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Economy

Wonk Room’s James Kvaal To Join White House National Economic Council

james1.jpgThe Wonk Room would like to congratulate Center for American Progress Senior Fellow James Kvaal, who is joining the White House’s National Economic Council.

James was one of the founding contributors to The Wonk Room and helped establish this blog’s credibility as a forum for rapid response on policy issues. He has been an insightful and prolific blogger, covering everything from education and health care to taxes and the budget.

Read all of his posts here and check out his work in the Wonk Room’s resource library.

James’ advice, insights, and wit will surely be missed. We wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

Economy

Conservatives Distort Research To Claim They’ll Create 6.2 Million Jobs

Our guest blogger is James Kvaal, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

House Republicans claimed yesterday that their alternative economic recovery plan –- a Bush-like package of tax cuts — would create 6.2 million jobs. As Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) said during a press conference:

We have an analysis by the president’s senior economic adviser who also shows that tax cuts actually provide more immediate relief and more jobs than spending, so you get more — a bigger bang for the buck. Well, using the methods and economic models developed by the president’s top adviser — and when those are applied to our Republican plan, it shows the Republican plan could create as many as 6.2 million jobs over the next two years.

House Republicans proceeded to all vote against President Barack Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. But in claiming support from Obama economic advisor Christina Romer, they misapplied her past work and ignored her more recent and relevant work.

The Republican statement cites a 2007 paper by Romer on the economic benefits of tax cuts. But as noted across the blogosphere, Romer’s conclusion was that the economic environment complicates the assessment of policy changes, not that tax cuts are the most effective way to create jobs:

What Romer and Romer’s study (and their earlier work on monetary policy) shows is not that tax cuts are uniquely effective, but rather that failing to consider the reasons for policy changes leads to underestimates of the effects of all types of stimulus.

A more recent paper Romer coauthored concluded that government investment create more jobs than tax cuts. As this table that Romer and Jared Bernstein compiled shows, government spending has a stronger multiplier effect, and is therefore stronger stimulus:

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As Reagan advisor Martin Feldstein wrote, “While good tax policy can contribute to ending the recession, the heavy lifting will have to be done by increased government spending.” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com recently explained why: though tax cuts act more quickly, they “do not have the same economic bang for the buck as increased government spending, as households will save some of the tax cuts or use them to repay debt, and purchase imported goods.”

Economy

Restoring America’s Academic Competitive Edge

Our guest blogger is James Kvaal, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

America’s prosperity was built partly on its strong schools. For most of the last century, America led the world in educational achievement. Our academic edge drove the United States’ exceptional economic growth and low income inequality, according to Harvard professors Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz.

The rapid increases in schooling were impressive. In only 30 years — between 1910 and 1940 — the number of 18-year-olds with high school diplomas increased from 9 percent to 50 percent. And 30 years later, about half of American students were attending at least some college — leading the world.

But since the 1970s, the U.S. educational system has rested on its laurels, and we are losing ground. Educational achievement among young workers (between the ages of 25 and 34) has slipped to tenth in the world, according to new analysis from the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education.

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In part, that’s because tuition has grown by 439 percent over the past 25 years while family incomes have increased by only 147 percent, according to the Center. More resources are needed to keep tuition low and expand scholarships. The College Board makes a compelling case for financial aid reforms that could help more students earn their college degrees.

But there are broader problems as well. We also need to raise high school graduation rates, which average only about 73 percent by some estimates. Stronger academic preparation is needed, particularly in struggling urban schools. And we need to raise students’ aspirations and help them navigate the complicated college and financial aid systems.

Economy

Reynolds’ Rant

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

In this weekend’s Wall Street Journal, Alan Reynolds accuses us of being lawyers, not economists. We are guilty as charged. But the rest of Reynolds’ rant is wrong.

Reynolds disputes our organization’s estimate that John McCain’s tax plan is worth $3.8 billion to the five largest American oil companies. He claims that we excluded the oil companies’ deductions and credits from our analysis. But we did include deductions. And though we excluded credits — because they are not publicly available — they would have only increased the size of our estimate.

Our estimate is conservative in other ways as well. It used 2007 profits, even though oil companies are breaking all the records this year. It did not count McCain’s big expansion in deductions for business investment. And it did not include oil companies’ foreign profits.

We analyzed 200 companies last spring, and our results have been featured in millions of dollars worth of advertising. None of these companies have disputed our results. In fact, no one did until Reynolds wrote his column three days before the election.

Reynolds gets the big things wrong as well. There is little reason to think corporate taxes put American businesses at a competitive disadvantage. Corporate tax collections are among the lowest in the world because our code is riddled with special interest deductions, credits and exemptions that shield corporate profits from tax. While corporate tax reform is overdue, John McCain’s plan would drive up the deficit, shift the tax burden onto middle-class wages, and harm the economy.

