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Economy

As Europeans Push To Ease Austerity Amid Record Unemployment, The U.S. Digs In

Eurozone-area unemployment, still plagued by a continent-wide push for austerity, rose to yet another record high in March, and 12.1 percent of Europeans are now unemployed. Spain’s economy contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter in the first three months of 2013, and across the continent, growth is stagnant. Even Germany, home to Europe’s strongest economy and its biggest deficit hawk in Chancellor Angela Merkel, is seeing higher unemployment.

That has led European leaders to rethink their focus on austerity, largely at the urging of American officials. European officials pledged to rein in austerity efforts earlier this month, and European Union president Jose Manuel Barroso said last week that the EU was considering easing its austerity policies and deficit reduction targets to help boost growth. Others have gone farther, with officials in France and Italy calling for total abandonment of austerity, the Washington Post reports:

In France, the doubts have spread to President Francois Hollande’s Socialist Party and government, with officials suggesting that the debt-ridden continent needs to stimulate growth at all costs — even including more debt — if it is to climb out of the economic and financial crisis that began unfurling in 2008. [...]

Italy is dying because of austerity alone,” that country’s new prime minister, Enrico Letta, complained in his first address to Parliament on Monday. “Stimulus policies can no longer wait.

European leaders haven’t yet abandoned austerity to focus on growth that would help countries like Spain and Greece — where unemployment rates top 25 percent — but they are at least considering it. But even as the U.S. pushes those reconsiderations, lawmakers here remain focused not on growth that would help reduce America’s own persistently high unemployment rate but on reducing deficits and debt. Sequestration, the automatic budget cuts that went into effect on March 1, is America’s most irresponsible form of deficit reduction yet, and despite its gutting of vital programs and its harmful effects on economic growth, Republicans in Congress have shown no willingness to abandon it in favor of policies that would actually help the economy.

The U.S. bucked the European trend toward austerity in 2009, when President Obama signed a large stimulus bill into law that halted the recession and turned the economy around. The stimulus put the U.S. on a faster pace of growth than Europe experienced, but the focus on deficit reduction since then has only prevented the recovery from taking full effect. Though government spending has typically driven economic recoveries in the United States, it has plateaued amid deficit reduction efforts and perpetual manufactured crises (like the 2011 debt ceiling debacle) since 2010. Instead of helping the recovery, those efforts have only hurt it. But even as some European leaders rethink austerity, and even with evidence that stimulative policies sparked a better recovery than Europe’s, American lawmakers remain committed to spending cuts that will only hinder efforts to grow the economy and reduce unemployment.

Security

The European Left’s Youth Problem

Here in the United States, we are used to thinking of the Millennial generation as progressive in a fairly straightforward and uncomplicated way. Members of this generation lean left on both social and economic issues and cast their vote accordingly for Democratic candidates.

In Europe, things are more complicated. It is true that Millennials in Europe are notably cosmopolitan, tolerant, and open-minded compared to the outlook of previous generations. But it is also true that they are a generation whose access to economic mobility bears a vexed relationship to the welfare state and to older voters, who are its chief beneficiaries.

Despite these complications, the good news for European progressives is that this generation appears to lean left in most countries. The bad news is that progressive Millennial voters in most countries tend to fragment their vote among a multiplicity of parties. Many of them look beyond the main left or social democratic parties and cast their vote for greens or social liberals or even new anti-establishment parties. This appears to be a universal problem for the main left parties, which weakens their ability to compete with the right. The relative unattractiveness of social democrats to younger voters in their countries is resulting in the rapid aging of the support base for these parties. Betting on older voters to keep social democrats politically viable is a risky strategy, but it is, in effect, where many social democratic parties are currently placing their bets.

Out of economic and political necessity, social democrats and labor parties will have to change course and devote far more attention to younger voters. Mass unemployment in southern Europe, declining youth-employment opportunity across the continent, and burgeoning retirement and health care costs from the baby boomers all imply that the social democrats’ key historical achievement — the welfare state — will need radical reform if it is to gain support from this new generation. Moreover, as the younger generation is less deferential and more cosmopolitan in outlook, social democrats will also need to pay far greater attention to both broader policy issues like as the environment and civil liberties and the organizing structure of their political movements. Both will require social democrats to rethink their core political commitments.

