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Climate Progress

Congress In Contempt, Part 1: The Fiscal Cliff Is Only One Example Of Congressional Failure

by Bill Becker

There was a moment when the Founding Fathers considered putting a provision in the Constitution that would allow citizens to recall members of Congress. The proposal failed.  As a result, only members of Congress can remove other members of Congress from office.

It’s a pity.  As the 112th Congress passes into an ignominious history and a not-much-different 113th Congress takes over, one wishes the citizenry had the right to kick members out of office not just during an election year, but any time they don’t do their jobs.  Clearly, members of Congress are not doing their jobs today. By one measure, 95% of Americans think lawmakers are doing a lousy job.  One suspects the other 5% are the members of Congress themselves, along with their staffs and families.

The fiscal cliff debacle is merely the latest case in which our derelict and dysfunctional Congress has put the nation’s families, businesses and the overall economy at risk.  Even though Congress reached a last-minute agreement on the fiscal cliff last night,  significant damage already has been done by the politics of brinkmanship. From failing to fund Superstorm Sandy relief to outright denial of climate change, Congress has proved itself particularly inept.

Consider: While Congress went home for Christmas without reaching an agreement on taxes and spending, some 12 million Americans spent the holiday jobless. Two million of them lost their unemployment compensation when the crystal ball in Times Square hit bottom at the cusp of the New Year.

The health of America’s small businesses was a significant campaign issue in 2012, but it doesn’t seem to be a concern on Capitol Hill now that the election is over. The prospect of higher taxes and deep cuts in government programs caused consumer confidence to plummet six points in December, the most important time of year for business earnings, even more important this year as the economy continues climbing out of the pit created by the recession.

Think back over the last two years.  The genesis of the fiscal cliff was Congress’s standoff on raising the national debt ceiling in 2011. Legislation finally was approved only hours before the federal government defaulted on its debts.  Citing this “political brinksmanship” as a sign that Congress is “less able, less effective and less predictable” in managing the nation’s fiscal affairs, Standard & Poor’s took the unprecedented step of lowering America’s credit rating.

After last November’s election, in which voters seemed to signal they wanted an end to block-headed partisanship, congressional leaders expressed optimism they’d reach a deal  on taxes and spending before the end of the year. The fiscal cliff debacle indicates, however, that Congress didn’t get the message from voters or from Standard & Poor’s.  And another big cliff is just ahead: The need to raise the debt ceiling again in the next few weeks. The possible consequences of another standoff have been described by Jonathan Masters of the Council on Foreign Relations:

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Justice

Thanks To Gerrymandering, Democrats Would Need To Win The Popular Vote By Over 7 Percent To Take Back The House

America Wanted This Woman To Be Speaker of The House

As of this writing, every single state except Hawai’i has finalized its vote totals for the 2012 House elections, and Democrats currently lead Republicans by 1,362,351 votes in the overall popular vote total. Democratic House candidates earned 49.15 percent of the popular vote, while Republicans earned only 48.03 percent — meaning that the American people preferred a unified Democratic Congress over the divided Congress it actually got by more than a full percentage point. Nevertheless, thanks largely to partisan gerrymandering, Republicans have a solid House majority in the incoming 113th Congress.

A deeper dive into the vote totals reveals just how firmly gerrymandering entrenched Republican control of the House. If all House members are ranked in order from the Republican members who won by the widest margin down to the Democratic members who won by the widest margins, the 218th member on this list is Congressman-elect Robert Pittenger (R-NC). Thus, Pittenger was the “turning point” member of the incoming House. If every Republican who performed as well or worse than Pittenger had lost their race, Democrats would hold a one vote majority in the incoming House.

Pittenger won his race by more than six percentage points — 51.78 percent to 45.65 percent.

The upshot of this is that if Democrats across the country had performed six percentage points better than they actually did last November, they still would have barely missed capturing a majority in the House of Representatives. In order to take control of the House, Democrats would have needed to win the 2012 election by 7.25 percentage points. That’s significantly more than the Republican margin of victory in the 2010 GOP wave election (6.6 percent), and only slightly less than the margin of victory in the 2006 Democratic wave election (7.9 percent). If Democrats had won in 2012 by the same commanding 7.9 percent margin they achieved in 2006, they would still only have a bare 220-215 seat majority in the incoming House, assuming that these additional votes were distributed evenly throughout the country. That’s how powerful the GOP’s gerrymandered maps are; Democrats can win a Congressional election by nearly 8 points and still barely capture the House.

