Last week’s victories in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington are the latest signifiers that support continues to grow for marriage equality. But recent data suggest that the trend is not consistent across all geographical regions and communities, including some interesting results from those states.

Pew Research Center conducted a poll on same-sex marriage just two weeks before the election, its third reading on the issue this year. Marriage equality hit the highest favor (49 percent) and lowest opposition (40 percent) that Pew has ever recorded, just the latest in what Pew describes as the “steep recent trend” toward support. Still, there are big regional divides, with 62 percent favor in New England and 57 percent favor in the mid-Atlantic compared to a more even split in the Midwest (46-44 in favor) and continued opposition in the South (56-35 against) and the South Atlantic (48-42 against). Still, the trend toward support is evident across all regions — the South just happens to be about 10 years behind the rest of the country.

Pew also found that support continues to grow among black Americans, at higher rates over 2012 than among whites. Still, the black community is more closely divided with 44 percent in favor, 39 opposed, and 17 percent unsure. Hispanic voters are less divided, with 59 percent supporting the freedom to marry and only 32 percent opposed.

Within the states where votes were held, other interesting dynamics are apparent. For example, in Maryland, two prominent Republican strongholds voted for Mitt Romney for president but also approved same-sex marriage, or voted for same-sex marriage at higher rates than for Romney. By contrast, newly elected Democrats in Minnesota are unsure whether they could support marriage equality efforts because constituents in their districts also voted for the referendum to ban recognition of such unions. This reflects how the trend toward equality has not advanced as quickly in the Midwest as it has on the east coast.

The National Organization for Marriage has claimed since last week that there is no such trend, but that is delusional thinking. Steve Schmidt, who advised the presidential campaigns of John McCain and George W. Bush, acknowledged this, asking on behalf of the Republican Party, “Why should we sign a suicide pact with the National Organization for Marriage?” Still, NOM may try to capitalize on the weak points in the polling, targeting vulnerable areas of the country where support is lower and continuing to attempt its nefarious race-wedging strategies.

The Catholic Church’s “Marriage Unique for a Reason” page has posted a round-up of various bishops’ disappointed reactions to the marriage equality victories in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington this week. The Church was one of the single biggest funders of the anti-equality campaigns and a partner in all four states. These reactions reveal how Church leaders continue to condemn homosexuality and ostracize same-sex families while simultaneously claiming not to discriminate. As Cardinal Dolan indicated this week, they remain committed to fighting equality moving forward:

Bishop Richard Malone (formerly of Portland, Maine): “I trust that those who voted for such a radical change did so out of concern for our brothers and sisters who struggle with same-sex attraction.”

Archibishop William Lori (Baltimore, Maryland): “[We need to] redouble our efforts to defend marriage, to preach about what marriage is, and to help people understand it as a unique relationship that does not discriminate against anyone, but is for the good of children and for the good of society.

Maryland Catholic Conference: “The ballot language they encountered masked the fact that this law does not simply assign civil benefits to gay and lesbian couples, but drastically dismantles in our state law the fundamental family unit of mother, father and child.”

Minnesota Catholic Conference: “Our position on the amendment was never ‘anti’ anyone, but ‘for’ marriage. We continue to emphasize that everyone, including those with same-sex attraction, must be treated with charity, dignity, and respect.”

Archdiocese of St. Paul/Minneapolis: “The Church’s public advocacy of support for the Minnesota Marriage Protection Amendment has always been rooted in our commitment to advance the common good for human society. [...] We will continue to work to strengthen marriage, and defend it against all forms of its weakening, for the good of all society.”

Archbishop J. Peter Sartain (Seattle, Washington): “I am disappointed that so many voters failed to recognize marriage between a man and a woman as the natural institution for the permanent, faithful covenant of love for a couple, for bringing children into the world, and for nurturing and educating those children. This change in civil law is not in the best interest of children or society.”

Though the Catholic Church strives to create a society where same-sex couples simply do not exist, they will increasingly have to co-exist with a nation that recognizes and welcomes these families into its communities.

