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Security

Biden Was Right: The Truth About Iran’s Nuclear Program

Jeffrey Goldberg.

In a column titled “How to Beat Obama on Foreign Policy,” Bloomberg’s Jeffrey Goldberg rips into Vice President Biden’s comments on the Iranian nuclear issue during the recent vice presidential debate, claiming Biden handed Mitt Romney a “gift” by allegedly “downplay[ing] the importance of confronting Iran” and that Biden’s remarks on Iran during the debate were “technically inaccurate.” Goldberg often writes insightfully on the issue, but his critique of Biden misses the mark: the Vice President’s remarks were an accurate summation of the state of affairs with respect to Iran’s nuclear program.

Goldberg is skeptical of Biden’s claim that “we’ll know if [Iran] start[s] the process of building a weapon.” Goldberg’s central complaint is with Biden’s claim that “[b]oth the Israelis and we know — we’ll know if they start the process of building a weapon. So all this bluster I keep hearing, all this loose talk — what are they talking about?” Biden’s point is a basic one: Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 19.75 percent U-235, but a nuclear weapon requires 90 percent levels. Moving from 20 to 90 percent takes work and, moreover, would then require warheads and delivery systems Iran currently lacks to make full nuclear missiles.

Goldberg worries the United States, Israel, and other allies would not be able to track Iran’s progress in enriching uranium to the purity needed for a nuclear weapon and quotes non proliferation expert David Albright saying, “You only need a very small facility [to make weapons]. It poses a greater challenge for intelligence gathering.” But a recent report, which Albright coauthored, highlights the difficulty for Iran to “breakout” and enrich to 90 percent levels for weapons without getting caught, and so it wouldn’t in the near term:

Although Iran’s breakout times are shortening, an Iranian breakout in the next year could not escape detection by the IAEA or the United States. Furthermore, the United States and its allies maintain the ability to respond forcefully to any Iranian decision to break out. During the next year or so, breakout times at Natanz and Fordow appear long enough to make an Iranian decision to break out risky. Therefore, ISIS assesses that Iran is unlikely to break out at Natanz or at Fordow in the near term, barring unforeseen developments such as a pre-emptive military strike.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors also routinely inspect Iran’s nuclear facilities, which would make it very hard for Iran to leap towards a bomb without getting caught red-handed — a key point which was highlighted at a recent CAP event on U.S.-Israeli cooperation on Iran.

Though Goldberg suggests Biden’s comment was a “dramatic…deviation from the administration’s line on Iran,” the Vice President was merely reiterating what Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has said on multiple occasions. Speaking in March, Panetta said it would take Iran between two and three years to attach a bomb to a missile: “the consensus is that, if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon.” Panetta went further in September saying the U.S. would know if Iran moved to weaponization. “It’s roughly about a year right now. A little more than a year. And so, we think we will have the opportunity once we know that they’ve made that decision, take the action necessary to stop (the program),” he said.

Panetta’s point about Iran’s “decision” is a crucial one — American and Israeli intelligence agree that Iran has not yet decided to go down these definitive steps towards a bomb. Though Goldberg suggests our intelligence is sketchy, citing the failure to anticipate 9/11 or the Benghazi attack, the comparison is a facile one. Iran is “the most watched country on earth,” with multiple international intelligence agencies keeping a close eye on its nuclear progress. Contrast that with anticipating attacks by amorphous terrorist organizations scattered around the world.

President Obama has routinely said that preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, not containing one, is the policy of his administration and that “all options are on the table” to achieve this end, including military force. The Administration does, however, think diplomacy is the “best and most permanent way to resolve the crisis,” a point worth emphasizing given the consequences of a strike.