For two months, the nation has suffered through a “fiscal cliff” argument that threatened to plunge the nation into another recession. If the incoming Congress bore any resemblance to the one the American people voted for, however, this threat would have disappeared on Election Day because Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi would have no problem rounding up the votes to eliminate this so-called cliff and set America back on the path to economic growth.

Worse, top Republicans are already threatening to use the looming debt ceiling fight to torpedo the entire U.S. economy unless Congress agrees to slash Social Security or Medicare benefits for seniors. They will have the leverage to attempt this because the incoming House bears no resemblance to the one America actually voted for. And individual Republican House members will be able to engage in this political dangerous game of chicken comfortable in the knowledge that partisan gerrymandering makes many of them untouchable in a general election.

Partisan gerrymanders, like the one that now all but locks the GOP majority in place, have been the subject of repeated court challenges. America can thank the five conservative justices on the Supreme Court for allowing these gerrymanders to continue.

Update

Thanks to Dana Milbank for highlighting this analysis in his column this weekend. I have made a spreadsheet ranking the 2012 House races and showing how much Democrats would need to win the national popular vote in order to win each seat (assuming all Democratic gains over their 2012 totals are uniform throughout the country) available here.

Economy

Democratic Congressman Laughs At Fox News’ Fiscal Cliff Misinformation

Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) schooled the hosts of Fox & Friends on the details of the deal to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff” during an appearance to explain his opposition to the Senate-passed compromise on Wednesday morning. Smith also laughed off the network’s suggestion that President Obama has not offered specific spending cuts.

Smith said he voted against the “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012” because the measure locked in low revenue levels that could necessitate dramatic spending cuts in the future. The Fox News hosts appeared incredulous, however, arguing that Obama failed to put any spending cuts on the table or show leadership on entitlement reform. Once Smith pointed to Obama’s proposal to change the growth of Social Security benefits, co-host Steve Doocy quickly dismissed the plan as a “nonstarter.” The Congressman laughed at the network’s attempt to criticize Obama and then debunked its claim that the GOP offered more specific spending reductions than the president:

DOOCY: Congressman, it’s great that you’re worried about spending and taxes, but you know, there are a lot of people who are watching this and they see the president and he really took no leadership when it comes to cutting spending with the budget and with this latest crisis, so it seems like….

SMITH: I don’t actually agree with that. The president put on the table cuts to entitlements. He put on the table the chained CPI issue, among other issues.

DOOCY: Wait, but that was a nonstarter for a lot of people in your party.

SMITH: [Laughs] Here is the thing, I mean you can say, ‘well, he’s not showing leadership.’ But now what you’re saying is he showed leadership, but nobody else was willing to. So it’s really hard to blame the president … As long as we’re talking about the president, let me also make the point, Speaker Boehner, the Republicans, what have they put on the table in terms of specific spending?

BRIAN KILMEADE (CO-HOST): Look at the Ryan plan. Look at the budget they passed.

SMITH: No. A budget is not an appropriations bill, Brian. The budget said across the board, we will cut 10%. We’re not going to tell you what, we’re not going to tell you where. We’re just going to imagine that it’s going to happen. In terms of specific spending cuts, the president had actually put more on the table during this last negotiation than the so-called fiscal conservatives leading the House.

KILMEADE: Really? Because I don’t know anything that he wanted to cut besides defense.

SMITH: I just told you! I just told you!

Watch it:

“I’m concerned that revenue has been sort of taken off the table at this point,” Smith said. Ninety-percent “of the Bush tax cuts are now locked in permanently, so any effort to deal with the very large debt and deficit that we have going down the road here revenue is pretty much off the table and we didn’t get much. Those are my concerns and that’s why I voted no.”

