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Election

New Census Projections Confirm That Majority-Minority US Is Inevitable

By Ruy Teixeira, Guest Blogger on May 16, 2013 at 1:51 pm

The Census Bureau has just released new population projections based on alternative scenarios for immigration — high, low and constant.  The Bureau released their main projection, based on a medium immigration scenario, last fall, which showed the US becoming majority-minority in 2043. The new projections take that conclusion even further.

Under all scenarios in the new projections, the US will become majority-minority no later than 2046.  In other words, even if immigration is low or constant, the date we become majority-minority only moves back a few years.  And if the high immigration scenario occurs, we will become majority-minority earlier, in 2041.

The Census release also notes that the population under 18 years is projected to become majority-minority in either 2018 or 2019 in all four series.  That’s only 6-7 years away.  And the working-age population (18-64) is projected to become majority-minority between 2036 (high series) and 2042 (constant series).

These data show that the race-ethnic transformation of the United States is inevitable.  We are hurtling toward a new world that no one can stop and to which everyone will have to adapt.  And that very definitely includes conservatives who think that by opposing immigration reform they can somehow stop this transformation. The new data from the Census suggest just how futile this quest will ultimately be.

LGBT

POLLS: Majorities In Virginia And Michigan Support Marriage Equality

By Zack Ford on May 15, 2013 at 10:42 am

Two new polls show continued momentum for marriage equality in the states of Michigan and Virginia.

According to results from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV Channel 4, 56.8 percent of Michigan voters now support the freedom to marry — up 12.5 percent from last year — while just 36.7 percent oppose it. At least 65 percent favor some form of civil unions, but those are also banned by the state’s constitutional amendment defining marriage. Apparently, 54 percent would be prepared to vote to repeal that ban. A November poll similarly found that 56 percent support equality, while a poll from last May found only 41 percent approval. These various results suggest a significant sea change in Michigan over the past year on this issue.

Virginia has also experienced significant progress. A new Washington Post poll shows that 56 percent support marriage equality —  up 10 points from two years ago — while 43 percent remain opposed. A series of recent posts have shown mixed results in Virginia, such as two polls last month that only found 45 percent for the freedom to marry, while an October poll found 49 percent support. Many of these polls found higher support for civil unions or other forms of relationship recognition for same-sex couples.

LGBT

POLL: Majority Of Arizonans Support Marriage Equality

By Zack Ford on May 14, 2013 at 12:10 pm

A new Rocky Mountain Poll released today shows that a majority of Arizona voters support marriage equality — and by a significant margin. According to the survey, 55 percent support the freedom to marry and only 35 percent opposed it. Even among voters over the age of 54, a 46 percent plurality favor the change while 40 percent oppose it. As in other polls, certain groups favored it at higher rates, including Latinos (75 percent), Democrats (70 percent), those under the age of 35 (67 percent), Moderates/Independents (64 percent), and women (60 percent).

Last November, 22-year-old activist Tanner Pritts announced an effort to repeal Arizona’s constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, but it doesn’t seem to have taken off. Recently, the town of Bisbee established civil unions for same-sex couples, and the city of Tempe may attempt to do the same.

LGBT

Older Americans Are Pushing Marriage Equality Forward

By Ruy Teixeira, Guest Blogger on May 14, 2013 at 11:01 am

Gallup has just released new data on public support for legalizing same sex marriage.  They describe support as “solidifying” above 50 percent, and that’s not just because of the rise of the younger generation: older folks, according to the new data, are quickly coming around to the marriage equality cause.

According to the Gallup data, support for marriage equality has doubled in the 17 years since 1996 going from a meager 27 percent then to 53 percent now. This is a quite remarkable rate of change: about a percentage point and half per year. At this rate, we’ll hit 60 percent support by 2018:

Why are things changing so fast on this issue?  Many are aware of the big age differences on this issue and assume it’s mostly liberal young people who are driving the change. It’s certainly true that young people are very liberal on same-sex marriage: 70 percent of 18-29 year olds support marriage equality, whereas 41 percent of those 65 and older do:

But that kind of generational difference is not enough to explain the enormous change we’ve seen in the last 17 years.  For example, that 41 percent for 65 and over sounds, and is, low compared to the 70 percent figure for the 18-29 demographic. But that 41 percent is also 27 points higher than the figure for 65 and over in 1996 (a mere 14 percent supported legal same-sex marriage then). Essentially none of this change is accounted for by the entrance of younger cohorts into the 65 and over group because 50-64 year olds in 1996 were just as conservative (15 percent support) as those 65 and over.