Can they do it? Recent events do not inspire confidence, at least in the short run. Nowhere is this clearer than in Italy.  Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment party, the Five Star Movement, came out of nowhere in the recent election to become Italy’s largest party, powered by the youth vote. Despite the Five Star Movement’s generally progressive program (anti-austerity, anti-corruption laws, political system reform, protecting the environment, universal unemployment benefit, local referendums on large public works), the Democratic party, the second-largest party and Italy’s main left party, has made little effort to reach out to Grillo and his movement.

This came to a head with the refusal of the Democratic Party’s leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, to back a candidate for President, leftist lawyer and politician Stefano Rodata, who had the support of the Five Star Movement, of the youth-oriented Left Ecology Freedom party (with which the Democratic Party had formed an electoral alliance) and of a large chunk of his own party, including the dynamic 38 year old mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi. Instead, Bersani backed an 80 year old right wing candidate, Franco Marini, simply because he was acceptable to Silvio Berlusconi, the billionaire media magnate and maximum leader of the Italian right.

Marini went down to ignominious defeat, with many Democratic Party legislators voting against him, as did another candidate backed by Bersani.  In the end, 87 year old Giorgio Napolitano, the incumbent President, agreed to serve another term and was duly re-elected, though over the vociferous objections of the Five Star Movement.  The whole episode fatally undermined Bersani’s hold on his party and he has resigned.

On the positive side, Bersani’s resignation cleared a path for new blood in the Democratic party in the form of 46 year old Democratic Party politician Enrico Letta, now prime minister of a new coalition government.  On the negative side, the new coalition government basically consists of the two big traditional parties, the Democrats and Berlusconi’s right-wing People of Freedom party.  It not only does not include the Five Star Movement, it also does not include the Left Ecology Freedom party, the Democrats’ erstwhile ally, which has refused to join the coalition. Not exactly the dawn of new day.

Is this any way to build support and a new image among young voters?  No, in fact, it’s exactly the opposite, a way to convince these voters that you have nothing to say to them and simply want to keep the old system intact.  Until this changes, expect the traditional left in Europe to continue to fare poorly among young voters and for young voters to continue to support greens, liberals and unconventional new parties with a populist edge.

Economy

European Union Pledges To Curb Austerity — Will The U.S. Do The Same?

United States Treasury Secretary Jack Lew used his first official visit to the European Union to urge leaders there to rein in their austerity efforts and instead focus on economic growth. A week later, it appears the pressure may have worked, as Euro leaders ahead of the G20 summit in Brussels this week pledged to lessen their austerity efforts in the near future, Reuters reports:

The euro zone will slow its budgetary belt-tightening to help reinvigorate economic growth, a top EU official said on Thursday, highlighting a policy shift the United States has long been pressing for.

They are preaching to the converted,” EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told Reuters.

While European leaders argue that they had no choice but to pursue austerity in the wake of the financial crisis, when bond yields rose and the financial stability of nations like Greece, Italy, and Spain was in doubt, the focus on debt reduction has hampered economic growth. Eurozone unemployment is at record highs and the continent is back in a recession, and even the largest European economies have lagged. Great Britain, which has its own central bank and isn’t tied to the Euro, has also pursued austerity, and the results have been similar: unemployment has continued to rise and the country is on the brink of its third recession in four years.

The United States grew immediately after the recession, thanks in large part because it embraced stimulative policies instead of immediate austerity. Despite its anti-austerity urgings to the Europeans, America has since turned its attention to deficit reduction, and growth has slowed because of it. Government spending has plateaued since 2010, so instead of sparking recoveries as it traditionally has, fiscal policy has acted as a drag on the economy. The Federal Reserve has aided the recovery with stimulative monetary policies, but with borrowing costs at historic lows and unemployment still high, the U.S. could stand to heed its own advice and focus on immediate growth instead of the size of its deficits, which would naturally shrink as the economy grows anyway.

Economy

U.S. Treasury Secretary Urges Europe To Focus On Employment, Not Austerity

On his first official trip to Europe as head of the United States Treasury, Secretary Jack Lew urged European political and financial leaders to rethink the painful austerity plans they have enacted to address large debts and deficits across the continent and in some of Europe’s largest economies, including Spain, France, Italy, and Portugal.

European austerity has driven unemployment in the Eurozone to record highs and pushed the continent back into recession. With that in mind — and with the European economy putting headwind on the American recovery — Lew pushed European leaders to focus more on demand and employment than on deficits and debt, the Associated Press reports:

Lew, who became treasury secretary in February, started his first official trip to Europe with a meeting with EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. He also met the EU’s top economic and monetary official, Commissioner Olli Rehn, and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy.