Economy

House Passes Senate’s Fiscal Cliff Bill

After threatening to amend the Senate’s fiscal cliff bill to include spending reductions, the House passed the measure Tuesday evening by a vote of 257-167, with 85 Republican votes. 151 Republicans, including House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), and 16 Democrats voted against the bill. The “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012” now goes to President Obama for his signature.

During debate, Rep. Dave Camp (R-MI) urged Republicans to support the bill, arguing that it “settles the level of revenue Washington should bring in.” The GOP has indicated that it would not support revenue increases in the upcoming battles to raise the debt ceiling, turn off the sequester cuts, and keep the government running through a continuing budget resolution. Instead, conservative lawmakers in both the House and the Senate have said that they will take advantage of these critical debates to extract deep cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

“I just don’t want the gentleman’s statement that this settles permanently how much revenue will be made available,” Rep. Sandy Levin (D-MI) said in response to Camp. “The President has made clear there has to be a balanced approach and no one should be misled into thinking otherwise. No one.”

As the House began voting on the measure, Grover Norquist gave his blessing, tweeting that since the vote took place in the new year — after the Bush tax cuts have technically expired — “Every R voting for Senate bill is cutting taxes and keeping his/her pledge.”

Update

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) explains why he voted in favor of the bill: “When you like something, you vote for it. …I wasn’t afraid.” House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), who usually doesn’t vote, also backed the measure.

Update

In a statement from the White House, President Obama praised the bill as “one step in the broader effort to strengthen our economy.” But he admitted that “the deficit is still too high” and called for a balanced approach of raising new revenues by closing tax loopholes and eliminating deductions for rich individuals and corporations and cutting government spending. Obama called Medicare the “biggest contributor to our deficit” and said that Congress must “find a way to reform our program without hurting seniors who count on it to survive.” He also drew an important line in the sand, reiterating that he “will not have another debate with this Congress over whether or not they should pay the bills that they’ve already racked up, through the laws that they passed.” If Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, Obama said, “the consequences for the entire global economy would be catastrophic, far worse than the impact of a fiscal cliff.”

Politics

GOP Congressmen Suggest Republican Senators Who Voted For ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Compromise Were Drunk

House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-CA), who is joining a growing number of Republicans trying to add more spending cuts to the last-minute fiscal cliff deal and send it back to the Senate, joked that Senators may have been drunk when they passed the measure in the early hours of Jan 1.

Responding to a question on CNN’s The Situation Room about why fiscal hawks like Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) supported the measure in the Senate, Issa implied that the 89 senators voted for the compromise because of the late night partying in celebration of the New Year. Pressed by host Wolf Blitzer for clarification, Issa said that he was just “having a little fun” with his answer:

BLITZER: All of those 89, including all of those conservative Republicans, including Pat Toomey and others, they were wrong?

ISSA: You know, Wolf, frankly I can’t account for what happens after midnight and all of that partying and revelry and drinking that goes on on New Years Eve at 2:00 in the morning. What I can tell you is they did half of a bill. The half of the bill certainly is going to be popular in the way of holding down taxes but the other half is there’s no spending reductions…. In other words, $4 trillion will be added to the debt over ten years with this tax cut unless we do some spending cuts to help offset it. Right now the president is still in a spending mood. We need to get him in a savings mood.

BLITZER: I just want to clarify one point, you said it was after the new year’s and they were partying. Are you suggesting that Mitch McConnell and your fellow Republicans in the Senate they were a little bit drunk when they voted on this last night?

ISSA: Of course not. I was having a little fun with you, Wolf. The fact is, it was after midnight. It was a piece of legislation intended to be passable, not necessarily to be right.

Watch it:

Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-OH) made a similar comment to reporters, saying, “Our sense…was that a number of the [Senate] Republicans who voted for it must have been drunk.”

Following a Tuesday afternoon GOP conference meeting, House Republicans, including House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), are publicly opposing the Senate-passed measure. Members are reportedly working on adding an amendment that would reduce spending. But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has vowed to block any further changes to the bill, leaving Boehner with the options of: 1) putting the Senate-passed bill to a House vote (and see it pass with Democratic votes and overwhelming Republican opposition) or 2) adding spending cuts that “they know Democrats can’t live with,” passing the revised bill through the House with little if any Democratic support, and see it go nowhere the Senate — sending the nation over the cliff.

