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Security

The European Left’s Youth Problem

Here in the United States, we are used to thinking of the Millennial generation as progressive in a fairly straightforward and uncomplicated way. Members of this generation lean left on both social and economic issues and cast their vote accordingly for Democratic candidates.

In Europe, things are more complicated. It is true that Millennials in Europe are notably cosmopolitan, tolerant, and open-minded compared to the outlook of previous generations. But it is also true that they are a generation whose access to economic mobility bears a vexed relationship to the welfare state and to older voters, who are its chief beneficiaries.

Despite these complications, the good news for European progressives is that this generation appears to lean left in most countries. The bad news is that progressive Millennial voters in most countries tend to fragment their vote among a multiplicity of parties. Many of them look beyond the main left or social democratic parties and cast their vote for greens or social liberals or even new anti-establishment parties. This appears to be a universal problem for the main left parties, which weakens their ability to compete with the right. The relative unattractiveness of social democrats to younger voters in their countries is resulting in the rapid aging of the support base for these parties. Betting on older voters to keep social democrats politically viable is a risky strategy, but it is, in effect, where many social democratic parties are currently placing their bets.

Out of economic and political necessity, social democrats and labor parties will have to change course and devote far more attention to younger voters. Mass unemployment in southern Europe, declining youth-employment opportunity across the continent, and burgeoning retirement and health care costs from the baby boomers all imply that the social democrats’ key historical achievement — the welfare state — will need radical reform if it is to gain support from this new generation. Moreover, as the younger generation is less deferential and more cosmopolitan in outlook, social democrats will also need to pay far greater attention to both broader policy issues like as the environment and civil liberties and the organizing structure of their political movements. Both will require social democrats to rethink their core political commitments.

Can they do it? Recent events do not inspire confidence, at least in the short run. Nowhere is this clearer than in Italy.  Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment party, the Five Star Movement, came out of nowhere in the recent election to become Italy’s largest party, powered by the youth vote. Despite the Five Star Movement’s generally progressive program (anti-austerity, anti-corruption laws, political system reform, protecting the environment, universal unemployment benefit, local referendums on large public works), the Democratic party, the second-largest party and Italy’s main left party, has made little effort to reach out to Grillo and his movement.

This came to a head with the refusal of the Democratic Party’s leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, to back a candidate for President, leftist lawyer and politician Stefano Rodata, who had the support of the Five Star Movement, of the youth-oriented Left Ecology Freedom party (with which the Democratic Party had formed an electoral alliance) and of a large chunk of his own party, including the dynamic 38 year old mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi. Instead, Bersani backed an 80 year old right wing candidate, Franco Marini, simply because he was acceptable to Silvio Berlusconi, the billionaire media magnate and maximum leader of the Italian right.

Marini went down to ignominious defeat, with many Democratic Party legislators voting against him, as did another candidate backed by Bersani.  In the end, 87 year old Giorgio Napolitano, the incumbent President, agreed to serve another term and was duly re-elected, though over the vociferous objections of the Five Star Movement.  The whole episode fatally undermined Bersani’s hold on his party and he has resigned.

On the positive side, Bersani’s resignation cleared a path for new blood in the Democratic party in the form of 46 year old Democratic Party politician Enrico Letta, now prime minister of a new coalition government.  On the negative side, the new coalition government basically consists of the two big traditional parties, the Democrats and Berlusconi’s right-wing People of Freedom party.  It not only does not include the Five Star Movement, it also does not include the Left Ecology Freedom party, the Democrats’ erstwhile ally, which has refused to join the coalition. Not exactly the dawn of new day.

Is this any way to build support and a new image among young voters?  No, in fact, it’s exactly the opposite, a way to convince these voters that you have nothing to say to them and simply want to keep the old system intact.  Until this changes, expect the traditional left in Europe to continue to fare poorly among young voters and for young voters to continue to support greens, liberals and unconventional new parties with a populist edge.

Economy

Grover Norquist Endorses Italian ‘Tea Party’ Group’s Anti-Tax Pledge

Conservatives in Italy — a country that was neither colonized by Great Britain nor staged a massive civil disobedience campaign centered on hot beverages — are trying to form their own “Tea Party,” using Grover Norquist’s anti-tax pledge as a central organizing tool. US News & World Report has more:

A group called Tea Party Italia, inspired by the tea party movement in the U.S. and by Norquist’s pledge, created a similar taxpayer contract it is pushing ahead of the country’s general election next month. The pledge says politicians won’t raise taxes and will work to reduce the country’s debt, which the Associated Press reports hit a record $2.64 trillion in December.

But getting politicians to sign on to the pledge might prove more of a challenge.