The same logic applies to the big shifts we see in every age group 30 and over in the 17 year period.  It’s not just younger cohorts replacing older cohorts within various age groups: everybody is becoming more liberal on this issue. That is why we’re seeing such rapid change — and why it’s likely to continue for many years to come.

Economy

Economic Pessimism Threatens Democrats Far More Than Republicans Do

By Ruy Teixeira, Guest Blogger on May 1, 2013 at 1:15 pm

A sign at Occupy Wall Street. (Credit: New York Daily News)

An important poll was released Friday by National Journal, reported by Ron Brownstein here and here.  The poll digs deep into people’s economic hopes and fears, uncovering a deep vein of pessimism about the country’s economic trajectory and what that means for the fate of the middle class. This economic pessimism is Obama’s greatest enemy: it can potentially break down the coalition that came together so successfully to re-elect him and it will certainly stymie any efforts that are being made to expand that coalition.

Start with raw economic dissatisfaction. As summarized by Brownstein:

The millennial generation and minorities are much more likely than the public overall to describe their current economic situation as only fair or poor. While 54 percent of the public overall (and just 39 percent of the college white women) put that negative designation on their current economic standing, 63 percent of millennials, 67 percent of African-Americans, and 69 percent of Hispanics say they are struggling…. [I]f minorities and millennials remain this dissatisfied with their economic condition, Democrats will face a growing challenge to maintain through 2016 the lopsided advantages they enjoyed among them in 2012.

In chart form:

That’s bad. And it gets worse. When asked how the middle class is faring today versus their parents’ generation, respondents were far more likely to say things are worse today than better. Brownstein:

Respondents were twice as likely to say the middle class has less, rather than more, opportunity to get ahead today than in their parents’ generation. They were three times more likely to say today’s middle class has less, rather than more, expendable income after paying for expenses. And they were four times as likely to say today’s middle class has less, rather than more, job security than the previous generation.

Chart:

These are politically toxic sentiments, no doubt fed by our ongoing economic woes. If they continue to deepen, it will become ever more difficult to reach beyond the core Obama coalition (even assuming that coalition can be kept together) and recruit new supporters who believe in change. This is particularly true of the white working class, whose views across a range of indicators are uniformly and strikingly pessimistic.

Start with whether they had reached a higher class position than their parents.  Unlike most other groups in the survey, noncollege whites were more likely (36 percent) to say they’d lost ground rather than gained ground (29 percent), relative to their parents.  And a stunning 76 percent of white working class respondents over the age of 40 expressed fear that they would fall out of their current economic class over the next few years, including 46 percent who were “very concerned”.  Reflecting these fears, 60 percent of non-college whites define being middle class as simply managing not to fall behind (“having the ability to keep up with expenses and hold a steady job while not falling behind or taking on too much debt”) rather than getting ahead (“having the opportunity for financial and professional growth, buying a home, and saving and investing for the future”).

Unsurprisingly, their view of the President and his policies is rather bleak. Just 32 percent of white working class respondents approve of his job performance and a meager 18 percent believe his policies will “increase opportunity for people like you to get ahead.”  Efforts to expand the Obama coalition among this demographic seem likely to founder on these sentiments until and unless strong growth returns to the economy and they can envision a future that offers more than a struggle not to fall behind.

Climate Progress

Growing Majority Say U.S. Weather Is Getting Worse, Nearly 6 In 10 Say Global Warming Is Affecting Our Weather

By Joe Romm on May 1, 2013 at 12:35 pm

A new public opinion survey finds nearly two thirds of Americans say the weather has gotten worse in recent years.

The survey by Yale and George Mason Universities, “Extreme Weather and Climate Change in the American Mind April 2013” also found that nearly six in ten understand that global warming is affecting our weather.

Last month, Gallup’s polling confirmed that the public’s understanding and concern about global warming is on the rise. In February, a poll released by the Brookings Institution showed a 7 percent increase in the number of Americans who say that the planet is warming — with that increase influenced by extreme weather events.