Election

Fox News Psychiatrist: Biden Either Has Dementia Or Was Drunk During The Debate

Fox News’ Medical A-Team delved into psychoanalysis of the vice presidential debate on Sunday, speculating that Vice President Joe Biden was either demented or drunk during his performance. Fox regular Dr. Keith Ablow declared, “from a physicianly perspective,” that Biden’s energetic demeanor suggested dementia. When another member of the A-Team pointed out that Biden actually had strong command of the statistics and facts, Ablow suggested instead that “you’d want his alcohol level”:

I did not evaluate Joe Biden, but if someone said to me, we want you to do what’s really required to know what happened there, you have to put dementia on the differential diagnosis. You have to say, bizarre laughter, interrupting. If this were your dad or your grandfather, wouldn’t you say if you brought him to me, Keith, you’ve got to tell me, is he suffering with dementia? Because he can’t seem to listen, he’s laughing inappropriately.
[...]
I’m not diagnosing him. I haven’t evaluated him, but psychological testing is anybody’s guess what it would show. Not knowing every fact isn’t required to diagnose dementia and I’m not saying he has it. I’m saying you put it on the differential. Impulsivity, that’s part of it, and command of the facts…I’m speaking as a psychiatrist today, you didn’t call me in as a political strategist. So, you’d want his alcohol level. Why? Because he was that bizarre.

Watch it:

As the Fox News A-Team is well aware, Biden is a strict teetotaler whose family has struggled with alcoholism. Ablow’s quack psychiatry has also led him to claim Newt Gingrich’s three marriages would make him a better president. Even Fox News’ Megyn Kelly attacked the doctor over his claim that a transgender Dancing With The Stars contestant would make children uncomfortable with their genders.

As fringe as he is, Ablow is hardly the only conservative offering outlandish theories to negate Biden’s strong debate performance. Mike Huckabee, also on Fox News, claimed Biden acted like “an obnoxious drunk,” while Sean Hannity suggested Biden had sampled bourbon before going onstage.

Climate Progress

Joe Biden Slams Paul Ryan For His Past Support Of The Clean Energy Stimulus

Vice President Joe Biden didn’t hold back his disbelief in last night’s debate against his Republican challenger, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

Calling Ryan’s comments “malarkey,” Biden smiled incredulously, shook his head, and interrupted with rebuttals throughout the night.

Energy didn’t get much play in the debate. But when the topic did come up, it gave Biden a strong opportunity to hit back on Ryan’s claims about the clean energy stimulus. After Ryan called the stimulus “corporate welfare” for clean energy companies, Biden reminded the audience that his opponent secured more than $20 million in stimulus grants for energy efficiency and transportation companies in his Wisconsin district in 2009 — even while calling it “wasteful” in public:

BIDEN: And I love my friend here. I — I’m not allowed to show letters but go on our website, he sent me two letters saying, “By the way, can you send me some stimulus money for companies here in the state of Wisconsin?” We sent millions of dollars. You know…

RADDATZ: You did ask for stimulus money, correct?

BIDEN: Sure he did. By the way…

RYAN: On two occasions we — we — we advocated for constituents who were applying for grants. That’s what we do. We do that for all constituents who are…

(CROSSTALK) BIDEN: I love that. I love that. This was such a bad program and he writes me a letter saying — writes the Department of Energy a letter saying, “The reason we need this stimulus, it will create growth and jobs.” His words. And now he’s sitting here looking at me.

After Ryan’s letters requesting the funds were released, he told a local news station in an interview that “I never asked for stimulus.” A day later, he walked the statement back.

Ryan was not alone, however. He joined at least 62 Congressional Republicans who actively lobbied the government for loan guarantees and grants for clean energy companies in their districts — even while many of them publicly railed against the stimulus program that provided a boost to local companies and organizations around the country.

According to the Department of Energy, the loan guarantee programs created or saved over 60,000 jobs and the 1603 grant program supported up to 75,000 jobs, stimulating tens of billions of dollars in private-sector activity.

Biden also hit back against Ryan’s claims that the $90 billion invested through the stimulus for clean energy, public transportation, clean coal, and energy efficiency resulted in criminal activity — a completely false charge that has been backed up by a year of Congressional investigations.

Read more

Politics

Huckabee Says Biden Acted Like ‘An Obnoxious Drunk’ At Debate

In an apparent attempt to downplay Joe Biden’s energetic performance at last night’s debate, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee compared the Vice President to someone drunk at a cocktail party.