Health

In Search Of An Honest Debate On Health Care

Our guest blogger is James Kvaal, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

How much will Sen. John McCain cut from Medicare and Medicaid to pay for his new tax credits? McCain advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin said that our estimate of $1.3 trillion – based on the work of the Tax Policy Center – is “false.” But he has refused to provide his own number or to endorse any of the independent estimates.

Holtz-Eakin also claimed that he could save “on the order of $2.6 trillion over 10 years” by cutting wasteful Medicare spending, without affecting benefits at all. If that’s true, than Obama’s plan – which costs $1.6 trillion – could provide universal health care coverage while saving $1 trillion.

There are only 10 days until the election. If the McCain campaign successfully avoids all the difficult questions on who, exactly, is paying for its trillions in tax breaks, than no future presidential candidate will have any reason to be honest in their budgeting. And if McCain actually becomes president, then he will have learned that he can put out whatever numbers he wants, or not, and leave all of us guessing about his true policies.

For more on this, read the new analysis released yesterday by the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Health

McCain’s New Health Care Plan Delays the Tax Increase

Our guest blogger is James Kvaal, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

The McCain campaign has altered its health care plan again. The new plan reduces the number of families facing tax increases, but it requires deep cuts in Medicare and Medicaid and still will eventually require most middle-class families to pay higher taxes.

The original McCain plan imposed both income and payroll taxes to health benefits. The campaign never said so explicitly, but its figures for the plan’s budget cost and its impact on a typical family could not be understood any other way.

The plan would raise taxable income by about $13,000 for an average family with health benefits. That’s a hefty tax increase on the middle-class. We estimated that a typical middle-class family making $60,000 would pay $1,100 more in taxes in 2013.

The new McCain plan imposes only income taxes on health benefits, according to figures released over the weekend by McCain aide Douglas Holtz-Eakin. Without higher payroll taxes, fewer families will be socked with higher tax bills but taxpayers must pony up an additional $1.3 trillion. (Igor has more on McCain’s plan to pay for it by cutting Medicare and Medicaid.)

Some families still face an immediate tax increase under McCain’s plan; those with incomes and premiums that are higher than average are most likely to see higher taxes. Some families must pay more in premiums because they have significant health needs or live in a costly area of the country.

A middle-class family paying 25 percent in income taxes and 5 percent in state taxes would pay more under McCain’s plan right away if their premiums are more than $16,700 – which would make it a relatively costly plan but hardly the most expensive out there.

Moreover, more and more families will pay higher taxes over time. That’s because McCain’s tax credit will increase no faster than inflation (about 2 percent a year). In contrast, the new tax on health benefits will increase along with premiums (about 7 percent a year).

By 2014, a middle-class family (who is in the 25 percent tax bracket and pays average premiums) would pay $300 more in taxes. Every following year, the tax hike would get larger. By 2018, it would be more than $1,400.

The original McCain plan featured an unappealing tax increase on middle-class families. The new plan cuts Medicare and Medicaid, but it only delays — rather than eliminating — the tax increase on middle-class families.

Health

Note to CBS News: Yes, McCain’s Health Care Plan Raises Taxes

Our guest bloggers are James Kvaal and Ben Furnas, senior fellow and research associate at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

CBS News took a look at whether John McCain’s health care plan would raise taxes on millions of American families the other night. Watch it:

Here’s what we think is important.

First, the McCain plan will eventually result on higher taxes on most households with health insurance through their jobs.  That’s because the McCain tax credit will grow only with inflation. Current tax benefits grow with premiums, which increase three or four times faster than inflation.

Second, the McCain plan will result in higher taxes for some households right away.  Families with higher incomes and more expensive insurance plans are most likely to get hit by higher taxes.

Third, the full impact of the McCain plan is difficult to calculate because the McCain campaign is trying to have it both ways on a critical question at the heart of his health care plan: whether it imposes payroll taxes (as well as income taxes) on health benefits.

As originally announced, McCain seemed to impose both income and payroll taxes on health benefits.  That would mean that typical middle-class families would pay higher taxes within a year or two.

Now the McCain campaign is apparently saying that they will impose only income taxes on health benefits.  If that’s right, then – as CBS reports – most families will see tax cuts in initially.  However, because the credit would still quickly fall behind premiums, the plan would still increase taxes on most families eventually.  Moreover, McCain’s would cost an additional $1.3 trillion — a massive cost which the McCain campaign has not acknowledged.

Making families pay more for their health care is not some accidental quirk due to the details of the McCain plan.  It is a key part of the conservative ideology to shift costs onto families, which they believe will reduce wasteful health care spending.  But it is more likely to leave families struggling with higher and higher health care costs and forced to skip care they need.