“Candidates in the U.S. want to sign this pledge because they have to do a difficult and hard campaign,” he says. Italian candidates, on the other hand, are chosen by the party and don’t go through a campaign season. “So it’s very difficult to find [politicians] that believe in our ideas in Italy.”

Norquist penned a letter to the group earlier this month endorsing the “Italian taxpayer protection pledge,” a move that could make it significantly more difficult for the country to retire it’s $2.6 trillion debt. Conservatives in other countries, from Japan to Israel, have tried to emulate similar tactics as well.

One reason why Norquist may be looking overseas for support is that his power is waning back home. Norquist’s pledge contributed to dozens of GOP losses in 2012 and Republicans subsequently abandoned him in droves during the fiscal cliff negotiations.

LGBT

Italian Prime Minister Turns Against Marriage Equality

Mario Monti

Last month, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti distanced himself from the issue of same-sex marriage, saying that the question of same-sex marriage should be decided by Parliament, not by him or any outside force. He even suggested it was an issue of “personal dignity.” Apparently, Monti’s friends at the Vatican were not too keen on this position, and now he’s come out against marriage equality:

MONTI: My thought is that the family should be made up of one man and one woman, and I consider it necessary that children should grow up with a mother and a father. Parliament can find other solutions for other kinds of unions and cohabitations.

Monti was appointed 14 months ago to replace the scandal-ridden Silvio Berlusconi when he resigned after losing his majority in Parliament. Berlusconi is now plotting a comeback, however, and has expressed his support for marriage equality. Given The Vatican’s newly intensified dedication to opposing same-sex marriage, the issue could be hotly contested in the upcoming election.

NEWS FLASH

Berlusconi Claims Support For Marriage Equality | Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi claimed last week that he supports marriage equality, saying, “I’m in favor of granting legal status to couples who live together, including gays. If there is a majority that makes it possible to change the civil code.” LGBT groups are not impressed, however, pointing out that during his previous reign he “did nothing for LGBT people.” Berlusconi is vying for re-election while simultaneously facing trial for allegedly having sex with an underage prostitute. In 2010, he said, “It’s better to like pretty women than being gay.”

Security

How Does America’s Love Of Guns Measure Up Internationally?


In the wake of the tragic events in Newtown, CT, a renewed debate about gun laws is forthcoming in the United States. With that in mind, the following is a look at the top ten gun exporting countries around the world, to see how the United States compares to them in that and other areas related to guns and gun violence. All of these numbers come together to paint a picture of a country with high ownership and production of guns, with high rates of death related to that ownership, and yet some of the laxest laws on the planet when it comes to regulating them.

Top Arms Exporter

When ranked among the top ten arms exporters, the United States is far and away in the lead in terms of sheer output. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States shipped off a total of $6.6 billion worth of arms in 2009, beating the next closest competitor, Russia, by over a billion dollars. Rounding out the list are Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China, Spain, Israel, the Netherlands and Italy.

The data combines both private sales from arms manufacturers and government authorized arms trades between states. For a better look at how the latter looks, and how the United States still outperforms all other countries, Google has an interactive look at where all these guns go.

Most Gun Owners Per Capita

Not only does the United States ship off the most guns in the world, its people own the most guns among the top ten exporters. The Small Arms Survey in 2007 pulled together a database of several countries’ gun ownership per 100 people, and found that an average of 88 guns per 100 people within the U.S. In comparison, the next highest country, France, had only 33 guns for every 100 citizens.

Most Gun Deaths Per 100K People

Rather than looking at the sheer number of deaths caused by firearms in the top ten exporters, a more accurate way to compare them is by gun deaths per 100,000 citizens. In that ranking, for those who break gun deaths out from their annual murder rate, the United States is again at the top of the list, this per the World Health Organization and the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime.

The United States in 2009 had 3 gun deaths for every 100,000 people over the course of the year, completely eclipsing the next nearest country’s rate of .96, coming from Israel, by a wide margin. When you factor in the .243 rate of France, the second-highest gun owning country, the United States’ gun troubles seem even more problematic. Notable in this context, in the aftermath of mass shootings, other countries have tightened their laws accordingly and seen a drop in gun violence.

Second Highest Percentage Of Homicides With a Firearm

One of the few areas related to gun ownership and violence where the United States does not come in at the top among the biggest arms exporters is the percentage of homicides within the country carried out using a firearm. In that statistic, Italy holds the first position, with the United States in second. According to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime and the Organization of American States, 60 percent of the murders in the U.S. in 2009 involved a firearm.

