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Climate Progress

Is Obama So Feckless On Climate Change That He’s Influenced By Meaningless Dial Testing?

Juliet Eilperin drops this vial of nitroglycerin into her latest Washington Post piece:

… according to several people familiar with his private remarks at the home of clean-tech entrepreneur Vinod Khosla, Obama expressed concerns about the political pain involved, saying that “dial testing” of his State of the Union speech showed that the favorability ratings “plummeted” when he vowed to act on climate change if Congress refused to do so.

Not exactly “profiles in courage.” Not exactly “the Environmental President.”

This may not come as a big surprise given how Obama’s once soaring rhetoric on the moral urgency of climate action has recently crash landed.

But what makes this particularly feckless is that dial testing is all but meaningless. Compared to using polls to determine political positions — a common if widely criticized practice — using dial tests to do so is like consulting your horoscope.

For those who aren’t political junkies, I recommend this introduction, “What Are Those Squiggly Lines on CNN Telling You?

Dial-testing relies on hand-held dials that can be turned to register positive and negative reactions in real time. Participants in the focus group — 30 is a typical size — sit together and are instructed to continually adjust the dial to reflect how they react to a word, phrase, or sentence.

Here is a typical expert view of the value of dial group information:

Cliff Zukin, director of the public-policy program at Rutgers University and former head of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, argues that dial-testing is unhelpful and misleading. He points to the fact that the sample of voters is far smaller than even the tiniest poll.

“It has no scientific validity — it’s not a sample of anything that has generalized validity,” he says. What’s more, he argues, it introduces inaccurate numbers that assume a power of their own. “The problem with bad numbers is that people tend to believe their eyes.”

So the President is basing his climate policy decisions on something that has no scientific validity. Awesome. Perhaps next time it’ll be Tarot cards — or denier blogs, which are much the same thing.

Even worse, it’s entirely possible that respondents give a negative dial reaction for something that in fact works.

CNN’s focus group is run by Rita Kirk, who concedes:
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LGBT

POLL: LGBT People Are Most Concerned About Harassment And Discrimination

On Thursday, the Pew Research Center released a comprehensive national survey on the attitudes and experiences of 1,197 of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) Americans. Mirroring the growing acceptance of LGBT equality among the general population, 92 percent of the respondents believe that society has become more accepting of them and that society will continue to become more accepting.

Despite these encouraging findings, violence and harassment remain a problem for LGBT Americans — 58 percent indicate being the subject of slurs or jokes, and almost one third report having been threatened or physically attacked.

And while American support for marriage equality continues to grow, the survey finds that the most common top priority for LGBT Americans is equal employment rights—such as those that would be implemented by the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA).

Race and gender also figured heavily into feelings of acceptance among respondents. White LGBT respondents are more optimistic about future social acceptance than LGBT people of color.  As a whole, LGBT adults also generally agree that there is more acceptance of lesbian and bisexual women than there is for gay and bisexual men. Unfortunately, eight in ten respondents believe that there is little to no acceptance for transgender adults, despite encouraging progress in legal protections for transgender people.

When asked why they believe society is becoming more accepting of LGBT individuals, most believe it has to do with personally knowing someone who identifies as LGBT, knowing a public figure is LGBT, or encountering other non-LGBT people who support equality. Barack Obama and Ellen DeGeneres are cited as the two most important figures in advancing LGBT rights — 23 percent for Obama and 18 percent for Ellen DeGeneres. These findings underscore the importance of speaking out for LGBT equality.

Overall, the survey shows that LGBT Americans are positive about changing attitudes in America and continue to be more than a single-issue demographic.

Sasanka Jinadasa is an intern with LGBT Progress.

LGBT

POLL: Strong Majority Continue To Support Marriage Equality And Its Benefits

A new national poll from ABC News/The Washington Post confirms that a substantial majority support marriage equality nationwide, and even more support letting same-sex couples access the federal benefits of marriage.

The poll found that 57 percent support allowing same-sex couples to marry while only 40 percent oppose it, fairly consistent with the 58-36 result found in March. Beyond that, 63 percent support offering federal benefits, while only 34 percent are opposed, the same result found by NBC News/The Wall Street Journal in April.

With the Supreme Court’s rulings on Proposition 8 and the Defense of Marriage Act expected in the coming weeks, polling shows that arguments questioning whether the public is “ready” for marriage equality will fall flat.

