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Stories tagged with “Polling

NEWS FLASH

POLL: African-American Marylanders Would Uphold Marriage Equality Law | A new Public Policy Polling poll has found that 55 percent of Maryland’s African-American community would vote to maintain the state’s new marriage equality law if it’s challenged at the ballot in November. They join a 57 percent of all Maryland voters who support the law, up from 52 percent in March. An ABC/Washington Post poll yesterday found that 59 percent of African-Americans nationwide back marriage equality, a rate higher than the national average. Anti-gay groups like the National Organization for Marriage have been fervently trying to drive a wedge between blacks and gays by highlighting black religious leaders who oppose marriage equality, but the narrative they’re spinning simply doesn’t reflect reality.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: Pennsylvania African Americans Support Marriage Equality | A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that African American support for marriage equality has increased dramatically in Pennsylvania. Just last November, the African-American community opposed same-sex marriage with only 34 percent in favor and 52 percent against. Now, in the wake of President Obama’s support on the issue, the polling has shifted to a 42 percent plurality in favor with 41 percent opposed, a 19-point shift. In general, Pennsylvanians are not as supportive, with only 39 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed, but it seems African Americans are leading the momentum toward the inevitability of nationwide marriage equality. As PPP President Dean Debnam points out, “The media’s been asking the wrong question — the big issue isn’t how Obama’s stance will affect his reelection hopes. It’s how Obama’s stance will move public opinion on gay marriage.”

NEWS FLASH

POLL: African American Support For Marriage Equality Is Higher Than General Population | A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds support for marriage equality remaining consistent at 53 percent, with a growing number of African Americans backing the freedom to marry. Fifty-nine percent of black respondents said they want to legalize same-sex marriage and 65 percent favor President Obama’s position on the issue. For the first time, the number of Americans who “strongly” support marriage also (39 percent) outweighs the number who “strongly” oppose it (32 percent).

NEWS FLASH

POLL: 54 Percent Support Legalizing Marriage Equality | A new NBC/WSJ finds that 54 percent would support a law in their state legalizing same-sex marriage, while only 40 percent would oppose such a measure. Polls have consistently shown over the past two years that a majority of Americans favor the freedom to marry, and these results confirm that strong momentum. The poll also assessed the fallout from President Obama’s endorsement of marriage equality and found that it was ultimately a wash. This too signifies incredible progress since 2004, when same-sex marriage was used as a wedge issue to mobilize conservatives.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: Strong Majority Of New Hampshire Voters Support Marriage Equality | A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that support for marriage equality remains very strong in New Hampshire, with 57 percent believing it should be legal and only 35 percent opposed. Even when presented with the choice to form civil unions, support for marriage was still 54 percent, with 31 percent support for civil unions, and only 13 percent opposed to any legal recognition. Earlier this year, there was a strong conservative push to repeal the state’s same-sex marriage law in the legislature, but it failed spectacularly.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: Marriage Equality Support Remains Strong In New Jersey | A new Quinnipieac poll finds that 53 percent of New Jersey voters would support a marriage equality law with 52 percent opposed. Though support dipped when respondents were giving the additional choice of civil unions — which New Jersey already has — 48 percent still supported marriage equality compared to a combined 47 percent who support civil unions or nothing. A strong majority of 67 percent still welcomes the opportunity to vote on same-sex marriage at the ballot, but support for Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) veto of marriage equality legislation declined from 48 percent to 44 percent since March. Reactions to President Obama’s support for marriage equality were split, with Republicans and older voters becoming less likely to vote for him and Democrats and younger voters becoming more likely to vote for him.

LGBT

Fox News Joins The Marriage Poll Distortion Band Wagon

A slew of polls have surveyed voters’ beliefs about marriage equality since President Obama’s endorsement last week, but the data collection is quickly becoming lazy and the interpretation sloppy. Monday’s CBS/New York Times poll has been roundly criticized for its incredibly small sample size (615) and the odd framing of its questions. Fox News unsurprisingly conducted a poll of its own in the same fashion and eagerly spun the results to accommodate its anti-equality agenda:

A majority of voters don’t support allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, yet at the same time a majority also opposes a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

According to a Fox News poll released Wednesday, 37 percent of voters believe gays and lesbians should be allowed to get married legally. While that’s unchanged from 2010, when the question was most recently asked, it’s nearly double the 20 percent who felt that way in March 2004, the first time it was asked.

