ThinkProgress Logo

Stories tagged with “Polling

Climate Progress

Poll Finds Strong Support For Clean Energy, 68% Of Independents Want To Regulate CO2 As A Pollutant

The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University released their most recent survey this week:

The Yale survey, “Public Support for Climate and Energy Policies in April 2013,” dates back to 2008 and is an important barometer for public opinion on clean energy and climate issues.

In general, the year’s survey finds that support for prioritizing clean energy remains high, albeit with a recent dip, due in part to the increasing polarization of the American electorate.

Still, strong majorities support renewable energy and regulation carbon dioxide as a pollutant.

Here is more from what’s in the report, by the numbers:

  • 87 percent say President Obama and Congress should make developing sources of clean energy a priority.
  • While there are some programs at the federal level that have aided the development of clean energy and transportation, such overwhelming support shows that the government could and should do more. After all, fossil fuel extractors make bad neighbors. Some states are getting the message and clean energy development creates jobs. Colorado recently moved to strengthen its Clean Energy Standard. Other states’ clean energy sectors face threats. North Carolina has been fighting off efforts to repeal its clean energy standard this year (that fortunately failed).
  • 70 percent say global warming should be a priority for the President and Congress.
  • There are billions of reasons to make it one. President Obama has more than three years left to make it a big one.
  • 59 percent think the U.S. should cut greenhouse gas emissions on its own — even if other countries do not.
  • 33 countries and 18 sub-national jurisdictions will price carbon in 2013. This comprises 850 million people and nearly a third of the global economy. China has a pilot carbon trading program in 7 cities and provinces, and is seriously considering an absolute cap on its carbon emissions. The EU has had one for years. The ball is in America’s court, and there are some easy solutions to pursue.

Read more

LGBT

POLL: Tennessee Voters Support Benefits For Same-Sex Couples

A new poll from Vanderbilt University shows that support for legally recognizing same-sex couples continues to grow in Tennessee, but at rates slower than the rest of the country. A 49 percent plurality now support civil unions or marriage equality, while 46 percent remain opposed to both. Still, 62 percent believe that gays and lesbians should receive health insurance and other employee benefits for their partners, while only 31 percent oppose that idea.

A number of anti-gay bills related to education died in the Tennessee legislature this year, but lawmakers did designate August 31 as “ido4life Traditional Marriage Day,” a day committed to condemning same-sex marriage.

 

Election

How Obama’s Strategy For Defusing Scandals Is Like Fighting Illness

As multiple polls released in the past few days indicate, President Obama’s public standing remains strong despite the GOP’s relentless effort to exploit the “trifecta” of real and imagined government errors in the Benghazi, AP, and IRS auditing events.  This is not surprising given that the conservative spin on the facts has gone well beyond what’s legitimately at issue, pushing an self-serving, manipulative narrative of Obama’s intentions and actions in each case.

What’s more interesting is how the President and his team have decided to fight the scandal accusations: rallying his base. Rather than merely rebutting each and every claim that conservatives throw at him in a defensive posture, Obama is calling on core supporters to reorient the conversation towards more friendly, and substantive, political terrain.  Call it the “white blood cell strategy” of defusing political attacks: motivate the “healthy” forces on your side to combat the “unhealthy” ones on the other.

First, at an event in Baltimore late last week, the president wisely turned back to the central issue animating the lives of Americans -– jobs and the economy.  The Baltimore Sun reported on the President’s personal connection on the economy while advancing his administration’s agenda:

As he traveled through Baltimore to promote his jobs agenda on Friday, President Barack Obama found himself sitting near a 29-year-old man who was uncertain how to reset his life after being released from prison two years ago.

In one of the few spontaneous moments of the president’s visit, Marcus Dixon — father of two boys — told Obama how he connected in 2011 with a workforce development group called the Center for Urban Families, put his life back together and began studying to become a pharmacist.

“I grew up without a father,” the president reminded Dixon. “For your sons to see you taking this path, that’s going to make all the difference in the world.”

The President then visited a pre-k class at Moravia Park Elementary school in Baltimore City and a local dredging company to help round out his efforts to focus on manufacturing, early childhood education, and job training.