I was particularly interested in our European partners’ plans to strengthen sources of demand at a time of rising unemployment,” he said, speaking alongside Van Rompuy.

While austerity was meant to address deficits, it hasn’t done a particularly strong job on that front either. Countries have missed deficit targets because of slumping growth caused by rapid fiscal contraction, resulting in an austerity death spiral: countries cut spending to reduce deficits, but those spending cuts lead to slower growth that in turn makes deficits larger, causing calls for even deeper spending cuts. The United Kingdom, for instance, stands on the brink of its third recession in four years even as its austerity measures have barely achieved deficit reduction at all.

The U.S. has proceeded toward recovery much faster than its European counterparts because it focused on demand with a large stimulus package in 2009; since then, Republicans in Congress have turned the conversation to reducing spending and blocked efforts to further boost demand and employment, including the American Jobs Act, which economists said would create more than a million jobs. As a result, government spending has plateaued in the last three years and failed to pull the economy toward a full recovery as it typically has after American recessions.

Climate Progress

More Sandy-Style Superstorms Likely Headed For Europe, Thanks To Global Warming

Waves hit the sea wall in Wimereux, France. (Photo: Reuters)

According to new climate modeling carried out at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, global warming likely means Europe will see more Sandy-style superstorms by the end of this century.

The team ran a simulation from 2094 to 2098, building in future greenhouse gas emissions, and found that the yearly arrival of hurricanes in the Bay of Biscay — which sits on the east coast between Spain and France — would increase from one to six. Researcher Reindert Haarsma put the number as high as thirteen by the end of the century. Many of the storms will likely also feature the same hybrid make-up of Hurricane Sandy: a core of warm, moist tropical air forming a hurricane-force core, with drier and colder air wrapping around the exterior and driving gale-force winds hundreds of miles further out.

Currently, hurricane formation in the tropics usually occurs far enough west that most storms hit North America. A rare number are caught by the Atlantic jet stream and pulled into Europe. But global warming will increase those instances by expanding the area of tropical ocean over which hurricanes form:

The rise in Atlantic tropical [sea surface temperatures] extends eastwards the breeding ground of tropical cyclones, yielding more frequent and intense hurricanes following pathways directed towards Europe. En route they transform into extra-tropical depressions and re-intensify after merging with the mid-latitude baroclinic unstable flow. Our model simulations clearly show that future tropical cyclones are more prone to hit Western Europe, and do so earlier in the season, thereby increasing the frequency and impact of hurricane force winds.

The study focused on winds, but Kevin Trenberth, the head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Summit County Citizens Voice that precipitation could be equally as bad. Global warming not only drives up the power of storms by adding heat energy to the oceans, it also leads to higher levels of precipitation because warmer air holds more moisture. “The resulting flooding episodes will likely dwarf the wind damage,” Trenberth said. “Although [in] some places like the Netherlands, both together could be disastrous.”

For instance, Sandy’s arrival in the northeastern United States killed 74 people and caused at least $20 billion in damage. That alone would make it one of the costliest American hurricanes ever, and some estimates put the damage as high as $45 billion.

Economy

Austerity Pushes European Unemployment To New Record High

The 17-nation Eurozone set another dubious record in the opening months of 2013, as its unemployment rate continued to climb from its already record-high rate. The jobless rate also rose for the European Union as a whole as austerity efforts continue to plague the continent’s recovery from the Great Recession:

The jobless rate reached 12 percent in both January and February, the highest since the creation of the euro in 1999, Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg.

The January jobless rate for the 17-nation currency union was revised upward from the previously reported 11.9 percent.

For the overall European Union, the February jobless rate rose to 10.9 percent from 10.8 percent in January, Eurostat said, with more than 26 million people without work across the 27-nation bloc.

Despite clear warnings that austerity isn’t boosting growth, some of the continent’s largest economies remain committed to deficit reduction. The United Kingdom, now on the precipice of its third recession in four years, has indicated that it will continue efforts to reduce the deficit, even as it has fallen far short of its past goals. The UK, in fact, has largely failed to put a dent in its deficit because austere policies have inhibited economic growth. Even Germany, the continent’s stalwart economy through the initial recovery, is lagging, and France announced last month that it would not seek to hit its deficit targets in 2013.