This isn’t really so surprising given that the last two years have brought a stunning series of extreme weather events: two record heat waves, an historic drought, above-average destructive wildfires, and two powerful hurricanes that slammed into the East Coast. In 2012, the U.S. experienced the most extreme year for weather ever recorded, according to NOAA’s Climate Extremes Index.

The world’s largest reinsurance firm, Munich Re, released a report in October concluding that the growing number of weather extremes are a “strong indication of climate change”:

“Climate­-driven changes are already evident over the last few decades for severe thunderstorms, for heavy precipitation and flash flood­ing, for hurricane activity, and for heatwave, drought and wild­-fire dynamics in parts of North America.”

“In all likelihood, we have to regard this finding as an initial climate-change footprint in our US loss data from the last four decades. Previously, there had not been such a strong chain of evidence. If the first effects of climate change are already perceptible, all alerts and measures against it have become even more pressing,” said Peter Höppe, the head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research unit.

At the same time, non-climatic events (earthquakes, volcanos, tsunamis) have hardly changed, as the figure shows.

So our weather is getting more extreme, thanks in large part to climate change and, NOAA’s latest research confirms, to warming-driven Arctic ice loss as well. And the public has noticed. Now we just need our political leadership to notice.

LGBT

POLL: Majority Supports Marriage Equality In Minnesota

By Zack Ford on Apr 26, 2013 at 2:39 pm

A new Survey USA poll shows that a 51 percent majority of Minnesota voters now support changing state law to recognize marriage equality. The division was narrow, however, with 47 percent saying they oppose the proposed legislation now pending in both chambers of the legislature. Just this week, the National Organization for Marriage was boasting that the polls opposed marriage equality, but the newest results suggest otherwise. Consistent with other polls on the issue, support was higher among women, young people (including 58 percent of 18-49-year-olds), and those who identify as Democrats or independents.

(Click to see results full-size.)

 

Immigration

POLL: Republicans Strongly Support Gang Of Eight’s Immigration Reform Bill

By Esther Yu-Hsi Lee on Apr 25, 2013 at 4:20 pm

A new poll commissioned by a set of conservative organizations has found wide support among Republicans for the comprehensive immigration reform package introduced in the Senate last week.

The poll, headed by Grover Norquist’s pro-immigration Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) and also partially commissioned by the National Immigration Forum Action Fund and the Partnership for a New American Economy found 74 percent of Americans and 82 percent of Republicans believe that the immigration system is broken. Presented with the specifics of the bill — one in which border security would be established, fines, taxes, and background checks would be enforced, E-Verify would be imposed, and learning English would be a requirement before an applicant applies for citizenship — Republican support goes from 78 percent to 87 percent.

On the issue of border security, 74 percent of Republicans strongly support the bill that would include a way to track all inbound and outbound immigrants and enforce absolute border surveillance. E-Verify, which is utilized by employers to verify an employee’s legal status, garners greater bipartisan support with 64 percent of voters and 74 percent of Republicans indicating strong support for its inclusion in the bill. When asked whether they felt that immigration reform would help or hurt the economy, 61 percent of Republicans believe that the proposal would help the economy.

The message here is that Republicans nationwide do support immigration reform, but much of the fervor surrounding immigration reform extrapolates from the extreme right-wing elements. This also indicates that if conservative members of the Gang of Eight experience backlash, it will come not from the American people, but from the minority in a party largely dominated by immigration reform supporters.

LGBT

POLL: 62 Percent Of Virginians Support Equal Rights For Same-Sex Couples

By Zack Ford on Apr 18, 2013 at 5:11 pm

A new Roanoke College poll shows growing support for marriage equality in Virginia, though still only a close 45 percent plurality supports it over 41 percent who oppose it. Other questions, however, reveal that when separated from the question of “marriage,” Virginians are much more eager to support same-sex couples. A solid 60 percent agree that same-sex couples “can be as good parents as heterosexual couples,” while only 27 percent disagree. Further, 62 percent believe same-sex couples “should have the same legal rights as heterosexual couples,” while just 28 percent disagree.