Second, at a well-received commencement address at Morehouse College, the President talked intimately and forthrightly about his experience as a black man in America invoking history and offering pointed advice on how best to succeed in a divided nation:

You now hail from a lineage and legacy of immeasurably strong men – men who bore tremendous burdens and still laid the stones for the path on which we now walk. You wear the mantle of Frederick Douglass and Booker T. Washington, Ralph Bunche and Langston Hughes, George Washington Carver and Ralph Abernathy, Thurgood Marshall and yes, Dr. King. These men were many things to many people. They knew full well the role that racism played in their lives. But when it came to their own accomplishments and sense of purpose, they had no time for excuses

Be a good role model and set a good example for that young brother coming up. If you know someone who isn’t on point, go back and bring that brother along. The brothers who have been left behind – who haven’t had the same opportunities we have – they need to hear from us. We’ve got to be in the barbershops with them, at church with them, spending time and energy and presence helping pull them up, exposing them to new opportunities, and supporting their dreams. We have to teach them what it means to be a man – to serve your city like Maynard Jackson; to shape the culture like Spike Lee. Chester Davenport was one of the first people to integrate the University of Georgia law school. When he got there, no one would sit next to him in class. But Chester didn’t mind. Later on, he said, ‘It was the thing for me to do. Someone needed to be the first.’ Today, Chester is here celebrating his 50th reunion. If you’ve had role models, fathers, brothers like that – thank them today. If you haven’t, commit yourself to being that man for someone else.

Combined, the timing and substance of these two events suggest that president and his team recognize that his progressive base can be called up to fight for the issues that really matter to voters — the economy and social advancement for all people.  As Obama told the crowd in Baltimore, “I know it can seem frustrating sometimes when it seems like Washington’s priorities aren’t the same as your priorities,” he said. “But the middle class will always be my No. 1 focus, period. Your jobs, your families, your communities — that’s why I ran for president.”

It remains to be seen whether this approach will fully contain the politicized charges and assist the president in moving forward with his agenda.  But Washington Post/ABC polling released on Tuesday suggests the strategy is initially working as planned.  

Strong approval of the President’s job performance is up 3 points among Democrats since April (from 56 to 59 percent) while his overall job approval number is up slightly from 50 to 51 percent with a 5 point increase in strong job approval among all adults.  Even though a strong majority (74 percent) of Americans believe the IRS acted inappropriately in its auditing, a plurality (45 percent) of Americans believe that Republicans in Congress are just politically posturing rather than raising legitimate issues about the events.  In contrast, 51 percent of Americans believe the President is “concentrating on things that are important to you personally” while only 33 percent of Americans hold similar opinions about Republicans in Congress.   By a 46 to 37 percent margin,  Americans also say the President is doing a better job of handling the economy than Republicans.

President Obama is doing the smart thing politically by calling on his troops to remind opportunistic Republicans that they cannot overturn an election that easily.

Election

New Census Projections Confirm That Majority-Minority US Is Inevitable

The Census Bureau has just released new population projections based on alternative scenarios for immigration — high, low and constant.  The Bureau released their main projection, based on a medium immigration scenario, last fall, which showed the US becoming majority-minority in 2043. The new projections take that conclusion even further.

Under all scenarios in the new projections, the US will become majority-minority no later than 2046.  In other words, even if immigration is low or constant, the date we become majority-minority only moves back a few years.  And if the high immigration scenario occurs, we will become majority-minority earlier, in 2041.

The Census release also notes that the population under 18 years is projected to become majority-minority in either 2018 or 2019 in all four series.  That’s only 6-7 years away.  And the working-age population (18-64) is projected to become majority-minority between 2036 (high series) and 2042 (constant series).

These data show that the race-ethnic transformation of the United States is inevitable.  We are hurtling toward a new world that no one can stop and to which everyone will have to adapt.  And that very definitely includes conservatives who think that by opposing immigration reform they can somehow stop this transformation. The new data from the Census suggest just how futile this quest will ultimately be.

LGBT

POLLS: Majorities In Virginia And Michigan Support Marriage Equality

Two new polls show continued momentum for marriage equality in the states of Michigan and Virginia.

