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Justice

Supreme Court Draws Fourth Amendment Line At Drug-Sniffing Dogs At Your Door

In the moments before the U.S. Supreme Court began its historic oral arguments in the challenge to California’s same-sex marriage ban, the court issued its decision in a case with very different but important constitutional implications.

In a 5-4 decision in which the justices split along unusual lines, the court led by Justice Antonin Scalia held that police sniffing around for drug activity cannot bring their drug dog to the front door of a private home without probable cause – usually a warrant. The case is the second in two years to affirm traditional property-based limits on government invasions of privacy, although in very different contexts.

In this case, detectives who received a tip that the defendant was growing marijuana in his home walked up to his front door with a drug dog by their side, and used the signals from the dog as the basis to obtain a search warrant and enter the suspect’s home. The crux of the justices’ disagreement comes down to whether Detective Bartlett’s chocolate labrador, Franky, was just another dog entitled to wander up to someone’s home, or whether his special olfactory skills and training made him more analogous to a pair of high-powered binoculars. Justice Elena Kagan explains in her concurrence:

As this Court discussed earlier this Term, drug-detection dogs are highly trained tools of law enforcement, geared to respond in distinctive ways to specific scents so as to convey clear and reliable information to their human partners.  They are to the poodle down the street as high-powered binoculars are to a piece of plain glass. Like the binoculars, a drug-detection dog is a specialized device for discovering objects not in plain view (or plain smell). And as in the hypothetical above, that device was aimed here at a home—the most private and inviolate (or so we expect) of all the places and things the Fourth Amendment protects. Was this activity a trespass? Yes, as the Court holds today. Was it also an invasion of privacy? Yes, that as well.

Not so, said the dissenters, led by Justice Samuel Alito. Alito reasons that a dog’s sniffing skills have been used for centuries, and that if there were really a distinction to be made concerning drug-sniffing dogs, that case would have come up already. The dissenters – three conservatives with Justice Breyer as an unusual ally – also reject the reasoning by the concurring Justices Kagan, Sotomayor and Ginsburg that analogizes the drug dog case to the landmark Kyllo decision, in which the court rejected the use of thermal imaging technology to monitor a home. That case was about new technology, they said, and this case is about old tactics.

But whether using new or old technology, the nature of the surveillance by police is relatively new. Drug dogs are among the many tools of the 40-year-old drug war, and in the latest expansion of their use, we are seeing them creep into public schools. Last year’s case invalidating warrantless GPS monitoring, decided on similar grounds, was also a case about drugs. And many of the millions of newly aggressive stop-and-frisks by the New York Police Department resulted in arrests for nothing more than possession of small amounts of marijuana. In taking a sober look back at the strategies law enforcers justified at the height of the drug war, the invasiveness of police implementation will be just as important as the tactics themselves in determining both whether they pass Fourth Amendment muster, and whether they are tailored to meet public safety goals.

Climate Progress

Memo To Media: ‘Climate Sensitivity’ Is NOT The Same As Projected Future Warming, World Faces 10°F Rise

The major media continue to sow confusion on one of the central questions of our time: How much warming will we subject our children and countless future generations to?

The answer to that question depends primarily on four factors:

  1. The so-called “equilibrium climate sensitivity” – the sensitivity of the climate to fast feedbacks like sea ice and water vapor. The ECS is how much warming you get if we suddenly adopt a super-aggressive effort to cut carbon pollution and only double CO2 emissions to 560 ppm — and there are no major “slow” feedbacks.  We know the fast feedbacks, like water vapor, are strong by themselves (see Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius” and Skeptical Science piece here).
  2. The actual CO2 concentration level we hit, which on our current emissions path is far, far beyond 550 ppm (see U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: “Recent observations confirm … the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories are being realised” — 1000 ppm).
  3. The real-world slower (decade-scale) feedbacks, such as tundra melt (see “Carbon Feedback From Thawing Permafrost Will Likely Add 0.4°F – 1.5°F To Total Global Warming By 2100“).
  4. Where they live — since people who live in the mid-latitudes (like most Americans) are projected to warm considerably more than the global average.

The media, perhaps aided by some scientists who aren’t great at communications, tend to focus on just #1, a number the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report pegged as “likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values.” While the majority of studies tend to be in the middle of the range, a couple have been near the low end, though some have been at the higher end.

In any case, focusing on the fast-feedback sensitivity perhaps made sense in the distant past when there was some reasonable chance of stabilizing at 560 parts per million atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (double the preindustrial level) and some hope the slow feedbacks might not matter.

Indeed, the scientific community focused on a doubling I think in part because they didn’t believe humanity would be as self-destructive as brainless frogs and ignore the increasingly dire warnings for over two decades now.

As I explained in Nature online back in 2008 (here), once you factor in carbon-cycle feedbacks, even the uber-cautious Fourth Assessment report (AR4) of the IPCC makes clear we are headed toward 1000 ppm (the A1FI scenario). That conclusion has been supported by just about every major independent analysis, including a recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (see Study: We’re Headed To 11°F Warming And Even 7°F Requires “Nearly Quadrupling The Current Rate Of Decarbonisation“). That means it doesn’t matter terribly much whether the ECS is 3C, or, say, only 2.5C.