Immigration

GOP Opposition To The Senate Immigration Bill Is Terrible Politics

By Ruy Teixeira, Guest Blogger on Apr 17, 2013 at 11:52 am

One way to look at the struggle for immigration reform, including the growing fight over the new Senate proposed reform, is as part of the culture wars.  Looked at in this way, the striking thing in recent years is how poorly it’s worked for conservatives as a culture wars issue.  It failed for conservatives in 2006, where candidates with hard-line enforcement only immigration stances lost almost all competitive races where immigration was a high profile issue.  It failed for them in 2007, when Virginia conservatives played the immigration card in campaigns for the state House and Senate only to lose ground in both.  And it failed in 2008, where conservatives lost 20 of 22 battleground races where they attempted to use immigration as a wedge issue against progressive candidates. And it failed for them again in 2012 when Mitt Romney’s anti-immigrant stance helped torpedo his bid for the Presidency.

The reason for the failure of a hard-line anti-immigration stance is simple: it’s not popular among the general public, being viewed as punitive and impractical, and is less popular still among rising demographic groups in the country, who are particularly sympathetic to immigrants and immigration reform.  For quite a few years, polls have been showing public support for immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship and a relative lack of enthusiasm for an enforcement-only approach.

For example, a May, 2006 Gallup poll asked: “Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States? Should the government deport all illegal immigrants back to their home country, allow illegal immigrants to remain in the United States in order to work but only for a limited amount of time, or allow illegal immigrants to remain in the United States and become U.S. citizens but only if they meet certain requirements over a period of time?”  Sixty-one percent of the public selected the option of allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the US and possibly become citizens if they meet “certain requirements”, compared to 15 percent who favored the limited time option and 21 percent who wanted to deport all illegal immigrants.

Similarly, a March, 2006 Time magazine poll, the public endorsed “allowing illegal immigrants now in this country to earn U.S. citizenship if they learn to speak English, have a job and pay taxes” by a 78-21 margin.  Another question, also from that Time poll, gave respondents this choice: “(1) Make illegal immigration a crime and not allow anyone who entered the country illegally to work or stay in the United States under any circumstances. OR, (2) Allow illegal immigrants to get temporary work visas so the government can track them and allow them to earn permanent residence after six years if they learn English, pay a fine, pay any back taxes, and have no criminal record.” That produced a 72-25 majority for the second option.

In 2009, 61 percent in an April Washington Post/ABC News poll supported a program to allow illegal immigrants now living in the US to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements, compared to 35 percent who opposed such a program.  And in a 2009 Pew Values Survey, 63 percent favored “providing a way for illegal immigrants currently in the country to gain legal citizenship if they pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs”, compared to just 34 percent who are opposed.  Both questions showed more support for immigration reform than in 2007, despite the hard economic times, which might have been expected to promote increased hostility toward immigrants.

Today, the public continues to show strong support for immigration reform.  In a just-released NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 64 percent said they would favor “a proposal to create a pathway to citizenship that would allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States the opportunity to eventually become legal American citizens” versus just 35 percent who were opposed.

No matter what the fate of the current legislation before Congress, public support for immigration reform is likely to grow over time, as are positive feelings about immigrants and immigration.  The declining white working class, for example, by 55-23, agrees that “immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs and abuse government benefits” (2009 CAP/Progressive Studies Program survey).  But rising groups like Hispanics (26 percent agree vs. 58 percent disagree), white college graduates (35 percent agree vs. 46 percent disagree) and professionals (23 percent agree vs. 60 percent disagree) feel quite differently.

And then there is the Millennial generation which has consistently demonstrated an open and positive attitude toward immigration.  In a 2006 Pew Gen Next poll, 18-25 year old Millennials, by 52-38, said immigrants strengthen the country with their hard work and talent, rather than are a burden on the country because they take our jobs, housing and health care, compared to very narrow pluralities in this direction among Gen Xers and Boomers and 50-30 sentiment in the other direction among those 61 and over.  Similarly, in a 2004 Pew survey, 67 percent of 18-25 year old Millennials thought the growing number of immigrants strengthens American society and only 30 percent believed this trend threatens our customs and values—again, much stronger positive sentiment than among any other generation.  And in terms of immigration reform specifically, 2007 Pew data indicated that roughly two-thirds of Millennials support providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.  Consistent with this finding, 73 percent of 18-29 year old Millennials supported giving illegal immigrants “the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements” in an April 2009 Washington Post/ABC News poll, 31 points higher than support among seniors.

The verdict of the data seem clear.  The future belongs to immigration reform and all conservatives can do at this point is try to delay the inevitable.

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