LGBT

POLL: California Voters Are Ready For Marriage Equality

At some point in the next three weeks, the U.S. Supreme Court will issue its rulings on the Defense of Marriage Act and California’s Proposition 8, and a new poll confirms that California voters are ready for full marriage equality. According to the University of Southern California and Los Angeles Times, 58 percent of registered California voters support marriage equality, while only 36 percent are opposed. As in other polls, those who had a gay friend or family members were more likely to support same-sex marriage (65 percent).

Several other polls have shown that Californians are ready to leave Prop 8 in the dustbin of history:

  • June: 58-36 in support of marriage equality (USC/LA Times).
  • May: 56-38 in support of marriage equality (Public Policy Institute of California).
  • March: 67-30 in support of same-sex couples deserving the legal benefits of marriage (SurveyUSA).
  • Februrary: 61-32 in support of marriage equality (Sacramento Bee).

Though many suspect the Supreme Court will not rule definitively on Proposition 8, instead allowing a lower court ruling to stand, the Justices cannot argue that public support is opposed to same-sex marriage. In fact, both in California and nationally, a majority consistently report that they approve of recognizing same-sex marriage. When the Supreme Court overturned bans on interracial marriage in 1967, only 20 percent of the American public supported allowing blacks and whites to marry. It wasn’t until over 20 years after Loving v. Virginia (1991) that a majority of Americans were on board with interracial marriage. The polling shows that in terms of justice, same-sex marriage equality is long overdue.

LGBT

NOM: The Poll Showing Opposition To Marriage Equality Is ‘The Only One That Matters’

Results from the new NYT/CBS News poll.

Polling is not an exact science, and an individual poll should only be examined within the trend of other polling. This did not stop the National Organization for Marriage from championing a single poll that had conflicting results about how Americans feel about marriage equality and what they think the Supreme Court should do with the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA). According to results from the Huffington Post and YouGov, Americans are split 43-45 over whether the federal government should recognize same-sex marriages and 41-45 over whether the Supreme Court should overturn DOMA.

NOM’s Brian Brown claimed this was “the only poll that matters“:

For months and years activists bent on redefining marriage and striking down DOMA have argued that the Supreme Court should issue a sweeping ruling in favor of same-sex marriage because it is inevitable. This poll, and the only poll that matters — the free votes of citizens in over 2/3rds of American states — shows this is not true. The Supreme Court ought to uphold DOMA and uphold Proposition 8 and respect the pro-marriage views of millions of Americans.

Of course, there’s nothing about YouGov’s online opt-in process that makes it “free votes,” nor is there anything to distinguish it from other polling — with one exception. Unlike most phone polls, YouGov’s online polling allows respondents to answer “Not Sure,” which 12 percent did on the question of marriage equality and 14 percent did on the question of the Supreme Court’s action on DOMA. Brown neglects to mention this significant contingent of unsure respondents.

Polling over the past three years has consistently shown a majority of Americans support marriage equality, and two other reputable polls this week demonstrated just that. In addition to the Pew Research Center poll that found that even NOM’s would-be supporters think marriage is inevitable, a New York Times/CBS News poll found that 51 percent of voters support marriage equality. More importantly, 56 percent believe the federal government should recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples, while only 39 percent oppose it. These results jibe with a Quinnipiac poll from April, CNN and CBS polls from March, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll that found 58 percent of Americans support marriage equality. NOM did not write about any of those polls.

LGBT

POLL: Even Marriage Equality Opponents Believe It’s ‘Inevitable’

A new poll from the Pew Research Center finds that 72 percent of Americans believe that nationwide marriage equality is “inevitable.” This includes 85 percent of people who support marriage equality, and even 59 percent of those who oppose it. There were not even significant differences across political lines; in fact, Republicans believe it’s inevitable (73 percent) just as much as Democrats (72 percent) and independents (74 percent).

The survey also assessed how familiar individuals are with gays and lesbians and found that 87 percent of Americans personally know someone gay, up from 61 percent in 1993. About half (49 percent) have a close friend or family member who is gay. Those who know a lot of gay people are twice as likely (68 percent) to support marriage equality as those who don’t (32 percent).