It is worth noting that while the Thawing Permafrost Could Cause 2.5 Times the Warming of Deforestation (!) and add up to 1.5°F to warming in 2100 by itself, “Participating modeling teams have completed their climate projections in support of the [IPCC's] Fifth Assessment Report, but these projections do not include the permafrost carbon feedback.” D’oh!

Given that the Arctic is already losing ice decades faster than any AR4 model had projected, we should expect that the permafrost will go faster than the models suggest. Indeed a 2008 study by leading tundra experts found “Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss.” The study’s ominous conclusion:

We find that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during rapid sea ice loss are 3.5 times greater than secular 21st century climate-change trends. The accelerated warming signal penetrates up to 1500 km inland….

Anyone who tells you the recent literature suggests things will be better than we thought, hasn’t read the recent literature. In a 2010 AAAS presentation, the late William R. Freudenburg of UC Santa Barbara discussed his research on “the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge“: New scientific findings since the 2007 IPCC report are found to be more than twenty times as likely to indicate that global climate disruption is “worse than previously expected,” rather than “not as bad as previously expected.”

Figure 7.

“Projections of global warming relative to pre-industrial for the A1FI emissions scenario” — the one we’re currently on. “Dark shading shows the mean ±1 s.d. [standard deviation] for the tunings to 19 AR4 GCMs [IPCC Fourth Assessment General Circulation Models] and the light shading shows the change in the uncertainty range when … climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks … are included.

Again, we are headed to 11F and just keeping to 7F will take a major effort. But warming beyond 7F is “incompatible with organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e.  4°C [7F] would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level,” as climate expert Kevin Anderson explains here.

Everyone interested in what we face should should read the recent World Bank Climate Report, which concluded, “A 4°C [7°F] world can, and must, be avoided” to avert “devastating” impacts. Also worth reading is the Royal Society Special Issue on Global Warming, which details the “hellish vision” of 7°F (4°C) world (and is the source of the figure above). The concluding piece in the issue notes soberly:

Read more

Politics

Missouri Republicans Embrace Birtherism, Pass Bill Requiring Proof Of Citizenship

Missouri State Representative Lyle Rowland (R)

Missouri House Republicans today passed a so-called birther bill, which would require all presidential and vice presidential candidates to provide proof of citizenship to the state before they were allowed to appear on the ballot.

HB 1046 was introduced by state Rep. Lyle Rowland (R). He explained why he felt the bill was necessary to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Rowland, a Republican from Cedarcreek, said he sponsored the bill because he doesn’t think there is enough vetting in the current process, which primarily relies on political parties to verify whether candidates meet all requirements.

“This would just provide us with the verifying evidence,” Rowland said.

Rowland and other Republicans deny that the bill is in response to charges that President Obama is not a citizen, but state Democrats are unconvinced, calling the timing questionable. “There is a large amount of people out there who don’t think our president if a U.S. citizen,” said Rep. Jacob Hummel (D).

Under the bill, “verifying evidence” of citizenship includes a copy of a candidate’s birth certificate, which President Obama released months ago. It’s unclear whether a campaign would be able to provide a copy in coffee mug format.

Missouri is one of several states that has flirted with the idea of a birther bill, but would be the first to enact if, if it passes. Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma have all considered their own versions, and in Arizona, a bill made it all the way to Gov. Jan Brewer’s (R) desk before she vetoed it.

NEWS FLASH

Florida GOP Measure Will Kick 600,000 Poor Children Off Of Medicaid | Florida’s GOP-led legislature pushed a measure last year that requires Medicaid recipients, regardless of age or income, to pay a $10 premium for benefits. But a new report from Georgetown University’s Health Policy Institute finds that the legislation may force 800,000 Floridians — 660,000 of whom are likely children — out of the program. “This represents nearly half (45 percent) of the children and parents currently covered,” the report said. The Florida Independent notes that a one-parent, two-child family that earns $11,00 a year would pay $360 a year for Medicaid, or 3 percent of their income. While states can charge a premium for those in higher income brackets, no state currently charges a flat premium across the board. Florida’s measure is thus likely “the most far-reaching to date.” Despite this disastrous consequence, Florida’s epically unpopular Gov. Rick Scott (R) is still blaming Medicaid for the state budget woes.

NEWS FLASH

McConnell Admits To Taking Debt Ceiling ‘Hostage’: It’s ‘Worth Ransoming’ | In a stunning bit of candor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) admitted in the Washington Post today that his party had taken the debt ceiling “hostage,” and that some of his colleagues were willing to “shoot[]” it:

I think some of our members may have thought the default issue was a hostage you might take a chance at shooting,” he said. “Most of us didn’t think that. What we did learn is this — it’s a hostage that’s worth ransoming. And it focuses the Congress on something that must be done.”

The Post added that McConnell “said he could imagine doing this again.” Indeed, he has promised he will do so. (HT: Taegan Goddard)

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