On Fox News, Huckabee claimed that Biden, who has has openly discussed his family’s problems with alcoholism and is himself a teetotaler, “came across like a guy you meet at a cocktail party or some political event, an obnoxious drunk who’s loud and boisterous and interrupts every conversation… He just is the kind of guy you want to get away from as quickly as you can and go find someone else to talk to. It was just boorish behavior for the first half.” Watch it:

Politics

ThinkProgress Liveblogs The Vice Presidential Debate

Welcome to ThinkProgress’ live coverage of the vice presidential debate, hosted by Centre College, in Danville, Kentucky.

We’ll fact-check both candidates’ claims in real time and offer a wide range of multimedia content. Tonight’s debate is moderated by Martha Raddatz, Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent for ABC News.

LATEST UPDATE
10:53 pm

Watch Our Google Hangout

Watch ThinkProgress’ Ian Millhiser discuss the ins and outs of the VP debate along with the staff of Roll Call, Christian Science Monitor, and Reason:

10:41 pm

Biden's 'malarkey' tops Google search

On CNN, Soledad O’Brien reported that “malarkey” became a top search on Google after the vice president used the word during the debate.

10:40 pm

Even conservatives think Biden did well

10:31 pm

Ryan's budget guts social programs for lower-income Americans

Biden just brought up the fact that Ryan’s budget really hurts low-income people. Sixty two percent of the cuts are from programs that benefit low-income people.

10:27 pm

Catholic leaders have denounced Ryan's policies

Ryan’s policies have been widely criticized by Catholic scholars, nuns, and bishops. The Nuns on the Bus, who have traveled around the country to advocate for economic justice, have denounced Ryan’s budget as “immoral and unjustifiable” because it “will be putting the burden on the poor.”

Read the full live blog

Climate Progress

Obama Talks (And Tweets) Climate Change. Will Biden Tonight?

On Tuesday, President Obama tweeted out a short version of his convention comments on climate to his 20 million twitter followers.

Today, Obama added a slightly tweaked version of his convention riff to his stump speech at his University of Miami speech in Coral Gables (full video here):

Yes my plan will reduce the carbon pollution that is heating the planet.  Because climate change is not a hoax.  More drought and floods and hurricanes and wildfires, that’s not a joke.  That’s a threat to our children’s future.  And we can do something about it.

And yes, as semi-delighted as I am that the president is talking about climate change (at least to university audiences), I really wish he would stop repeating the “hoax” myth in trying to debunk it. So let’s call this “modified rapture.”

Will Biden bring up this issue in tonight’s debate even if the moderator does not? He will if he looks at the polls and public opinion analysis (see Krosnick: Candidates “May Actually Enhance Turnout As Well As Attract Voters Over To Their Side By Discussing Climate Change”).

LGBT

The VP Candidates’ Stark Differences On LGBT Issues

Biden and RyanAs Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan meet in Danville, Kentucky tonight for their lone head-to-head debate, millions of LGBT Americans are celebrating National Coming Out Day. While it is unclear whether issues relating to equality will be among the topics discussed tonight, it is worth remembering that Biden and Romney have starkly different views on LGBT civil rights.

Here’s where they stand:

Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Marriage Ryan is a fierce opponent of granting any legal rights to same-sex couples. Ryan twice voted for a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage. He supported a same-sex marriage ban in his home state, and claimed that preventing same-sex couples from getting married was a “universal human value.” He even voted to prevent any funds being used to implement or enforce a domestic partnership benefits law passed by the DC City Council to give health care benefits to same-sex couples and voted for a 1999 amendment that would have overruled the District of Columbia’s elected city council and prohibited any funding for the “joint adoption of a child between individuals who are not related by blood or marriage.” Biden supports marriage equality. In May, he explained on Meet the Press “I am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women and heterosexual men marrying women are entitled to the same exact rights. All the civil rights, all the civil liberties. And quite frankly I don’t see much of a distinction beyond that.”
DADT Ryan voted against the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, the policy which prevented gays and lesbians from serving openly in the armed forces. Biden campaigned for repeal of the policy. He was one of just 33 Senators in 1993 supporting a resolution against codifying the discriminatory policy.
Hate Crimes Ryan voted against hate crime protection for LGBT Americans. Biden co-sponsored and supported hate crimes protections for LGBT Americans.
ENDA Ryan believes that employment discrimination protection for LGBT people should be left out of the hands of the federal government. While he did (after much hand-wringing) once vote for the Employment Non-Discrimination Act in 2007, the fact his congressional office employment policies do not include protections for sexual orientation is worrying enough. Saying that it “changes the equation,” Paul Ryan indicated his support for gay and lesbian discrimination protection would diminish if it also included for transgender employees. “It makes it something you can’t vote for,” he said. Biden voted for the Employment Non-Discrimination Act in the Senate in 1996 and co-sponsored the 2003 version of the bill.