The United States took a different approach to recovery, boosting the economy with President Obama’s stimulus plan in 2009 and putting itself on a better path for growth than Europe has experienced. But it too has since embraced austerity. Government spending has traditionally boosted the economy out of downturns, but it has plateaued in recent years and has instead hamstrung the current recovery. Further budget cuts, such as the across-the-board sequester that went into effect March 1, could only make that worse.

Thus far, a rising housing market and strong retail sales provide evidence that the U.S. is still recovering, but manufacturing numbers slumped in March largely on concerns about how budget cuts would effect the economy. And while conservatives still claim that America’s “runaway spending” is harming the recovery, the truth is that the U.S. isn’t spending enough to give its economy the boost it needs to leave the Great Recession fully behind it.

Economy

The European Right Co-Opted Social Democracy Because It Works

The bastion of acceptable center-right opinion in Europe, The Economist magazine (or newspaper as they like to call it), ran a special report earlier this year on the success of the governing model of the Nordic nations trying to claim that the most egalitarian, feminist, social democratic nations in the world are shining examples of the wonders of conservative thinking.  If only we had these kind of conservatives in the United States.

Not surprisingly, as Joseph Schwartz noted recently in an article for Dissent magazine, The Economist report places inordinate attention on the libertarian side of Nordic life and less on the long standing tradition and success of social democracy in these countries:

The Economist never once mentions that the Nordic economic model of growth-with-equity derives from the continued existence of a powerful labor movement (union density is above 70 percent in each country, versus 11.3 percent in the United States and 17 percent in Great Britain). Nor does it tell us that the historical dominance of social democracy means that Nordic conservative parties resemble Obama-style Democrats. Even as social democratic parties move in and out of government, the “Nordic model” draws heavily upon the egalitarian values of its labor movement and social democratic parties.

The publics in these countries trust government because the social democrats built their welfare state upon a vision of comprehensive and universal social rights. All members of society receive publicly financed health care, child care, and education. The central government ensures that these goods are financed equitably and are of high quality—so the upper-middle class remains loyal to these services and gladly pays the high taxes to support them. The Nordic nations long ago recognized that means-tested programs end up being poorly funded and unsustainable because they are often opposed by those just above the poverty line. (The vicious politics of “welfare reform” in Britain and the United States depended upon only the poor being eligible for child-care support from the state.)

The Economist is clearly a free-market organ (albeit less doctrinaire than we are used to here in the U.S.)  and not in the business of defending progressive politics.  But it is still striking that much of the European right has decided to embrace and work with a hybrid model of social democracy and liberalism while their counterparts in the U.S. continue to go down a dead-end path of straight hostility and antagonism to all things public outside of the military.

Paul Ryan has tried recently to argue that his budget plans are a way to save the welfare state and ensure that vital public needs can be funded in the future.  If Ryan were, say, a moderate Swedish conservative, this might be believable.  But he’s the intellectual leader of the U.S. House Republicans and the Tea Party caucus, making it more than a little hard to put trust in his professed love for the welfare state.  American conservatives and the GOP have a majority in reach if they could find a way to drop the obvious hatred of government and their disdain for people who rely on the helping hand of the state to get by in our modern economic life, but they haven’t.

Conservatives don’t need to accept European-style social democracy.   But acceptance of the 20th century progressive accomplishments — like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, public interest regulations, national infrastructure investment, and funding for public education — might be a good place to start if they want to convince Americans that they understand their values and needs in the 21st century.

Election

CPAC Ideas: Republicans Versus Big Business?

The Republican Party retains, as its soul, its opposition to government intervention in the economy. On Friday afternoon, two CPAC panels demonstrated that the party can take this core commitment in two directions: either further down the dead end of applied Austrian ideology, or towards an problems-oriented application of free-market principles, one that responds to political issues in evidence rather than divining solutions from on high.

The GOP’s conventional economic wisdom was well on display at the panel entitled “The Europeanization of America.” Two European Parliament members huffed warnings (representative line: “you could compare Greece with California”), while two Republican members of the House treated the Continent as if it were being autopsied before the audience. Nowhere was there an attempt to seriously grapple with Europe — its across-the-board higher living standards and minimal economic inequality — or really do anything other than crow about the superiority the American economy to its European competitors. One couldn’t have imagined a better demonstration of the staleness of GOP economic doctrine.

But a panel directly afterwards — on whether we are “back on the road to serfdom” — offered two ways forward. Following the first, however, likely wouldn’t take the GOP to a place it wanted to go. Brian Domitrovic, a professor at Sam Houston State University, advocated the abolition of progressive income taxes and the Federal Reserve and a return to the gold standard. He surmised that, had we never left the gold standard, our GDP would be double its current size today. Res ipsa loquitur, I suppose.