With Tuesday’s sweeping pro-LGBT victories in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington state, marriage equality will be the law of the land in eight or nine states and the District of Columbia. Another five states have civil unions laws. The National Organization for Marriage, along with other anti-equality organizations, have lost their principal talking point and can no longer claim that every time voters considered marriage, equality loses — so it seems likely the number of states recognizing same-sex couples will continue to climb in the upcoming year.

Here are some states that could consider the issue in the near future:

1. Colorado: While a 2006 constitutional amendment prevents the state legislature from enacting marriage equality, a civil unions bill was only defeated this year thanks to stunning maneuvers by Colorado Speaker of the House Frank McNulty (R) to thwart the majority in his chamber. McNulty lost his majority Tuesday and his likely successor as Speaker, openly gay Rep. Mark Ferrandino (D), is the bill’s chief backer. Polling shows 70 percent of Coloradans support legal recognition for same-sex couples, so movement on this appears likely in 2013.

2. Minnesota: Not only did Minnesota voters defeat a proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex unions Tuesday, they also flipped control of both the state House of Representatives and Senate. The Republican majorities who pushed the marriage inequality amendment onto the ballots will be replaced by a new Democratic majority in each chamber. With Gov. Mark Dayton (D) a strong supporter of marriage equality and a clear popular mandate for marriage equality evident from the amendment vote, Minnesota could also potentially move on this in 2013.

3. Rhode Island: With Tuesday’s victory in Maine, Rhode Island is now the only state in New England without marriage equality. With polling showing more than 56 percent of voters in the Ocean State favoring full marriage equality — instead of the state’s existing weak civil unions law — openly gay state Speaker of the House Gordon Fox (D) has promised to bring up a marriage equality bill next year. Tuesday’s Rhode Island legislative races saw “significant and undeniable gains,” for the pro-marriage-equality side, according to supporters.

4. Illinois: Since Gov. Patrick Quinn (D) backs marriage equality and popular support is surging for moving from civil unions for full marriage, state legislators are pondering a bill for 2013.

5. Delaware: Gov. Jack Markell (D) was re-elected with nearly 70 percent of the vote on Tuesday. He has called the transition from civil unions to marriage equality “inevitable” and expects the legislature to take it up in 2013.

6. Ohio: With poll numbers showing growing support, citizens in Ohio are working to repeal the state’s 2004 marriage inequality amendment and are trying to place an amendment on the ballot in 2013 to replace it with pro-equality language.

7. New Jersey: Though Gov. Chris Christie (R) vetoed a bill to move from civil unions to full marriage equality last February, the state continues to support the idea. Christie has proposed putting the measure up for a vote, though the success of the initiative may depend on the 2013 New Jersey gubernatorial and legislature election results.

With the Supreme Court set to consider whether to take up the Proposition 8 case in California later this month, the citizens of the nation’s most populous state could also once see marriage equality in the near future. The high court is also expected to decide on a challenge to the unconstitutional Defense of Marriage Act, which could create new protections for all same-sex couples across the country.

Despite the best efforts of anti-equality groups to defeat President Obama and an array of pro-marriage equality Democrats, Tuesday’s results show that the American electorate will no longer be fooled by the gay-baiting homophobic attacks that obstructed progress on this issue for the past two decades.

Minnesota Vikings punter Chris Kluwe emerged somewhat abruptly this year as a passionate advocate for marriage equality, particularly because of his colorful response when a Maryland legislator tried to tell Brendon Ayanbadejo of the Baltimore Ravens to keep his LGBT support to himself. Following the explosion of public interest, Kluwe applied his notoriety to campaigning against Minnesota’s marriage inequality amendment, including recording a memorable radio ad. Commemorating the victories in Maryland, Maine, and Minnesota and the likely victory in Washington, Kluwe shared some reflections today at Slate.com:

Together, we made a statement that America is tired of division. America is tired of discrimination, of exclusion, and of unthinking oppression—the belief that people have to live their lives according to someone else’s views rather than their own free will.

