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Immigration

POLL: Republicans Strongly Support Gang Of Eight’s Immigration Reform Bill

A new poll commissioned by a set of conservative organizations has found wide support among Republicans for the comprehensive immigration reform package introduced in the Senate last week.

The poll, headed by Grover Norquist’s pro-immigration Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) and also partially commissioned by the National Immigration Forum Action Fund and the Partnership for a New American Economy found 74 percent of Americans and 82 percent of Republicans believe that the immigration system is broken. Presented with the specifics of the bill — one in which border security would be established, fines, taxes, and background checks would be enforced, E-Verify would be imposed, and learning English would be a requirement before an applicant applies for citizenship — Republican support goes from 78 percent to 87 percent.

On the issue of border security, 74 percent of Republicans strongly support the bill that would include a way to track all inbound and outbound immigrants and enforce absolute border surveillance. E-Verify, which is utilized by employers to verify an employee’s legal status, garners greater bipartisan support with 64 percent of voters and 74 percent of Republicans indicating strong support for its inclusion in the bill. When asked whether they felt that immigration reform would help or hurt the economy, 61 percent of Republicans believe that the proposal would help the economy.

The message here is that Republicans nationwide do support immigration reform, but much of the fervor surrounding immigration reform extrapolates from the extreme right-wing elements. This also indicates that if conservative members of the Gang of Eight experience backlash, it will come not from the American people, but from the minority in a party largely dominated by immigration reform supporters.

LGBT

POLL: 62 Percent Of Virginians Support Equal Rights For Same-Sex Couples

A new Roanoke College poll shows growing support for marriage equality in Virginia, though still only a close 45 percent plurality supports it over 41 percent who oppose it. Other questions, however, reveal that when separated from the question of “marriage,” Virginians are much more eager to support same-sex couples. A solid 60 percent agree that same-sex couples “can be as good parents as heterosexual couples,” while only 27 percent disagree. Further, 62 percent believe same-sex couples “should have the same legal rights as heterosexual couples,” while just 28 percent disagree.

Immigration

GOP Opposition To The Senate Immigration Bill Is Terrible Politics

One way to look at the struggle for immigration reform, including the growing fight over the new Senate proposed reform, is as part of the culture wars.  Looked at in this way, the striking thing in recent years is how poorly it’s worked for conservatives as a culture wars issue.  It failed for conservatives in 2006, where candidates with hard-line enforcement only immigration stances lost almost all competitive races where immigration was a high profile issue.  It failed for them in 2007, when Virginia conservatives played the immigration card in campaigns for the state House and Senate only to lose ground in both.  And it failed in 2008, where conservatives lost 20 of 22 battleground races where they attempted to use immigration as a wedge issue against progressive candidates. And it failed for them again in 2012 when Mitt Romney’s anti-immigrant stance helped torpedo his bid for the Presidency.

The reason for the failure of a hard-line anti-immigration stance is simple: it’s not popular among the general public, being viewed as punitive and impractical, and is less popular still among rising demographic groups in the country, who are particularly sympathetic to immigrants and immigration reform.  For quite a few years, polls have been showing public support for immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship and a relative lack of enthusiasm for an enforcement-only approach.

For example, a May, 2006 Gallup poll asked: “Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States? Should the government deport all illegal immigrants back to their home country, allow illegal immigrants to remain in the United States in order to work but only for a limited amount of time, or allow illegal immigrants to remain in the United States and become U.S. citizens but only if they meet certain requirements over a period of time?”  Sixty-one percent of the public selected the option of allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the US and possibly become citizens if they meet “certain requirements”, compared to 15 percent who favored the limited time option and 21 percent who wanted to deport all illegal immigrants.

Similarly, a March, 2006 Time magazine poll, the public endorsed “allowing illegal immigrants now in this country to earn U.S. citizenship if they learn to speak English, have a job and pay taxes” by a 78-21 margin.  Another question, also from that Time poll, gave respondents this choice: “(1) Make illegal immigration a crime and not allow anyone who entered the country illegally to work or stay in the United States under any circumstances. OR, (2) Allow illegal immigrants to get temporary work visas so the government can track them and allow them to earn permanent residence after six years if they learn English, pay a fine, pay any back taxes, and have no criminal record.” That produced a 72-25 majority for the second option.

In 2009, 61 percent in an April Washington Post/ABC News poll supported a program to allow illegal immigrants now living in the US to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements, compared to 35 percent who opposed such a program.  And in a 2009 Pew Values Survey, 63 percent favored “providing a way for illegal immigrants currently in the country to gain legal citizenship if they pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs”, compared to just 34 percent who are opposed.  Both questions showed more support for immigration reform than in 2007, despite the hard economic times, which might have been expected to promote increased hostility toward immigrants.

Today, the public continues to show strong support for immigration reform.  In a just-released NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 64 percent said they would favor “a proposal to create a pathway to citizenship that would allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States the opportunity to eventually become legal American citizens” versus just 35 percent who were opposed.

No matter what the fate of the current legislation before Congress, public support for immigration reform is likely to grow over time, as are positive feelings about immigrants and immigration.  The declining white working class, for example, by 55-23, agrees that “immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs and abuse government benefits” (2009 CAP/Progressive Studies Program survey).  But rising groups like Hispanics (26 percent agree vs. 58 percent disagree), white college graduates (35 percent agree vs. 46 percent disagree) and professionals (23 percent agree vs. 60 percent disagree) feel quite differently.