LGBT

POLL: Majority Of Older Americans Now Approve Of Same-Sex Couples

Polls have consistently shown that older Americans are less likely to morally approve of homosexuality and subsequently support LGBT equality at lower rates. A new Gallup poll, however, shows that for the first time in that poll’s history, a majority of Americans over the age of 55 morally accept “gay or lesbian relations”:

That support has nearly doubled since 2001, when only 26 percent of older adults morally approved of homosexuality. Of course, the population of people over the age of 55 includes many more younger people than it did in 2001, which could help explain the growing support. In the same poll, young people (ages 18-34) showed support at 74 percent, while middle-aged adults (ages 35-54) were still down around 54 percent.

Health

POLL: Most Americans Support Physician-Assisted Suicide When It’s Not Described As ‘Suicide’

(Credit: The Telegraph)

A new poll from Gallup shows that Americans’ support for physician-assisted suicide changes radically depending on whether or not “suicide” is used in the question’s wording.

When asked if the doctor of a patient with an incurable disease should be allowed “to assist the patient to commit suicide” at the patient’s request, 51 percent of Americans said it should be permitted. However, when the question was rephrased to ask if the doctor should be allowed “to end the patient’s life by some painless means” at the patient and their family’s request, support shot up to 70 percent.

Polarization across party lines also decreases when “suicide” is not used to describe the practice. The conventional framing solicits support for the practice from 60 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of Republicans, a gap that’s reduced to 71 and 68 percent with softer language.

Support for the question with “suicide” in its phrasing has fluctuated over the past two decades. Whereas it stood virtually at the same level of support as it does today in 1996, support reached a peak of 68 percent in 2001 before gradually falling over the next ten years. Meanwhile, support for the “by some painless means” phrasing has remained over 64 percent throughout that time frame. In the late 1990s, public visibility of physician-assisted suicide, or euthanasia, was high amidst ballot measures legalizing and attempting to repeal the practice in Oregon in 1994 and 1997, and the high-profile trial and arrest of Dr Jack Kevorkian in 1998-99.

The Vermont legislature passed a bill legalizing physician-assisted suicide in May, making it the fourth state to legalize the practice. Washington state and Oregon did so through ballot measures in 1994 and 2008 respectively, and a Montana court ruling made the practice legal in 2008. A bill similar to Vermont’s was defeated in the Maine House last Friday, and a Massachusetts ballot measure was narrowly defeated in the 2012 election.

Even outside of physician-assisted suicide, the language used to communicate end-of-life decisions has been shown to have significant effects. In May, University of Pittsburgh researchers showed that when asked whether CPR should be used on critically ill patients — a measure that only works 10 percent of the time — family members were much less likely to say yes to CPR if the decision was framed as “allow a natural death” (49 percent) rather than “do not resuscitate” (61 percent).

Kumar Ramanathan is an intern at ThinkProgress.

LGBT

College Republicans: GOP Will Attract Young Voters If It Stays Quiet On Same-Sex Marriage

Earlier this year, the Republican National Committee issued a report suggesting the party should be more inclusive, but not of LGBT people. Party leaders like Reince Priebus and Jeb Bush have suggested that the GOP continue to oppose marriage equality, but find a sugarcoated way to talk about it. Now a new report from the College Republican National Committee (CRNC) similarly suggests that the party simply not emphasize its opposition to LGBT equality so as to appear more attractive to young voters.

The CRNC conducted a survey that found that 44 percent of young voters believe marriage equality should be legal. It’s unclear if the sample was all Republicans or a more random political sample, but national polling has showed support as high as 81 percent among the same age group. About half of that 44 percent (26 percent of the whole) told the CRNC that opposition to marriage equality was a deal-breaker, even if a candidate agreed with them on many other issues.

Of course, the report does not recommend changing positions on marriage equality within the party. Instead, it suggests that if Republican candidates just keep their opposition to LGBT rights quiet, they might be able to win over young people on other issues:

It is important for Republicans to bear in mind that young voters warmed to President Obama long before his position on gay marriage “evolved,” and that there is no consensus in either party on the issue. Additionally, there is a “middle ground” approach of letting states decide the issue, a position that has been espoused by some prominent Republicans like Marco Rubio. Nonetheless, there is hardly an appetite from this generation to see the GOP crusade against same-sex marriage.

In the short run, as we wait for the Supreme Court rulings on the Defense of Marriage Act and California’s Proposition 8, the best course of action for the party may be to promote the diversity of opinion on the issue within its ranks (after all, for quite some time, former vice president Dick Cheney was to the left of President Obama on same-sex marriage) and to focus on acceptance and support for gay people as separate from the definition of marriage.