According to results from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV Channel 4, 56.8 percent of Michigan voters now support the freedom to marry — up 12.5 percent from last year — while just 36.7 percent oppose it. At least 65 percent favor some form of civil unions, but those are also banned by the state’s constitutional amendment defining marriage. Apparently, 54 percent would be prepared to vote to repeal that ban. A November poll similarly found that 56 percent support equality, while a poll from last May found only 41 percent approval. These various results suggest a significant sea change in Michigan over the past year on this issue.

Virginia has also experienced significant progress. A new Washington Post poll shows that 56 percent support marriage equality —  up 10 points from two years ago — while 43 percent remain opposed. A series of recent posts have shown mixed results in Virginia, such as two polls last month that only found 45 percent for the freedom to marry, while an October poll found 49 percent support. Many of these polls found higher support for civil unions or other forms of relationship recognition for same-sex couples.

LGBT

POLL: Majority Of Arizonans Support Marriage Equality

A new Rocky Mountain Poll released today shows that a majority of Arizona voters support marriage equality — and by a significant margin. According to the survey, 55 percent support the freedom to marry and only 35 percent opposed it. Even among voters over the age of 54, a 46 percent plurality favor the change while 40 percent oppose it. As in other polls, certain groups favored it at higher rates, including Latinos (75 percent), Democrats (70 percent), those under the age of 35 (67 percent), Moderates/Independents (64 percent), and women (60 percent).

Last November, 22-year-old activist Tanner Pritts announced an effort to repeal Arizona’s constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, but it doesn’t seem to have taken off. Recently, the town of Bisbee established civil unions for same-sex couples, and the city of Tempe may attempt to do the same.

LGBT

Older Americans Are Pushing Marriage Equality Forward

Gallup has just released new data on public support for legalizing same sex marriage.  They describe support as “solidifying” above 50 percent, and that’s not just because of the rise of the younger generation: older folks, according to the new data, are quickly coming around to the marriage equality cause.

According to the Gallup data, support for marriage equality has doubled in the 17 years since 1996 going from a meager 27 percent then to 53 percent now. This is a quite remarkable rate of change: about a percentage point and half per year. At this rate, we’ll hit 60 percent support by 2018:

Why are things changing so fast on this issue?  Many are aware of the big age differences on this issue and assume it’s mostly liberal young people who are driving the change. It’s certainly true that young people are very liberal on same-sex marriage: 70 percent of 18-29 year olds support marriage equality, whereas 41 percent of those 65 and older do:

But that kind of generational difference is not enough to explain the enormous change we’ve seen in the last 17 years.  For example, that 41 percent for 65 and over sounds, and is, low compared to the 70 percent figure for the 18-29 demographic. But that 41 percent is also 27 points higher than the figure for 65 and over in 1996 (a mere 14 percent supported legal same-sex marriage then). Essentially none of this change is accounted for by the entrance of younger cohorts into the 65 and over group because 50-64 year olds in 1996 were just as conservative (15 percent support) as those 65 and over.

The same logic applies to the big shifts we see in every age group 30 and over in the 17 year period.  It’s not just younger cohorts replacing older cohorts within various age groups: everybody is becoming more liberal on this issue. That is why we’re seeing such rapid change — and why it’s likely to continue for many years to come.

Economy

Economic Pessimism Threatens Democrats Far More Than Republicans Do

A sign at Occupy Wall Street. (Credit: New York Daily News)

An important poll was released Friday by National Journal, reported by Ron Brownstein here and here.  The poll digs deep into people’s economic hopes and fears, uncovering a deep vein of pessimism about the country’s economic trajectory and what that means for the fate of the middle class. This economic pessimism is Obama’s greatest enemy: it can potentially break down the coalition that came together so successfully to re-elect him and it will certainly stymie any efforts that are being made to expand that coalition.

Start with raw economic dissatisfaction. As summarized by Brownstein:

The millennial generation and minorities are much more likely than the public overall to describe their current economic situation as only fair or poor. While 54 percent of the public overall (and just 39 percent of the college white women) put that negative designation on their current economic standing, 63 percent of millennials, 67 percent of African-Americans, and 69 percent of Hispanics say they are struggling…. [I]f minorities and millennials remain this dissatisfied with their economic condition, Democrats will face a growing challenge to maintain through 2016 the lopsided advantages they enjoyed among them in 2012.