Economy

Austerity Pushes Europe Back Into Recession, As Protests Erupt Across The Continent

Austerity policies meant to turn around the European economy and reduce the debts and deficits of countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Greece continue to have the opposite effect. The continent’s economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter in the three months leading up to September, officially pushing the European economy back into recession. The 0.1 percent contraction marked the fourth consecutive quarter that the European economy either shrank or experienced no growth.

Protesters filled streets in Lisbon, Madrid, Rome, and Athens this week, as austerity policies in all four countries have driven up unemployment and led to social service cuts, while failing to address the economic crisis. The protests have taken a violent turn recently, with protesters setting fire to urban streets and riot police firing back on them. 140 were arrested in Spain, where the unemployment rate has jumped above 25 percent. The economies of other struggling countries also continue to decline:

Portuguese unemployment jumped to a record 15.8 percent while in Spain, one in four of the workforce is jobless.

Greece’s economic output shrank 7.2 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter as the debt-laden country staggers towards its sixth year of depression.

Close to 26 million people are unemployed in the European Union while governments cut spending.

A study recently found that rather than increasing growth and reducing debt, austerity was driving down economic growth and increasing debt levels. Others have shown that austerity has put 116 million Europeans at risk of falling into poverty.

The United States has fared better, largely because it embraced stimulative economic policies instead of rampant budget cutting. But the U.S. is now at risk of following a similar path, as the so-called “fiscal cliff” policies that will slash spending would inflict an even larger austerity package on the American economy than any European country has pursued. This week, 350 economists called on Congress to avoid budget cuts and instead focus on investments into infrastructure and education that would stimulate growth and create jobs.

NEWS FLASH

Italian Soccer Player Fined For Hoping For ‘No Gays’ | The Union of European Football Associations announced today that it would be fining Italian striker Antonio Cassano €15,000 for anti-gay comments he made in advance of the Euro 2012 championships. In response to a question about whether or not there were gay players on the Italy squad, Cassano replied, “I hope there are none. But if there are queers here, that’s their business.” He later said that he regrets that his statements “have sparked controversy and protest from gay rights groups.”

LGBT

European Countries Approaching LGBT Rights At Their Own Paces

While the British government begins accepting public comment on whether to let same-sex couples marry, two legal decisions from elsewhere in Europe today offer an interesting look at how countries are approaching LGBT rights at different paces.

The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that France did not discriminate when it prevented a lesbian couple from both becoming their daughter’s legal parents. The court simply upheld France’s laws, which prevent unmarried couples from adopting together, apparently disregarding the injustice that France does not allow for same-sex marriage. It’s unclear what “human rights” the court stands for, but in this case they did not seem to include family security.

The Italian Supreme Court took a slightly different position when it ruled that a same-sex couple married in another country could not have their marriage legally recognized in Italy. Nevertheless, the court said the two men still had the “right to a family life,” which could open future possibilities for gay rights in that country.

The European Union has been increasingly committed to LGBT rights, but these decisions suggest that it is still leaving room for individual countries to work toward recognizing same-sex families in their own ways.

NEWS FLASH

Catholic Bishop: Italy Should Recognize Same-Sex Couples | Paolo Urso, a Catholic bishop of the Sicilian city of Ragusa, is breaking with the Vatican “to declare that the Italian government should recognize same-sex unions,” UPI is reporting. “When people, even if they’re the same sex, decide to live together, it’s important for the State to recognize this fact,” he was quoted as saying. “But it must be called something different from marriage.” Italy does not currently recognize same-sex unions and last summer Italy’s parliament voted down a bill that would have extended discrimination protections to LGBT people.

Yglesias

Italian Women: Hardly Working

Tyler Cowen offers more thoughts on small firms and pathetic Italian per capita GDP growth. Another neglected element of the story is what I’ve decided I’m going to call Feminist Growth Theory. In the richer countries, including both Big Government Sweden and Small Government America, you have much higher levels of women’s workforce participation:

Southern European countries (and Japan) have a very conservative approach to family structure issues that contrasts sharply with both Anglophone and Nordic norms and depresses output. This is in particular a big deal for public debt issues, since it’s obviously not the case that non-working Italian women are sitting around all day doing nothing. Instead, they’re doing unpaid household work that’s not taxed. Make no mistake, productivity per hour worked in Italy is also low and stagnating compared to the U.S. and Sweden, so it’s not a pure labor supply issue. Still, my suspicion is that even here the failure to take adequate advantage of women’s potential to engage in market production is a major source of productivity stagnation. If you look at the U.S. labor market, maids have low earnings and low productivity. If the median working woman quit her job and went to work as a maid, the economic impact would be immiserating. Having the woman work as an unpaid maid for her husband doesn’t really change the calculus, though of course he eats better under this scenario. I note that in Milan, which is very rich compared to the rest of Italy, there are McDonaldses everywhere.

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