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Stories tagged with “Herbert Hoover

Yglesias

In The Long Run…

Cato’s Chris Edwards offers his proposal for warding off depression: “What Obama should do is a pass a large corporate tax rate cut, which would spur long-run growth.” Yes, neo-Hooverism taken to new and exciting heights allowing everyone to dust off the Keynes line about how in the long-run we’re all dead in an appropriate context. Long-run growth is important, but it’s not going to be worth anything unless we get out of the downward spiral that’s facing us immediately.

Meanwhile, what we actually need is corporate tax reform — close loopholes, grow the tax base, and lower the tax rate.

Yglesias

Why Neo-Hooverism Now?

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As I documented, the right initially tended toward a neo-Hooverite line on the economic crisis. Then came a seeming shift and the emergence of a broad consensus in favor of strong action. Recently, though, there’s been a tilt back in the neo-Hooverite direction even as the crisis has grown more severe and along with it, increased blogospheric interest in what motivates neo-Hooverism. Steve Benen offered a five-fold categorization of motives:

  1. The Moral Explanation: Ed Kilgore explains that some on the right thing America is too fate and happy. This is a bit like David Frum’s nineties vintage Donner Party conservatism.
  2. The Benefactor Explanation: Matt Stoller says the right is more interested in entrenching inequality than worrying about the economy.
  3. The Illiterate Explanation: Maybe they’re just dumb.
  4. The Strategic Explanation: TPM Reader JF observes that a long depression serves the GOP’s political interests.

The obvious thing to say about this is that these explanations are mutually re-enforcing. In particular, the fact that a prolonged economic downturn serves the GOP’s political interests massively increases the grasp of the other factors. It’s one thing for a political party to buck the desires of its interest-group base or the ideological biases of its core supporters when doing so is necessary for the party’s political fortunes. But to buck those desires when doing so would be bad for the party’s electoral prospects is really asking a lot.

Beyond that, the emergence of age polarization in the electorate may play a role here. Elderly people, and especially the more prosperous group of elderly people, are actually reasonable well-positioned to weather a deflationary storm. By contrast, young people pay a huge lifelong economic price for graduating into a weak labor market or getting laid off after only a few years in the workforce.

Media

Ruth Marcus Signs Up For Neo-Hooverism

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As I’ve been documenting, there’s a disturbing plague of neo-Hooverism sweeping through elements of our punditocracy. Perhaps Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman will come along with a blog post explaining why the neo-Hooverite mania is wrong, but for now you’ll have to settle for me and Dean Baker. But the epicenter of the bug appears to be the opinion pages of The Washington Post and the latest victim is columnist Ruth Marcus who’s skeptically hoping that the next president will embrace what she calls “the New Sobriety.”

This kind of analogistic thinking is deadly when it comes to fiscal policy. For an individual, it’s true that high savings rates are virtuous and bring the prospect of greater prosperity in years to come. Thus, it’s seductive to think that public sector budgeting is the same. But it just isn’t the same.

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When you’re facing a recession, especially a recession wherein monetary policy has little ability to stimulate aggregate demand because the banking system is all seized up (remind you of anything?), you need public policy to stimulate aggregate demand. The recession is caused by overall demand for liquidity getting too high. In those circumstances, it becomes rational for any given individual and any given business to also prefer saving to spending. But that only makes things worse. What’s needed is for the government to break the cycle with deficit spending. Marcus’ alternative theory was tried by Herbert Hoover in the early 1930s and again by Japan in the 1990s and it doesn’t work. What did work a little was the New Deal and then the truly balls-to-the-wall spending of World War II worked much better. Excessive virtue amidst the current crisis will doom us all.

Meanwhile, none of this is to deny that it was a mistake for the Bush administration to run up such huge deficits. The flipside of the need for deficit spending during a recession is that responsible political leadership takes advantage of good economic times to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. The fact that Bush did the reverse makes us worse positioned to cope with the current crisis than we would be had he behaved more responsibly. But past irresponsibility does not imply that future irresponsibility in the opposite direction becomes a good idea.

Politics

With ‘fundamentals are strong’ comments, McCain borrows Hoover’s Depression-era rhetoric.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) continues to insist that the “fundamentals of our economy are strong.” As Eric Rauchway notes in the American Prospect, McCain’s response to this economic crisis is reminiscent of President Herbert Hoover’s “do-nothing” response to the Great Depression. On October 25, 1929, a day after what is now known as Black Thursday, Hoover declared:

The fundamental business of the country, that is the production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.

McCain’s Hooverism — in word and in deed — is also in line with another subscriber to “do-nothing economics,” President George W. Bush.

Update

As ThinkProgress noted yesterday, John McCain has described the economy’s fundamentals as “strong” at least 18 times over the past year. Progressive Accountability has produced a video compiling all 18 references McCain has made to the “strong” economy. Watch it:

Yglesias

Strong Fundamentals

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Eric Rauchway reflects on Herbert Hoover’s October 25, 1929 proclamation that “The fundamental business of the country, that is the production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.”

Hoover worked to get businessmen to respond to the crisis by herding them into conferences and urging them to cooperate. He backed immigration restriction and a cut in the capital-gains tax. He quarreled with the unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. None of it worked, and yet Hoover insisted on the soundness of fundamentals, blaming the continuing crisis on whiners: “The income of a large part of our people is not reduced by the depression,” he said, “but is affected by unnecessary fears and pessimism.” He urged his fellow countrymen to count on “the magnificent working of the Federal Reserve system and the inherently sound condition of the banks.”

But the banks were not inherently sound; they depended on the unsound foundation of 1920s lending. After the crash, the president said the fundamentals were strong, but American consumers said, in effect, well, we’ll see, and their credit-driven buying slowed. Purchases of consumer durables in 1930 were about 20 percent lower than they were in 1929. Less purchasing meant less selling and more layoffs, which meant still less purchasing and soon more defaulting. The banks began to fail. Meanwhile, the “magnificent working of the Federal Reserve” did not stop the bank failures, which increased to sickening levels as Hoover’s term ground on and the reality of the Depression became undeniable.

Now of course to actually get down to the depths of the Depression required some policy blunders that I think it’s extremely unlikely anyone in the contemporary United States will undertake. But there is an undeniable commonality to the off-the-shelf conservative policy prescriptions here.

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