Earlier this month, Ryan told Focus on the Family president Jim Daly that if elected he and Mitt Romney “will protect traditional marriage and the rule of law and we will provide the Defense of Marriage Act the proper defense in the courts that it deserves.” Obama and Biden have a section on the White House website highlighting their support for LGBT civil rights.

Watch Biden’s It Gets Better video:

Election

What Everyone Needs To Know Before Watching The VP Debate

1. Romney and Ryan would eliminate health care for 31 million people who are poor or disabled. Medicaid, which helps poor Americans, some seniors, and children afford health care, is right in the crosshairs of Paul Ryan’s House budget. He proposed cutting $1.4 trillion from the program, a move that would kick about 11 million people off Medicaid over the course of ten years. The Romney-Ryan plan is even worse, and is estimated to force about 44 million people off the program.

2. Ryan considers Social Security a “Ponzi Scheme.” In the Fall of 2011, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) called Social Security a “Ponzi scheme,” and Paul Ryan agreed. Ryan wants to privatize the program.

3. 62% of Ryan’s budget cuts come from programs that benefit low-income Americans. Ryan’s budget proposes “$5.3 trillion in nondefense budget cuts.” 62 percent of the reductions would come from programs that specifically help low-income Americans:

4. Ryan voted for future defense cuts he now blames on Obama. Though Ryan claims Obama somehow orchestrated the sequester, a series of across-the-board spending cuts triggered if Congress can’t produce a better plan, the VP pick himself was a supporter of the mechanism. Not only did he vote for legislation to establish it, he peddled the plan to his Republican colleagues and proposed a similar initiative in 2004.

5. Ryan and Romney cannot cut taxes across the board by 20% and lower the deficit because it’s mathematically impossible. Ryan claims they will achieve these twin goals by closing loopholes and getting rid of deductions for the rich. But, as the Tax Policy Center points out, even if they got rid of every single deduction and loophole, they would still need to find more revenue. That means they’d need to start raising taxes on the middle class.

6. Ryan voted to increase the debt ceiling by $4 trillion under Bush. During the Bush years alone, Ryan voted with his party’s leadership to increase the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. In total, he has voted six times to raise the debt ceiling, increasing it by $5.8 trillion.

7. Ryan wants to kick 1 million students off of Pell Grants. As part of his budget, Ryan proposed cutting Pell Grants for nearly 1 million college students. Seventy four percent of Pell Grant recipients in 2011 came from families with incomes of $30,000 or less. There is no evidence that these cuts will curb rising college costs.

8. Ryan’s budget included the same $716 billion in Medicare savings included in Obamacare. The $716 billion that Obamacare takes out of Medicare will almost definitely come up in tomorrow’s debate. Ryan has claimed that Obama “raided” Medicare to pay for his health care reform. In fact, Ryan wants to make Medicare a voucher program and proposed taking the same cuts out of Medicare in his budget. But whereas Obamacare uses those funds to eliminate fraud and increase efficiency, Ryan proposed taking that money to pay down the deficit.

9. Ryan supported economic stimulus under Bush. If he’s going to follow the lead of his running mate, Ryan will invoke Obama’s stimulus plan, the Recovery Act, as failed legislation that wasted taxpayer money. But when George Bush was president, Ryan was supportive of a stimulus, and actually made a rousing case for infusing the economy with money, saying that it helped create jobs. Watch it:

10. Ryan used to supports a key aspect of Obamacare. Ryan will likely say at the debate that the Affordable Care Act is government overreach. In fact, he might even invoke “death panels,” as he has done at recent town halls. But Ryan proposed something extremely similar to these so-called “death panels” in 2009 — twice. In December of 2010, Ryan also asked the Department of Health and Human Services for an Obamacare health care grant “for the Kenosha Community Health Center, Inc to develop a new facility in Racine, Wisconsin, an area within Ryan’s district.”