In chart form:

That’s bad. And it gets worse. When asked how the middle class is faring today versus their parents’ generation, respondents were far more likely to say things are worse today than better. Brownstein:

Respondents were twice as likely to say the middle class has less, rather than more, opportunity to get ahead today than in their parents’ generation. They were three times more likely to say today’s middle class has less, rather than more, expendable income after paying for expenses. And they were four times as likely to say today’s middle class has less, rather than more, job security than the previous generation.

Chart:

These are politically toxic sentiments, no doubt fed by our ongoing economic woes. If they continue to deepen, it will become ever more difficult to reach beyond the core Obama coalition (even assuming that coalition can be kept together) and recruit new supporters who believe in change. This is particularly true of the white working class, whose views across a range of indicators are uniformly and strikingly pessimistic.

Start with whether they had reached a higher class position than their parents.  Unlike most other groups in the survey, noncollege whites were more likely (36 percent) to say they’d lost ground rather than gained ground (29 percent), relative to their parents.  And a stunning 76 percent of white working class respondents over the age of 40 expressed fear that they would fall out of their current economic class over the next few years, including 46 percent who were “very concerned”.  Reflecting these fears, 60 percent of non-college whites define being middle class as simply managing not to fall behind (“having the ability to keep up with expenses and hold a steady job while not falling behind or taking on too much debt”) rather than getting ahead (“having the opportunity for financial and professional growth, buying a home, and saving and investing for the future”).

Unsurprisingly, their view of the President and his policies is rather bleak. Just 32 percent of white working class respondents approve of his job performance and a meager 18 percent believe his policies will “increase opportunity for people like you to get ahead.”  Efforts to expand the Obama coalition among this demographic seem likely to founder on these sentiments until and unless strong growth returns to the economy and they can envision a future that offers more than a struggle not to fall behind.

Climate Progress

Growing Majority Say U.S. Weather Is Getting Worse, Nearly 6 In 10 Say Global Warming Is Affecting Our Weather

A new public opinion survey finds nearly two thirds of Americans say the weather has gotten worse in recent years.

The survey by Yale and George Mason Universities, “Extreme Weather and Climate Change in the American Mind April 2013” also found that nearly six in ten understand that global warming is affecting our weather.

Last month, Gallup’s polling confirmed that the public’s understanding and concern about global warming is on the rise. In February, a poll released by the Brookings Institution showed a 7 percent increase in the number of Americans who say that the planet is warming — with that increase influenced by extreme weather events.

This isn’t really so surprising given that the last two years have brought a stunning series of extreme weather events: two record heat waves, an historic drought, above-average destructive wildfires, and two powerful hurricanes that slammed into the East Coast. In 2012, the U.S. experienced the most extreme year for weather ever recorded, according to NOAA’s Climate Extremes Index.

The world’s largest reinsurance firm, Munich Re, released a report in October concluding that the growing number of weather extremes are a “strong indication of climate change”:

Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America.”

“In all likelihood, we have to regard this finding as an initial climate-change footprint in our US loss data from the last four decades. Previously, there had not been such a strong chain of evidence. If the first effects of climate change are already perceptible, all alerts and measures against it have become even more pressing,” said Peter Höppe, the head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research unit.

At the same time, non-climatic events (earthquakes, volcanos, tsunamis) have hardly changed, as the figure shows.

So our weather is getting more extreme, thanks in large part to climate change and, NOAA’s latest research confirms, to warming-driven Arctic ice loss as well. And the public has noticed. Now we just need our political leadership to notice.

LGBT

POLL: Majority Supports Marriage Equality In Minnesota

A new Survey USA poll shows that a 51 percent majority of Minnesota voters now support changing state law to recognize marriage equality. The division was narrow, however, with 47 percent saying they oppose the proposed legislation now pending in both chambers of the legislature. Just this week, the National Organization for Marriage was boasting that the polls opposed marriage equality, but the newest results suggest otherwise. Consistent with other polls on the issue, support was higher among women, young people (including 58 percent of 18-49-year-olds), and those who identify as Democrats or independents.

(Click to see results full-size.)

 

Older

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up