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Stories tagged with “Election 2010

Health

Health Care Industry Will Lobby GOP To Strip Payment Board, Industry Taxes From Health Law

Wall Street Journal’s Janet Adamy and Jonathan Weisman offer some specific insights into why health insurers have been so heavily funding Republicans this election cycle and what they’re hoping to buy with the increased contributions:

Insurers want to reverse tax increases and loosen restrictions on insurance premiums, and several groups hope to tack on medical malpractice protections. [...]

The insurance industry is working to persuade the next Congress to roll back a roughly $70 billion tax on insurance companies that takes effect in 2014, saying it will disproportionately hit small businesses that insure their workers. It also wants lawmakers to allow insurers to widen the rating bands that dictate how much more insurers can charge older customers.

Insurers also want to tackle the growth of health costs by enacting a new measure to give robust protections against medical malpractice lawsuits to doctors who follow certain “best practice” guidelines, said Karen Ignagni, the insurance industry’s top lobbyist.

“We always reach out to both sides of the political aisle and we’ll continue doing that because we have had concerns,” said Ms. Ignagni, president of America’s Health Insurance Plans. She said her group would be most focused on parts of the bill that it believes fail to lower the growth of health costs.

Recently, Ignagni also hinted that she would like to see Congress soften the employer responsibility provisions in the law, since the penalties could some employers to drop their existing employer-based coverage and send their workers into better regulated plans within the exchanges.

Of course, other sectors of the health industry — many of which cooperated with Democrats to pass reform — are also trying to weaken the law’s most important cost containment mechanism: The Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB). The American Hospital Association (AHA) and drug makers have their sights set on the board, which will begin recommending cuts to reduce the per-capita rate of growth in Medicare spending.

But some of the groups that cooperated with Democrats may have trouble influencing the expected Republican majority, the Washington Post reports. “Some businesses joined in on the hang-me-last strategy,” said Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill). “I think upon reflection, in moments of candor, they may say they were foolish to do that.” House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), for instance, blasted PhRMA for cooperating with Democrats on reform and the group has been trying to patch up relations ever since.

Media

The Geography of Overexposure

The most-covered candidate of 2010 turns out to have been Christine O’Donnell, who definitely won’t be taking office as a United States Senator. By contrast, we’ve heard very little about the guy who’ll probably beat Russ Feingold or the dude who has at least an outside chance of winning of Washington.

Ezra Klein’s theory is that O’Donnell “just made for good copy.”

That’s true, but I think there’s more in play, namely logistics. The Alaska Senate race should be excellent copy. Joe Miller is nuts, Scott McAdams is fascinatingly amateurish, the Palin-Murkowski feud is interesting, everyone likes to talk about Sarah Palin, etc. But Alaska is also cold and remote. Sending a reporter there would be expensive and annoying. The time zones are inconvenient. By contrast, Wilmington is a 2 hour drive or 90 minute train ride from both Washington, DC and New York City. So if you want to get some “real reporting” done it’s convenient. And logistics count in life.

Yglesias

Liberal Overreach at the Margin

It’s inevitable that “liberal overreach” will be blamed for Democratic losses if they’re large tonight and also blamed if they’re small. But what I think overreach analysis always requires is more of a marginal approach.

For example, granting ad arguendum that the 111th Congress engaged in liberal overreach, which Senators who win today would have lost had the Affordable Care Act included a public option linked to Medicare? The answer seems to me to be nobody. Which Senators who win today would have lost had the 111th Congress passed a cap-and-trade plan through reconciliation? Here, it looks like Patty Murray. Would a “scaled back” health care plan have saved Blance Lincoln? Clearly not.

Yglesias

There’s No Such Thing as a Realignment

The worst thing that happens after most US elections is that people begin to debate whether or not the election in question is/was a “realignment” election.

So when I saw that Stan Collender had a post titled Beware of Those Who Call This Election a Realigment” I was excited. But instead of his argument being the correct one that this is a bogus concept, he’s saying “It may well be a realignment, but anyone who uses that word tonight, tomorrow, or in the next few months to characterize the 2010 election will either be guessing or spinning.”

What you really need to do with realignment-mongering pundits is suggest they read David Mayhew’s Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre in which he persuasively argues that there’s no meaningful “realignment” phenomenon. There’s a good short summary here if you’re interested. To give my own summary, Mayhew’s point is that there’s no dichotomy between two “kinds” of elections. There’s just a lot of elections. Some are more important than others, especially in retrospect. Sometimes a party wins a bunch of elections in a row. Sometimes a voting bloc switches partisan loyalties on an enduring basis. But there’s no “pattern” in which these things all go together. Stuff just happens. Partisan majorities are usually fleeting.

People gaze at the stars and see constellations, but that just goes to show that human intelligence plus random occurrences equals pattern-detection not that there’s some deep underlying structure to the heavens that’s painting pretty pictures for us.