Together, we made sure that the world our children will grow up in is one step closer to tolerance, love, and equality; a world where our children can make their own choices instead of being shackled to dusty hate from the past.

Together, we showed this nation that a polity functions best when it includes all of its citizens, when it celebrates their differences as part of one glorious whole, when it synthesizes a wide assortment of cultures and beliefs under the guiding principles of freedom and happiness for everyone.

Together, we can approach the work still at hand. We can face the continuous fight for equality that every society must wage each generation. We may not know the specifics until they’re upon us, but the underlying foundation is always the same—living your own life vs. someone else making your choices for you.

Together, we can promote free will over oppression. We can treat others the way we want to be treated, with dignity and respect. We can work together to find common ground, despite our differences, and build a stable, nurturing society.

It’s no secret that the LGBT community depends on friends, family members, and other allies to support progress towards equality. Kluwe may be brazen at times, but he is a shining example of what an ally looks like and what it truly means to love and respect LGBT people.

In no uncertain terms, this year’s election was a sweeping mandate on LGBT equality. Forgotten is 2008′s bittersweet realization that though Barack Obama had won, California’s Proposition 8 had passed. Instead, this election’s returns show a new America poised to move forward and ensure that sexual orientation and gender identity are never barriers to freedom and security. Here’s a glimpse of just how sweeping the victory is for the LGBT community:

Maine

Maine’s voters have approved marriage equality with 53 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed, a complete reversal of the 2009 people’s veto of the very same law. Victory in Maine demonstrates the incredible power of personally connecting with voters, as advocates spent everyday since the 2009 loss canvassing to reach out. It is a significant milestone, because it is the first state to extend the freedom to marry entirely through a grassroots effort: voters brought forth a petition and then voters approved it. Conservatives cannot point to judges or lawmakers and somehow claim that the people did not have a say.

Maryland

Maryland also approved marriage equality by a 52-48 margin, proving that efforts to drive a wedge between the gay and black communities will not succeed. Like in Maine, the people had the opportunity to weigh in, and they weighed in on the side of equality and validating the legislature’s decision to pass same-sex marriage. This is also a significant win for Gov. Martin O’Malley (D), who championed this legislation all year long.

Washington [UPDATED]

UPDATE: As of Wednesday afternoon, victory has been officially declared in Washington for marriage equality!

This morning, Washington’s Referendum 74 is still too close to call, but with the votes coming in so far, it is leading 52-48. Given Washington’s victory in approving everything-but-marriage domestic partnerships in 2009, there is reason to be optimistic that its voters once again sided with equality.

Minnesota

Though Minnesota does not have marriage equality to embrace yet, the 51-48 defeat of its marriage inequality amendment is a significant victory. Opponents have boasted that in every state where voters have the chance to limit marriage to opposite-sex couples, they have done so, and Minnesota breaks that record. In addition, Democrats won control of both chambers of Minnesota’s legislature, ensuring that there will not be future attempts to enshrine discrimination in the constitution anytime soon.

LGBT Candidates

Yesterday was an historic victory for openly LGBT candidates, and the next Congress will break records for its significant out contingent. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) will become the first LGBT member of the Senate. Mark Pocan (D-WI) will fill her House seat, joined by fellow newcomer Sean Patrick Maloney (D) of New York. In addition, Reps. Jared Polis (D-CO) and David Cicilline (D-RI) won re-election. A projected winner remains to be called in the House races for Mark Takano (D-CA) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), but they are both leading in the polls so far and could add to the record-breaking LGBT caucus.

(UPDATE: Mark Tokano has declared victory.)

One out candidate who did not win was Massachusetts Republican Richard Tisei, though this does not necessarily represent a loss for the LGBT community. Incumbent victor John Tierney (D) is a dedicated ally to the LGBT community who does not bear the same risk of further empowering conservatives who would act against equality.
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