Where the Republican Party will run into the most trouble over this issue is when it is not winning on any of the more prominent issues, either – the economy and spending. If a candidate is compelling enough on economic opportunity and spending, they may well be able to overcome a difference of opinion with young voters on same-sex marriage.

To be clear, Sen. Marcio Rubio (R-FL) very much opposes marriage equality — that’s the position he thinks states should take when they decide. It’s not a “middle ground” by any definition of the term. And it seems unlikely that a candidate who opposes marriage equality but simply points to other candidates or party leaders who support it is going to endear any voters. It’s certainly not a tactic any candidate is likely to try anyway.

It seems the Republican Party can only fathom one possible strategy for dealing with the issue of marriage equality (and subsequently any issue related to LGBT people): avoid it. They don’t want to recognize who LGBT people or what they’re experiencing as members of society or what policies would help protect their families. Instead, they just want to pretend that their opposition to equality is a non-issue and hope that young voters simply won’t notice how they continue to campaign and legislate against civil rights.

Election

There Is Not And Never Will Be A ‘Centrist Party’


Remember “Americans Elect”, that centrist, hedge fund billionaire-backed group that was going to ride a tsunami of centrist sentiment in 2012, compete in all 50 states and smash the two party duopoly? Well, maybe you don’t because the effort collapsed, despite spending tens of millions of hard-earned hedge fund dollars, when it couldn’t come up with a presidential candidate that generated sufficient interest even among its own members.

Well, that worked out so well that another group is forming. The creature of Dartmouth public policy professor Charlie Wheelan, the as-of-yet hypothetical “Centrist Party” aims to mobilize the teeming masses of centrist voters under the banner of Wheelan’s “Centrist Manifesto,” which calls for picking off enough Senate seats to hold the balance of power in the upper body. From there, he plans on taking over US politics and then, presumably, the world.

Why do we need it? You’ve heard it before: sure, the Republicans are bad (dogmatic, extreme, etc.) but the Democrats are an equally loutish lot. They are “too skeptical of business, too hostile toward wealth creation and overly abusive of America’s most productive citizens,” in thrall to those naughty unions and liberal interest groups, and, of course, believe government programs are the solution to every problem.

And how does he know there’s a mass base for this “a pox on both their houses” politics? Well, because there’s lot of independents out there — 39 percent in one recent poll, more than either Democrats or Republicans. He avers that these independents are “people without a party.”

Stop right there. Wheelan has just put forward the greatest myth in American politics: that independents are actually independent. As numerous studies have shown, the overwhelming majority of Americans who describe themselves as “independent” lean toward one party or the other. Call them IINOs, or Independents In Name Only. IINOs who say they lean toward the Republicans think and vote just like regular Republicans. IINOs who say they lean toward the Democrats think and vote just like regular Democrats.

Just how strong is this relationship? In 2008 (the 2012 data have not yet been released), according to the University of Michigan’s National Election Study (NES), 90 percent of independents who leaned Democratic voted for Obama, actually a higher level of support than among weak Democratic partisans (those who said they were “not very strong” Democrats), 84 percent of whom voted for Obama. Among Republican-leaning independents, a still-high 78 percent voted for McCain, compared to 88 percent support among weak Republican identifiers.

Evidently, these two groups are quite different animals. On the one hand, we have a group of “independents” who voted 90 percent for Barack Obama who have basically identical policy views to Democratic identifiers. On the other, we have a group of “independents” who voted 78 percent for John McCain and have policy views that look just like Republican identifiers. Clearly it does tremendous violence to the data to lump these two disparate groups together and give them a label — “independents” — that implies they do not have partisan inclinations.

Yet the “independent” group does include one sub-group whose members look and act more like swing voters. This is the so-called pure independents subgroup, those who say they do not lean toward either party. In 2008, they split their vote much more evenly between the parties — 51-41 for Obama — and they have policy views that are not closely aligned with either party. But this is a small group, and because it tends to show low information, low involvement, and relatively low turnout, it is even smaller in the context of an actual election. In 2008, according to the NES, they were just 7 percent of all voters and only 20 percent of nominally independent voters.

So that’s Wheelan’s army. I’d say his chances of taking over the Senate with this army are pretty slim, though his chances of extracting money from hedge fund billionaires are probably considerably better. You go to war with the army you have, I suppose.

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