Yglesias

Official Election Predictions Post

When all the votes are counted, I think there’ll be 232 House Republicans. They’ll be joined by 49 Senate Republicans, which is going to set off an interesting frenzy of efforts to entice Senators Nelson, Lieberman, Landrieu, and Pryor to switch parties but I forecast that coordination problems—only works if two jump—will frustrate Republicans. Meanwhile, egomaniacal senate moderates will be frustrated to discover that the legislative process now consists primarily of negotiations between Barack Obama and the House GOP.

This reversion to a balance of political power that leaves Democrats in a stronger position than they were as recently as the 2005-2008 period will be treated by the press as a world-historical shift in favor of the right. Most press figures will probably explicitly note that election results are invariably over-interpreted and then proceed to over-interpret again, arguing that this time it’s different.

Interestingly, changes in state legislature turn out to be highly correlated with House outcomes so the GOP will get a big upper hand in the redistricting process.

Health

Health Reform And The Midterm Elections — A Historical Perspective

NBC’s presidential historian Michael Beschloss added one more important point of historical context to the ongoing question of how much the actual policies in the Affordable Care Act have contributed to the Democrats’ poor showing in the polls and tomorrow’s expected Republican electoral wave. Beschloss recalled that despite a two-thirds majority in the House and the Senate, President Lyndon B. Johnson recognized that he had a narrow window of opportunity to pass Medicare and other “Great Society” programs before the public turned against him.

He did and they did:

BESCHLOSS: Look at 1965. Lyndon Johnson came in, if you can believe it Rachel, two-thirds of the senate was Democrats, two-thirds of the House was Democrats. But even despite that, LBJ said, this doesn’t happen very often, I’ve got six months. He used those six months to get through the Great Society, Medicare, voting rights, very basic programs. He said after that they’re going to start voting against me and there will be a backlash. He was absolutely right. The Democrats had huge setbacks in Congress in 1966, but LBJ and the Great Society had probably more of an influence on Americans in terms of saying where the Democratic party is, for well or ilk, than probably any other president of the period.

Watch it:

If anything underscores the point that these kinds of social reforms are investments that could yield long-term dividends for the country it’s that today most Republicans are pledging to protect Medicare from the cuts in the health law and are campaigning against reform’s cuts to the program.

Of course, what’s unique about the health reform debate is that Republicans are still opposing the legitimacy of the law. As James Morone — a professor of political science at Brown University — has pointed out, “Normally in our political system, when we have enormous battles over legislation, most political actors consider the politics done when the legislative battle is over. What’s new here is the idea that the battle goes on into the implementation phase. This wasn’t true for Social Security, it wasn’t true for Medicare, it wasn’t true for civil rights.” “I’m not sure the Democrats have been quite this insistent after losing legislation. To have the Republican Party be this forceful about a position after the normal political process has run its course is pretty extraordinary,” he added.

Yglesias

Doing My Part to Boost Voter Apathy

Will Wilkinson says these midterms don’t matter very much, via a broader argument which says that elections in general don’t matter as much as people say. Ross Douthat says he doesn’t agree with all of it but that “it’s still a useful corrective to the vast effort currently underway to persuade you that this election (like the election before it, and the election before that) is a world-historical hinge moment, and that nothing in American life matters more than how many seats the Republicans gain or don’t gain next Tuesday.”

I agree with both of them, but that still leaves open the question of how important is the election compared to other elections. The 2008 elections led, after all, to a very important piece of health care legislation that’s not going to be repealed during the 112th congress. In other words, even after the soon-to-come revival of conservative political fortunes the health policy status quo is going to settle well to the left of where it was before the election. And it seems overwhelmingly likely to me that had Kay Hagan and Al Franken not won their close elections in North Carolina and Minnesota that the Affordable Care Act never would have passed. So as far as elections go, that’s a pretty big deal.

By contrast, looking ahead even if the Democrats defy expectations and eke out a narrow House majority they’re not going to turn around and pass a cap-and-trade bill. And if Republicans defy expectations and pick up 65 House seats instead of 55 House seats, that’s not going to conjure up the votes to scrap the minimum wage. In any remotely plausible range of outcomes, we’ll be looking at an era where either nothing happens or else compromises are reached between the party leaders. The precise numbers matter of course, but they don’t matter nearly as much as they did in the current congress where a couple Democratic “reach” wins in Senate elections transformed the situation.

Health

Was Obama’s Handling Of Health Reform a Mistake? Yet Another Analysis From A Parallel Universe

I’m enjoying Jonathan Cohn’s, Greg Sargent’s, and Ezra Klein’s counterfactuals about Democrats’ mid-term election prospects had they they never taken up health care reform. All agree that Democrats would find themselves in the same spot, or be even worse off than they are today:

- COHN: A Newsweek economics columnist called Obama’s failure to address health care costs, at a time when the political forces for action were finally aligned, an unforgivable act of political cowardice. It’s hard to know whether voters share that assessment, but the perception that Obama whiffed at tackling the nation’s major issues certainly isn’t helping his approval ratings. The phrase “Carterbama” comes up a lot in conversation.