Health

Joe Klein Nails It On McCain’s Health Care Tax Increase

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

At Swampland, Joe Klein posts a great piece on McCain’s plan to raise taxes on many families with health insurance. Joe Biden raised the same issue yesterday, as did a misleading piece in the New York Sun. We wanted to add one more point.

McCain endlessly charges that Obama wants to “raise taxes.” But due to McCain’s health care plan, far more middle-class families will see a tax increase under McCain than under Obama. Consider:

- McCain raise taxes on more people. Obama would raise taxes on about 4 million high-income households, all with incomes above $200,000. McCain would eventually raise taxes on most of the roughly 90 million households with health benefits from their employers. As explained here, the main reason is that McCain’s tax credit is designed to fall further and further behind rising premiums.

- In addition, McCain raises taxes on the middle class. While Obama would only increase taxes on households making more than $200,000 a year, McCain would raise taxes on typical families making $60,000 by $1,100 in 2013.

So remind us again, who wants to raise taxes?

Economy

McCain’s No Maverick Next To Unpredictable Palin

Our guest blogger is James Kvaal, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Gov. Sarah Palin is a strong conservative, but she has an unpredictable streak, sometimes raising taxes or taking on business interests. Calling her a “mother, moose hunter, maverick,” the McCain campaign is trying to use Palin’s record to paint John McCain as a maverick too. But by drawing attention to McCain’s party-line platform, the comparison could backfire.

As mayor, Palin cut property taxes but also raised sales taxes to finance a new recreation center. John McCain once entertained higher tobacco and Social Security taxes, but now promises not to support any tax increases, no matter what.

When she became governor, Palin championed a new windfall profits tax on oil companies, collecting $6 billion last year. She also gave each Alaskan $1200 to help pay for higher energy costs. McCain opposes a bipartisan energy package because it repeals tax subsidies for oil companies and he also opposes a windfall profit tax to fund relief for families.

Palin took on the big oil companies that dominate Alaska’s economy. She rejected her predecessor’s plan for a natural gas pipeline, saying it was too generous to the big oil companies. McCain missed a vote to renegotiate sweetheart oil leases.

Palin has also vetoed hundreds of millions of dollars in spending, including controversial cuts for programs helping teenage mothers. McCain not only claims to be able to eliminate $100 billion in wasteful earmarks, a figure many times higher than the actual amount of earmarks, but on the campaign trail has said he supports particular uses of earmarked money.

John McCain once stood up to industry lobbyists on issues like the patient’s bill of rights, treatment of airline passengers and the sale of the broadcast spectrum. But nowadays he campaigns on corporate tax cuts, the oil industry’s agenda, and the deregulation of health insurance. Whether or not Palin is a maverick, McCain is promising to run his administration like he’s run his campaign: as an orthodox Republican.

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Green

Sarah Palin: A Champion For Big Oil

Our guest bloggers are Daniel J. Weiss, a Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, and James Kvaal, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

sarah.jpgWith the choice of Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) as his running mate, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is not backing down from oil drilling. Palin is a champion for drilling, the Bush-Cheney approach to energy policy that brought us $4.00-per-gallon gasoline and the rising threat of global warming.

Like McCain, Palin believes that oil drilling is the only solution to our energy problems. “I beg to disagree with any candidate who would say we can’t drill our way out of our problem,” she says. She supports more drilling in protected areas of the Outer Continental Shelf and the Alaska Natural Wildlife Refuge, once attacking McCain for his “close-mindedness on ANWR.”

But the Department of Energy believes that offshore drilling “would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.” Moreover, about three-quarters of all the oil in public lands in the continental U.S. are already open to drilling – and yet only one quarter of this oil is under production. Opening the Arctic Refuge would cut gasoline prices by two cents in 17 years. For that, Palin would destroy the home of America’s native polar bears. Not even T. Boone Pickens still thinks we can drill our way out of this crisis.

Palin rejects clean renewable energy that is an alternative to oil. Earlier this month, she claimed that “alternative-energy solutions are far from imminent and would require more than 10 years to develop.”

Alaska has become the “poster state” for the threat of global warming as the climate gets hotter and dryer and sea levels rise. More than 100 towns are vulnerable due to eroding sea lines. Polar bears are threatened by the melting ice floas, and this month bears were spotted swimming as much as 50 miles offshore.

Nonetheless, like many other oil champions, Palin is skeptical of global warming. During her gubernatorial campaign, she said she was unconvinced about how much human emissions contribute to current global warming trends. Palin also opposes listing our polar bears as a threatened species because it could require action on climate change.

As Carl Pope of the Sierra Club says, “No one is closer to the oil industry than Governor Palin.” Sarah Palin has taken positions that would ensure a continuation of the Bush-Cheney energy policies. She supports drilling everywhere and ignores the need for binding reductions in global warming pollution even though her state is melting. The continuation of these policies will continue higher energy costs, more severe hurricanes and droughts, and despoiled natural treasures.

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