11. Ryan opposes abortion access for rape victims. When it comes to abortion rights, Ryan is among the most extreme anti-abortion members of Congress. He believes rape victims shouldn’t have access to abortions and co-sponsored a “personhood” amendment that would have defined a fertilized egg as a human, thus outlawing not just abortion but also in-vitro fertilization and some forms of contraception.

12. Ryan supports a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage. Ryan is vehemently opposed to marriage equality for same-sex couples. He has twice voted to amend the constitution to that effect, supported a same-sex marriage ban in his home state, and claimed that preventing same-sex couples from getting married was a “universal human value.”

Economy

Nuns On A Bus Invite Presidential Tickets To Ohio To Talk Poverty, But Neither Has Accepted

The Nuns On A Bus tour is back, as the social justice lobbying group behind the tour that crisscrossed nine states this summer announced that it will resume next week with a 1,000-mile trip through Ohio. And this time, the nuns, who have highlighted the plight of the poor and how budget cuts would affect them, have invited both presidential tickets to join them.

Thus far, though, neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney has answered the invitations, which have been outstanding since Sister Simone Campbell, executive director of the Catholic social justice lobby NETWORK, issued them in August. The nuns want Obama, Romney, Vice President Joe Biden, and GOP VP nominee Paul Ryan to join them in Cincinnati next Wednesday to hear about the struggles of America’s poorest citizens, and to learn about how budget cuts to different programs would make their lives even harder.

“My goal would be Governor Romney, President Obama, Congressman Ryan, Vice President Biden,” Campbell told ThinkProgress during a tour stop in New York City last week. “Let’s get all four of them there. Let’s have them listen to the people of our country.”

15 percent of Americans live in poverty, and the number has risen significantly since the beginning of the Great Recession. Recent studies have highlighted the lack of economic mobility and educational access available to lower-income Americans, and still the topic has been largely ignored during the presidential campaign.

Poverty wasn’t mentioned a single time in last night’s first presidential debate in Denver.

“It’s not getting talked about enough,” Campbell said. “I was able to tell President Obama that I was grateful that he mentioned poverty in his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention. I don’t think he’s ever said that word. So it’s beginning to get some traction. But the fact is, people are struggling.”

That Romney and Ryan don’t want to accept the invitation might not be shocking, given that the message of the nuns’ tour has been largely aimed at the cuts to assistance programs like Medicaid and food stamps Ryan wrote into the House GOP budget, which Romney supports.

While they haven’t been as explicit about poverty as the nuns, Obama and Biden have been critical of the cuts contained in Ryan’s budget, and they jumped on Romney’s recent comments that he’ll “never convince” people who use government benefits “that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.” And yet, neither Obama nor Biden has committed to joining the nuns to listen to the people they are defending.

Media

10 Totally Fake Stories Bannered By Drudge This Year

Matt Drudge continues to capture the attention of the polical media “because of his brand recognition and, in 2012, because he has a direct line to the Romney campaign.”

But Drudge has used this position to continually mislead the public and the media. Tuesday night’s “bombshell” was just one of many recent examples. Here are 10 completely fake banner stories by Drudge in 2012:

1. Obama proposed to “repeat” auto bailout for every industry in America

Obama just didn’t say that. He said he wanted to bring back manufacturing jobs to every industry. You can read the transcript.

2. Obama “admits fabricating” his girlfriend in his memoir

As the Atlantic reported: “Obama is clear at the start of the book that certain characters are composites, writing, ‘For the sake of compression, some of the characters that appear are composites of people I’ve known, and some events appear out of precise chronology.’”

3. New evidence that Obama was “born in Kenya”

It was actually just an error in a pamphlet produced by his literary agent’s assistant.

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