining Silent

Talking 'Green' Can Help Candidates Win Votes, Study Finds

Stanford public opinion expert Jon Krosnick and his colleagues analyzed the 2008 presidential election and the 2010 congressional election.  They found:

“Democrats who took ‘green’ positions on climate change won much more often than did Democrats who remained silent,” Krosnick said. “Republicans who took ‘not-green’ positions won less often than Republicans who remained silent.”

I asked Krosnick by email about the implications of his research for the President who has all but dropped “climate change” from his vocabulary.  Krosnick answered:

Our research suggests that it would be wise for the President and for all other elected officials who believe that climate change is a problem and merits government attention to say this publicly and vigorously, because most Americans share these views.  Expressing and pursuing green goals on climate change will gain votes on election day and seem likely to increase the President’s and the Congress’s approval ratings.

I’ve talked to senior officials from the Administration as well as journalists who cover them — and both groups report that team Obama has bought into the nonsensical and ultimately self-destructive view that climate change is not a winning issue politically (see “Can you solve global warming without talking about global warming?).

And it is nonsense.  Prof. Edward Maibach, Director of George Mason University’s Center for Climate Change Communication, made the exact same point in a Climate Progress guest post last month: “Polling Expert: Is Obama’s Reluctance to Mention Climate Change Motivated by a False Assumption About Public Opinion?

At the end, I repost yet again the umpteen polls that support this painfully obvious conclusion.  This new election analysis supports earlier polling analysis by Krosnick, which found:

“Political candidates get more votes by taking a “green” position on climate change – acknowledging that global warming is occurring, recognizing that human activities are at least partially to blame and advocating the need for action – according to a June 2011 study by researchers at Stanford University.”

Krosnick’s new study, “The Impact of Candidates’ Statements about Climate Change on Electoral Success in 2008 and 2010: Evidence Using Three Methodologies” here.  Let’s look at some more of its findings,  particularly at the presidential level:

Read more

Yglesias

Union Member Voting Behavior

I thought I’d look up how union members voted in the 2010 Wisconsin midterms. The exit polls didn’t actually provided the data, but they did ask about whether you live in a union household. Not surprisingly, union households like Democrats:

That’s a strong showing for Barrett but not nearly as strong as, say, his pull of 87 percent of the African-American vote. Had unions delivered 70 percent of the union household vote to Barrett, he would have won. Russ Feingold pulled 59 percent of the union household vote in his failed re-election bid. Nationally, 61 percent of union household voters pulled the lever for a House Democrat in 2010.

Yglesias

Adventures in Polling Analysis

Anne Kim and Stefan Hankin report the “key findings” of Third Way’s latest poll:

In a new post-election survey, Third Way and Lincoln Park Strategies polled 1,000 Obama voters who abandoned Democrats in 2010, either by staying home (the “droppers”) or by voting Republican (the “switchers”). This report paints a portrait of these droppers and switchers—the voters that Democrats will need to win again in 2012. Our key findings:

Droppers are more than the base. One in 3 droppers is conservative, 40% are Independents, and they are split about whether Obama should have done more or did too much.

For switchers, it’s not just the economy. The economy matters but switchers also overwhelmingly think Democrats are more liberal that they are. Two in three say “too much government spending” was a major reason for their vote.

Republicans won a chance, not a mandate. Only 20% of switchers say that a major reason for their vote was that “Republicans had better ideas,” and nearly half say Republicans are more conservative than they are.

Two points here. One, I don’t think it’s very enlightening to rely on survey data to get people to explain their own voting behavior. Systematic surveys make it very clear that voters, in the aggregate, swing against presidents who preside over poor economic performance (as well as those who preside over elevated incidence of shark attacks) but presumably few swing voters subjectively perceive themselves to be fickely remaking their ideology according to macroeconomic fluctuations.

Second, the treatment of the “independent” vote in this bullet point is naive in the extreme. The result that most self-described independents are in fact consistent partisan voters is well-establishment. If 40 percent of droppers are self-identified independents that mostly goes to show that some non-trivial faction of the Democratic Party’s base vote self-identifies as independent.

Health

Former Obama Health Policy Advisor: Republicans Will Shut Down The Government Over Health Reform

A former senior health care advisor to President Barack Obama and a prominent advocate of the Affordable Care Act predicted that Republicans will shut down the federal government in their efforts to de-fund the health care law. Speaking at a Harvard School of Public Health forum, David Cutler — a Professor of Applied Economics at that university — predicted a stalmate with little chance of resolution, given the new Republican majority in the House:

CUTLER: We are likely to have an immense stalemate and I would not be surprised if we shut down the federal government over funding of discretionary health care early next year, the debt ceiling limit, the physicians’ payments. There will be about 10 opportunities to shut down the government. If we’re not going to shut them down, each time we’ll have to compromise and that strikes me as somewhat unlikely. [...]

We will go through a burning bridge, I’m not quite sure of the right analogy, in the next few months. We will either have have or come increasingly close to having a government shut down and we will probably not have any agreement on how to move forward on health care, except with the idea that maybe the 2012 elections will settle a little bit more and that’s in part because there are no wise men, I think on the Republican side who are willing to meet anyone half way.

Watch it:

The forum focused on the Impact of the “2010 Elections on U.S. Healthcare Reform,” but also delved deeply into policy specifics about cost control mechanisms and the policy specifics in the Affordable Care Act. Another panelist, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former McCain campaign advisor and CBO director, predicted that Republicans will “unwind” the bill through the discretionary spending process. “It will slow down the implementation and in that way put it on a timetable to coincide with the 2012 election… that’s when this whole point will be resolved,” he said.

Yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) suggested that Republicans would not shut down the government over the issue, telling CNN’s John King, “we’re not talking about shutting down the government. What we’re doing here is talking about responding to the American people’s desire that this bill not become law.”

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