There is actually nothing in the data that supports this conclusion. What the Fox News article doesn’t mention until its fourth paragraph is that it asked its question the same way the CBS/NYT poll did: forcing a choice between same-sex marriage, legal unions not called marriage, or no legal recognition. The true result of this poll is that 70 percent believe there should be legal recognition for same-sex couples, which was actually 8 points higher than what Monday’s CBS/NYT poll found.

But the problem with both polls is that they never force respondents to choose between same-sex marriage and nothing, creating an incomplete picture of where voters stand. Consider the recent polling from Colorado, which found that 62 percent support civil unions, but that 53 support full marriage equality as well. Forcing respondents to make an either/or choice about marriage and civil unions instead of allowing consideration for both separately creates a distorted view of where voters actually stand.

The Times’ Ross Douthat attempts to spin the interpretation the other way, suggesting that because so many “prefer” civil unions, their support for  marriage equality when not provided with an alternative is “reluctant.” And it’s because of that reluctance, he believes, that the results of ballot measures don’t match the polling. This, of course, is a conclusion that can only be drawn from the strange construction of the question in these polls, and it also ignores the reality that many complex factors impact these plebiscites. In North Carolina, the most current example, polling showed that voters were largely uninformed (or misinformed) about the actual impact of Amendment One, and thus did not realize they were voting to ban civil unions and domestic partnerships in addition to marriage — against their wishes. Plus, as Nathaniel Frank points out, polls on social issues are simply “notoriously bad at predicting [voter] behavior.”

Fox News wants to be able to claim it has data opposing the conclusion that a majority of Americans support the freedom to marry, despite consistent national polling over the past two years that shows otherwise. Any poll can be structured and framed to deliver a certain bias to the results, but the true momentum for marriage equality cannot be disregarded so easily.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: Voters Favor Obama For Marriage Equality, Disapprove Of Romney’s Bullying | A new Ipsos poll (PDF) compares how voters reacted to President Obama’s support of marriage equality versus how they responded to reports that Mitt Romney bullied gay kids in high school. According to the results, 28 percent (including 46 percent of Democrats) felt less favorable toward Mitt Romney, with only 5 percent favoring him more for being a bully. Most Republicans (83 percent) said it had no impact on their opinion of the candidate. On marriage, Obama broke even, gaining 31 percent favor (including 53 percent of Democrats) and losing 30 percent favor (including 56 percent of Republicans). The poll seems to suggest that conservatives are coldly indifferent to the struggles of the LGBT community, yet strongly oppose the advance of equality.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: 54 Percent Of African-Americans Agree With Obama On Marriage | The National Organization for Marriage’s confidential memos leaked earlier this year showed a concerted effort by conservatives to drive a wedge between gays and people of color, but a new poll shows just how unrealistic their narrative is. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 54 percent of African-Americans join President Obama in supporting marriage equality with only 37 percent opposed, numbers comparable to national averages. While groups like NOM attempt to showcase anti-gay leaders from the Church of God in Christ as spokespeople for the black community, it’s more clear than ever that they do not speak for their racial community any more than any other conservative talking heads.

Update

The Washington Post also highlights how Obama’s support for the freedom to marry has energized young Hispanic voters working with gay activists on immigration reform.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: PTSD Tops Military Families’ Concerns | For the first time, post-traumatic stress disorder tops the list of military families’ concerns, according to a poll conducted by non-profit advocates. The survey by Blue Star Families prioritizes military families areas of concern. Also on the list were the stress put on children by long deployments of their parents, civilian-military divide and a sense that most Americans don’t understand the sacrifices made by service-members. But Stephanie Himel-Nelson, a spokesperson for the group, said the results about post-traumatic stress disorder were “most surprising’: “Post-traumatic stress has never been in the Top 5 [concerns] before.” In a related study, Blue Star Families found that nearly two-thirds of those who report post-traumatic stress didn’t pursue avenues of treatment available through the military.

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