- SARGENT: There are a host of reasons to believe Dems might have been in a pretty bad position even if they hadn’t attempted reform at all. And if that had happened, and Dems had sustained big losses all the same, it could have postponed action on reform for a decade or more. Those who think Dems shouldn’t have tried reform this time around need to be asked when Dems would have gotten their next bite at the health care apple — particularly with such big majorities.

- KLEIN: In conversations over the past few weeks, some of the party’s leading strategists told me that it all comes down to accomplishments, or — here’s that ubiquitous word again — “deliverables.” The president, who ran such a brilliant campaign, they argue, has utterly failed to live up to the promise of his election. They cited perceived missed opportunities like the president’s decision to expand S-CHIP rather than pursuing health-care reform and suggested that he hadn’t done enough to re-regulate the financial sector in the aftermath of one of the worst financial crises in the nation’s history.

I agree with the above, but also wonder where Democrats would be today (regardless of the economy) if the President had approached reform in a more hands-on manner, publicly advocated for progressive priorities like the public option and drug reimportation, and crafted a more coherent and specific vision of what he wanted the final reform bill to look like. On one hand, it’s certainly possible that this more confrontational style would have put off the self-important lawmakers who took pride in personally crafting the law and pushed away the special interests whose acquiescence the administration bought with special agreements and tradeoffs. Reform might have died a slow death and Obama would likely be no better off than he is today — again, maybe even worse.

But had these Clintonian tactics led to a different result — if reform passed, it would have either included the kind of progressive ideas that Democrats could rally around or it would have mirrored something similar or even more conservative than the Affordable Care Act. In either outcome, if Obama steered the ship, the actual reform process could have been cut in half and even in the latter instance, Obama could have been seen as someone who stood and fought for what he campaigned for. And, it’s possible that his progressive base would have been more likely to stand with him than many are today. Conservatives, moreover, would have had less time to smear the law and concoct lies; without those falsehoods, and with a shorter legislative process, the American public would have been more receptive to the policy.”

Of course, all of this is mere speculation, but one can’t help but question if Democrats would see more public support for the law and their party today had the President publicly acted like it really mattered to him 16 months ago.

Health

Is Health Reform To Blame For Democrats’ Poor Election Predicament?

National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar makes the case that “health care is fueling the Democrats’ dismal situation” going into the midterm elections by pointing out that “Democrats who opposed the bill are in surprisingly decent shape,” while those who went along with the White House are in very tight re-election races. When voters in competitive races “were asked an open-ended question about what gives them the biggest pause about voting for their sitting member of Congress, a solid plurality said it was health care – ahead of the economy and jobs,” Krausharr adds.

But if the unpopular legislation contributes to the predicted Democratic loses in the House — a point that is under some contention — it won’t be because the legislation itself is so rotten. Much of the blame should also fall on the Democrats’ failed effort to sell the law and the GOP’s success in tarnishing it.

Yesterday, Greg Sargent pointed out that “opponents of the legislation, including independent groups, have spent $108 million since March to advertise against it” — “six times more than supporters have spent, including $5.1 million by the Department of Health and Human Services to promote the new law.” That $108 million went to finance the false claims that individuals who don’t purchase coverage will go to jail, or sex offenders will have access to government subsidized Viagara and seniors will lose all their Medicare benefits.

As Sargent notes, after the elections, some Democrats will surely argue that the administration overreached in its health care policy, a contention that’s undermined by these ad campaigns and polls which still show that the individual components of the bill are very popular. For instance, last night’s New York Times poll found that 41% of Americans thought Republicans should repeal the law, but that number dropped to 25% when the respondent was told that “repealing the law meant that insurance companies were no longer required to cover people with existing medical conditions.” Forty-six percent of respondents also said that “the Democratic party is more likely to improve the health care system,” while just 28 percent thought Republicans were.

Yglesias

The Banality of Tea

I did a radio interview earlier today about the midterms and something that struck me repeatedly was the totally unwarranted sense many seem to have that a GOP pickup of 55-60 House seats would represent some kind of bold new era of conservatism and/or descent into manic fascism. I’m not very old, and I remember perfectly well life under a House GOP majority in the 1995-2006. They did some good things, they did some bad things, they did some stupid things, and then they lost power. Ta-da. Life goes on.

More generally, over the past 20 years we’ve had unified Democratic control for four years (1993-94 and 2009-10) and unified GOP control for four years (2003-2006) and divided government for the other twelve. In the twenty years before that divided government was even more common. So a big Republican win will take us from an abnormally strong political position for Democrats back to version of the situation that typically prevails in modern America—one that will probably leave them with less influence over policy than they had in 2007-2008.

I don’t want to deny that the change is a big deal. The shift out of the normal situation and into the abnormal one that occurred in November 2008 was a significant event. And it led to, among other things, a sweeping overhaul of the health care sector. So switching back into normal position is also a big deal. But it’s a big deal in the sense that things are going back to normal, not in the sense that we’re entering a new wild era in which Americans will finally repudiate the welfare state.

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