The second speaker, The Washington Examiner‘s Tim Carney, developed a far more persuasive vision of conservative economic policy. Carney’s well known for his critique of crony capitalism, the fusion of government and business interests to the detriment of both, but what made his presentation interesting was its development of that theme into a broader guiding philosophy for conservatives, one that even some progressives might find something to like in.

On Carney’s picture, the central problem afflicting today’s political economy is its total penetration by big business. Businesses (he used General Electric, Boeing, and Microsoft as examples) devote extraordinary resources to lobbying, because, in its current state, the political system makes it a quick, if not necessary, path for prosperity. There are innumerable pathways to get tax breaks and legislative protections for one’s patented products through federal legislation, and corporations with means, being rational enough to recognize this, exploit them.

For Carney, this isn’t just one economic problem: it’s a fundamental one. The government-business nexus crushes what entrepreneurial “virtue,” it makes success not so much about hard work but ascending to the top of the corporate ladder inside a company whose advantages are guaranteed by federal fiat. People aren’t encouraged to innovate so much as conform, damaging both economic productivity and the moral character of people who attempt to participate in business. Or, in Carney’s words, “When you become a beggar, you become something slightly approaching a serf.”

Progressives concerned with the growing power of big business in our society should find a lot here. Carney didn’t propose much in the way of solutions, but a generalized vision of markets as a zone of society that all people, not just the powerful, should have access to is a radically anti-corporate one — one whose implications could be far more egalitarian than Carney would likely want. At the very least, it’s a conservative economic vision oriented around a real threat to our free market system — and not the imagined spectre of European socialism.

Economy

British Prime Minister Won’t Back Away From Austerity Despite Continuing Economic Woes

British Prime Minister David Cameron will use a speech Thursday to reiterate his commitment to the austerity policies that have hampered the nation’s economic recovery since the Great Recession. Great Britain is on the brink of an unprecedented triple-dip recession, but Cameron and United Kingdom finance chief George Osborne have pledged to continue deficit reduction efforts.

Turning away from austerity now, Cameron will say, would send Britain “back into the abyss,” Reuters reports:

However, Cameron will tell his audience he has cut the country’s deficit by a quarter, interest rates are at a record low, exports are reviving, the number of people on welfare has fallen, and there are more people in work “than ever before in our history”.

Of course, these signs of progress are just the beginning of a long hard road to a better Britain,” he will say.

Britain’s deficit has fallen, but it has done so far more slowly than Osborne and Cameron projected when they began austerity three years ago. In 2010, the British government projected that austerity would reduce the deficit from 4.8 percent of the economy to just 1.9 percent by now. Anemic economic growth and a second recession brought on by those policies, however, have left the deficit at 4.3 percent. The country is now one quarter of contraction away from its third recession in four years.

Austerity has plagued the European Union, of which Britain is a member, since the recession, forcing unemployment to record highs. Britain, however, is not a member of the European currency union and maintains its own central bank, making the conservative government’s continued adherence to deficit reduction all the more confounding. The same could be said of the United States, which is now focused almost solely on deficit reduction even as unemployment remains high, the recovery remains tepid, and evidence exists that the stimulative policies it originally pursued put it on a faster pace of recovery than Europe has experienced.

Economy

European Officials Expect Recession To Continue Until 2014, But Still Want More Austerity

The European Commission today revised previous estimates showing that Europe would return to economic growth this year, now saying that the continent may be mired in recession until 2014 due in part to “record joblessness“:

The 17-nation bloc’s economy, which generates nearly a fifth of global output, will shrink 0.3 percent in 2013, the Commission said, meaning the euro zone will remain in its second recession since 2009 for a year longer than originally foreseen.

The Commission, the EU executive, late last year forecast 0.1 percent growth in the euro zone’s economy for 2012, but now says tight lending conditions for companies and households, job cuts and frozen investment have delayed an expected recovery.

Of course, one of the causes of record joblessness is the continued austerity to which Europe has been subjected thanks to, among others, the European Commission. This chart shows that austerity has gone hand-in-hand with economic contraction in Europe:

But the European Commission has shown no evidence that it plans to recommend a move away towards austerity. And Eurozone officials can’t even handle mild criticism of their continued adherence to a policy that has delivered none of the promised results without lashing out. In the meantime, misery on the continent continues.

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