Update

The House will vote on the Senate bill as written, without a spending amendment, at around 11:00 PM. The measure is expected to pass, at which point it will go to President Obama for his signature.

Economy

House Republican Says GOP Will Send Fiscal Bill Back To Senate

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL)

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL)

On his way out of a House Republican Conference meeting, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL) said the bipartisan “fiscal cliff” compromise will “go back to the Senate,” the National Review’s Robert Costa reports. If true, this would mean the House will not agree with the compromise negotiated Monday by Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).


A just-released analysis by the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would increase the nation’s budget deficit by nearly $4 trillion over the next ten years (as compared to allowing the tax cuts to expire and deep spending cuts to take effect).

Update

With House Republican Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) and other members of his caucus opposing the bipartisan Senate deal, House Republicans are reportedly working to craft an amendment a majority would support. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has vowed to block any further changes to the bill.

Climate Progress

What Does The Fiscal Cliff Debacle Say About Our Chances To Avoid The Far More Worrisome Climate Cliff?

What a sorry spectacle it has been in Washington, DC these last few weeks. Our political leaders failed to meet their self-imposed deadline for dealing with the deficit in a manner that doesn’t mean austerity-driven recession.

And while it looks like they do have a bipartisan deal — assuming it can pass the House after winning easy Senate approval — the plan avoids many of the toughest choices (details here).

The deal isn’t terrible — it extends the wind tax credit, for instance. In the top story on its website, the NY Times asserts that the plan “while containing many concessions that angered Democrats, still favors the latter party’s priorities and imposes a tax increase on the wealthiest Americans.”

Perhaps, but as Nobelist Paul Krugman explains in a blog post this morning, we won’t know if the deal was sort-of-okay or dreadful until we see what happens next (in the debt ceiling fight):

If Obama stands his ground in that confrontation, this deal won’t look bad in retrospect. If he doesn’t, yesterday will be seen as the day he began throwing away his presidency and the hopes of everyone who supported him.

That final sentence is true only if you don’t count Obama’s failure on climate as the day(s) he began throwing away his presidency and the hopes of countless generations (see “Obama Wins Reelection, Now Must Become A Climate Hawk To Avoid Dust-Bin Of History, Dust Bowl For America“).

The NY Times concludes that one big lesson from the debacle is “Grand Bargains Give Way to Quick Fixes” and “bipartisan legislative dreams seem all but certain to be miniaturized” — but that has been obvious for a while. It’s not like Obama got any House GOP votes to support either the stimulus bill or health care plan.

Indeed, the fiscal cliff was a largely manufactured crisis, as Krugman explained in his Sunday NYT oped, “Brewing Up Confusion.” The truth is for all the political hand-wringing, all the media sturm und drang, neither party considers the deficit the preeminent or most urgent economic threat to the nation. Progressives understand slow economic growth and high unemployment are the top problems and that the solution is more investment plus help for the unemployed. The Tea Party crowd that have taken over the conservative movement (and GOP) thinks government spending is the problem (otherwise they would have hardly been so adamant against tax hikes being part of a grand bargain).

Cartoonists, at least, get that the fiscal cliff is a mild sore throat compared to the early-stage emphysema that is the climate cliff.

Image by Matt Bors/Daily Kos via Buzzfeed.

So perhaps the headline question should have been “Does The Fiscal Cliff Debacle Say Anything New About Our Chances To Avoid Climate Cliff?” To answer that question, it’s worth pointing out what we already knew about those chances from the last truly big economic threat to the nation — which I discussed in an October 2008 post, “Is 450 ppm (or less) politically possible? Part 7: The harsh lessons of the financial bailout.” I’m excerpting it below because the piece shows how little has changed in 4+ years:

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NEWS FLASH

Senate Passes ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Compromise 89-8 | In an 89-8 vote after 2 am, the U.S. Senate endorsed the bipartisan compromise negotiated Monday to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff.” The agreement allows the Bush-era tax cuts for family incomes beyond $450,000 annually to expire, slightly increases the estate tax rate (but also indexes the exemption to inflation), postpones the sequestration budget cuts for two months, and extends unemployment benefits for a year. The agreement does not address the debt limit. The House is expected to take up the compromise bill Tuesday, in a rare New Year’s Day session.

