By Jessica Goad, Manager of Research and Outreach, Center for American Progress Action Fund.

This morning the House Natural Resources Committee held a hearing entitled “Harnessing American Resources to Create Jobs and Address Rising Gasoline Prices: Families and Cost-of-Life Impacts.”

Rather than focus on actual solutions to rising gas prices, Republican committee members advocated for more drilling, a policy which would increase big oil profits but does not decrease gas prices.  In his opening remarks, Chairman Doc Hastings’ (R-WA) stated:

In order to address rising gasoline prices, we must do everything we can to increase production here in the U.S. We have the energy resources; we just need the federal government to get out of the way.

Unfortunately, more drilling does not decrease gas prices.  As the Associated Press reported this morning:

It’s the political cure-all for high gas prices: Drill here, drill now. But more U.S. drilling has not changed how deeply the gas pump drills into your wallet, math and history show.

A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump.

This is because oil prices are set on the world market, and are “relatively insensitive to what happens here in the United States with regards to production,” as Senator Jeff Bingaman put it recently.

So why are Republicans continuing to advocate for more drilling as a panacea to high gas prices?  Perhaps because 88 percent of all political contributions from oil and gas companies go to Republicans.  The Natural Resources Committee itself takes an astounding amount of campaign money from oil and gas, as seen in this chart that ThinkProgress put together in November 2011.

In addition to promoting more drilling as a solution to high gas prices, witnesses called by the Republicans at today’s hearing went so far as to oppose additional solutions to high gas prices.  Congressman Ed Markey (D-MA) asked each majority witness if they would support keeping the oil and refined products from the Keystone XL pipeline in American, and each stated he or she would not support.  This mirrors the voting pattern of Republicans—all but nine in the entire House voted against a similar amendment to keep American oil on American soil in February of this year.

Additionally, the facts show that under the Obama administration, we are drilling more in America than everywhere else in the world combined.  As of March 16^th, there were 1,984 rotary rigs operating in the U.S., while only 1,721 in the rest of the world.  The number of oil drilling rigs in the U.S. hit a record in February, and have quadrupled over the last three years.

Rather than having hearings about real solutions to gas prices, Republicans on this committee insist on perpetuating myths about the role of domestic drilling in decreasing gas prices.  Next week, they are having another hearing on the subject, and it remains to be seen what “solutions” they will address.

Experts deny that drilling brings down gas prices, despite how often Republicans claim to have the “silver bullet.” Now, the Associated Press reports that an analysis of 36 years of Energy Information Administration data shows “no statistical correlation” between domestic oil production and gas prices.

AP writes:

U.S. oil production is back to the same level it was in March 2003, when gas cost $2.10 per gallon when adjusted for inflation. But that’s not what prices are now.

That’s because oil is a global commodity and U.S. production has only a tiny influence on supply. Factors far beyond the control of a nation or a president dictate the price of gasoline.

When you put the inflation-adjusted price of gas on the same chart as U.S. oil production since 1976, the numbers sometimes go in the same direction, sometimes in opposite directions. If drilling for more oil meant lower prices, the lines on the chart would consistently go in opposite directions. A basic statistical measure of correlation found no link between the two, and outside statistical experts confirmed those calculations.

Domestic oil production is at its highest level in eight years. According to the AP, if drilling dictated gas prices, they should already be at the $2 Republicans promise. However, gas prices fluctuate based on a variety of factors, including speculation and tensions in the Middle East.

These facts haven’t stopped Republicans from rallying around “drill, baby, drill.” President Barack Obama quipped last week on the GOP’s drilling fever: “I guess there’s some empty spots where we’re not drilling. We’re not at the National Mall. We’re not drilling at your house.”

On a campaign trail rife with inaccurate gas price promises, Mitt Romney fought the idea that speculation and heated rhetoric on Iran is boosting gas prices. Romney instead argued high gas prices are related to insufficient drilling offshore, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and the Keystone XL pipeline, saying “those things affect gasoline prices, long term”:

Maybe it’s related to the fact that you stopped drilling in the, in the Gulf. Maybe it’s related to the fact, Mr. President, that you are not drilling in ANWR. Maybe it’s related to the fact that you said we couldn’t get a pipeline in from Canada known as Keystone. Those things affect gasoline prices, long term.

Romney brushed off speculation’s role in the gas price spike, but McClatchy writes that oil prices have been skyrocketing “thanks again in no small part to rampant financial speculation on top of fears of supply disruptions… When they dominate the market, as they do, speculators’ bids can make their prophecies self-fulfilling.”

The Republican “solution” to drill more would mean “more profit for domestic crude producers rather than significantly lower gasoline prices for Americans,” according to the Koch-funded Cato Institute. The Wall Street Journal also wrote, “producing a lot of oil doesn’t lower the price of gasoline in your country.”

Like Newt Gingrich, who promises $2.50 gas, Romney’s claim that “drill, baby, drill” helps the 99 percent has no support.

With international tensions and Wall Street speculation pushing gas prices up, experts are floating the possibility of $5 gas prices this summer. Conservatives have seized on unsubstantiated explanations for higher gas prices, from President Obama “wanting” expensive gas to restricting domestic production, despite it being at an eight-year high.

Today, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson said that the “supply and demand is fine” — the driving factor is “concerns about the rhetoric” over Iran. As Tillerson points out, hawkish rhetoric is enough to fuel oil speculation and gas prices:

As I look at just the supply and demand fundamentals, I would not expect to see prices reach that [$5] level. Again, the unknown in here is if the markets view of the political risk, if the rhetoric gets more heated, if there’s a problem someplace else in the world that flares up, then certainly it can drive these prices up further.

Even during last year’s price spike, Tillerson admitted the major role speculation played, adding up to $40 more per barrel.

Exxon is not especially interested in oil production levels or easing gas prices, despite lambasting “dysfunctional regulation.” Not only is supply and demand “fine,” but Tillerson noted the company cares less about production than maximizing profits:

Rather than immediate production, Mr Tillerson said a priority for the company was to do “a lot of studying” to understand how to maximise the long-term value of its resources.

“A lot of the players in this space are more cash-flow driven. We’re return-driven. We don’t have ongoing cash flow to maintain our holding around these resources. It’s really about how are we going to develop these over the next 20 to 30 years and have them really generate good profitability.”

Of course, this is not the story the industry tries to tell the public. Big oil benefits from the higher gas prices — no matter whether it’s driven by speculation on international conflict. The big five are slated to take at least $5.8 billion more profit from higher prices for the first three months this year.