Economy

Everything You Need To Know About The Emerging ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Compromise

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Vice President Joe Biden have reportedly reached an agreement that would solve the tax side of the debate over the so-called “fiscal cliff,” the package of tax increases and spending cuts that will begin automatically at midnight tonight.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and the Democratic caucus have not yet indicated support for the compromise, which extends most of the Bush tax cuts and other tax provisions, and while the Senate may vote tonight, no vote is expected in the House before tonight’s deadline. Here is a breakdown of the different provisions of the reported compromise:

Bush tax cuts: The deal would extend all of the Bush tax cuts for incomes below $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for families, while reinstating the Clinton-era 39.6 percent tax rate for income above those thresholds. It will also push the capital gains rate on investment income back to 20 percent for income above $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for families. President Obama had asked for an extension of rates only for incomes below $250,000.

Stimulus tax credits: Three tax credits expanded as part of the stimulus will be extended for one year as part of the compromise. The America’s Opportunity Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and Earned Income Tax Credit collectively benefit nearly 20 million Americans each year, and extending them was a priority for Obama and Democrats. Republicans allowed all three to expire in tax legislation earlier this year.

Payroll tax cut: The payroll tax cut would expire as part of this compromise. The payroll tax cut, which benefits all wage-earning workers, is the most damaging piece of the “fiscal cliff” according to the Congressional Budget Office. Republicans have opposed extending the payroll tax cut in the past; many Democrats opposed its extension over fears that it would undermine Social Security, which it helps fund.

Unemployment insurance: The federal unemployment insurance program would be extended for one year under this deal. Without an extension, more than 2 million would lose benefits at the beginning of 2013, while another million would lose them in the early part of the year.

Estate tax: The estate tax was set to revert to its Clinton-era levels, where it was taxed at 55 percent after a $1 million exemption. This deal would set the exemption at $5 million and tax at a 40 percent rate after that — at a cost of $375 billion over 10 years compared to the Clinton level.

Other provisions: The deal would also include a permanent fix to the Alternative Minimum Tax and a one-year “doc fix,” which would prevent cuts in provider payments through Medicare. It also extends certain corporate tax provisions for another year.

The reported McConnell-Biden compromise does not deal with the spending cuts side of the fiscal cliff, though CNN’s Dana Bash reported that the sequester may simply be delayed for two months. The spending cuts are the part of the fiscal cliff that the Congressional Budget Office says would be the most damaging to America’s economic growth. It also does not include an increase in the debt ceiling, setting up another fight over the coming months like the one that created the fiscal cliff in the first place.

Update

The New York Times reports a tentative deal has been struck: “Senate Republicans said negotiators also agreed to put off $110 billion in across-the-board cuts to military and domestic programs for two months while broader deficit reduction talks continue.” Also the $5 million estate tax exemption will be indexed to inflation.

Update

Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi have signed off on the deal.

Economy

Federal Unemployment Benefits Expire Due To Congressional Inaction

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) urged lawmakers to embrace a package that could avert the so-called fiscal cliff, noting that 2.1 million Americans have already lost federal unemployment benefits as a result of Congressional inaction. “From this point on, it is lose-lose,” Feinstein explained, during an appearance on Fox News Sunday. “My big worry, is, a contraction of the economy. The loss of jobs, which could be well over 2 million in addition to the people already on unemployment.”

Indeed, the National Employment Law Project, a worker advocacy group, projects that “more than 2 million Americans will stop receiving benefits after Dec. 29, when the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation program will cease to exist.” The benefits have kept 2.3 million out of poverty last year alone, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that a full, year-long extension would lead to the creation of 300,000 new jobs.

The initiative requires recipients to search for a job while receiving payments, and one study found that unemployment recipients search harder for jobs than those who are not receiving money from the program.

Earlier this week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) demanded spending cuts to pay for the program, which would cost $30 billion. Democrats have been pushing for a full extension of benefits.

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