And then there is the Millennial generation which has consistently demonstrated an open and positive attitude toward immigration.  In a 2006 Pew Gen Next poll, 18-25 year old Millennials, by 52-38, said immigrants strengthen the country with their hard work and talent, rather than are a burden on the country because they take our jobs, housing and health care, compared to very narrow pluralities in this direction among Gen Xers and Boomers and 50-30 sentiment in the other direction among those 61 and over.  Similarly, in a 2004 Pew survey, 67 percent of 18-25 year old Millennials thought the growing number of immigrants strengthens American society and only 30 percent believed this trend threatens our customs and values—again, much stronger positive sentiment than among any other generation.  And in terms of immigration reform specifically, 2007 Pew data indicated that roughly two-thirds of Millennials support providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.  Consistent with this finding, 73 percent of 18-29 year old Millennials supported giving illegal immigrants “the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements” in an April 2009 Washington Post/ABC News poll, 31 points higher than support among seniors.

The verdict of the data seem clear.  The future belongs to immigration reform and all conservatives can do at this point is try to delay the inevitable.

LGBT

POLL: 62 Percent Of New Jersey Voters Would Vote For Marriage Equality

A new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds that an overwhelming number of New Jerseyans want to vote on the question of same-sex marriage so that they can approve it. According to the poll, 69 percent of respondents support a referendum, and 62 percent of respondents would vote yes for marriage equality while only 30 percent would oppose it. Indeed, 75 percent of those who support a referendum are supporters. Support continues to be highest among Democrats (72 percent) and independents (63 percent), and lowest among Republicans (40 percent) and self-identified conservatives (31 percent).

This year, New Jersey legislators are still contemplating overriding Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) veto from last year, but it’s unclear if they will secure the votes necessary. A lawsuit is also proceeding asserting that civil unions fall short of providing equality to same-sex couples. Though a referendum seems like it would have promise if advanced, it would still require an expensive campaign and would have negative consequences for the LGBT community.

LGBT

POLL: Overwhelming Majority Supports Federal Recognition Of Same-Sex Marriage

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that nearly two-thirds of voters (63 percent) support the federal government recognizing same-sex marriages when they’re legal in states, while only 34 percent oppose this recognition. This is the question the Supreme Court is weighing in a case about the Defense of Marriage Act. The poll also found that a majority (53 percent) continues to support same-sex marriage, while only 42 percent oppose it.

One other interesting finding shows that there has been a similar trend in regards to whether people believe individuals are born gay or if it’s a choice. In 2013, many more individuals understand that sexual orientation is an innate identity (50-31) than they did in 1999 (41-38), a 16 point shift.

Climate Progress

Let’s Talk Climate, Mr. President

By Bill Becker

With the exception of Alfred E. Newman and those who are taking advantage of legalized pot, we Americans are very good worriers. We are even able to worry about several things at once. It’s a kind of emotional multi-tasking and we do it all the time.

Nevertheless, it’s a skill that President Obama consistently underestimates when he talks about the politics of global climate change. The most recent example came in his meeting earlier this month with high-net-worth supporters in San Francisco. As the New York Times reported it, the President lamented that the politics of the environment are “tough.”

“You may be concerned about the temperature of the planet, but it’s probably not your No. 1 concern,” the Times quoted him as saying. “And if people think, well, that’s shortsighted, that’s what happens when you’re struggling to get by.”

He made a similar statement last Nov. 14 in his first post-election news conference:

There’s no doubt that for us to take on climate change in a serious way would involve making some tough political choices, and you know, understandably, I think the American people right now have been so focused and will continue to be focused on our economy and jobs and growth that, you know, if the message is somehow we’re going to ignore jobs and growth simply to address climate change, I don’t think anybody’s going to go for that. I won’t go for that.

The idea that we live in a one-worry-at-a-time political environment is encouraged by public opinion polls that ask citizens to identify their top issues – in other words, what worries them most. Climate change routinely falls well down the list behind all things economic.

The polls corner their respondents into false choices, however, because most of the issues people are asked to rank are interrelated. Oil prices have a big impact on the economy and jobs. The extreme weather attributed to climate change, which in turn is attributed to our use of fossil fuels, results in more federal spending, which deepens the budget deficit and pressure on taxes. Climate impacts around the world already are undermining international security. Some of the money American consumers spend on gasoline ends up in the Middle East supporting terrorism. And as study after study has concluded, using energy more efficiently and making the transition to renewable energy not only slows climate change; it also stimulates the economy and creates jobs. Breaking these issues apart, stuffing them into stovepipes and asking people to rank them is not nearly as informative as pollsters and politicians make it out to be.

As intelligent as he obviously is, President Obama should have no trouble stitching these issues back together to help the American people see the interconnections that exist in the real world between energy, climate, economy, jobs, national security, government spending, and other issues on the pollsters’ lists.

During his November news conference, President Obama continued:

If, on the other hand, we can shape an agenda that says we can create jobs, advance growth and make a serious dent in climate change and be an international leader, I think that’s something that the American people would support. So you know, you can expect that you’ll hear more from me in the coming months and years about how we can shape an agenda that garners bipartisan support and helps move this — moves this agenda forward.

So let’s hear from you, Mr. President. Since it’s so hard to put carbon back in the smokestack or to put the pieces back after our super-storms, let’s have a national conversation about climate change in the coming months rather than the coming years. Don’t worry about us. We’re world-class worriers. It’s a skill that’s been passed down from generation to generation. We, like you, are able to handle more than one important issue at a time.

– Bill Becker is Executive Director of the Presidential Climate Action Project (PCAP), an initiative of Natural Capitalism Solutions to help the President of the United States take decisive action on global warming and energy security.

Climate Progress

Gallup Poll: Public Understanding And Concern About Global Warming Keeps Rising

Gallup latest polling confirms that the public’s understanding and concern about global warming is on the rise. This matches the findings of other pollsters — see Yale Poll (10/12): “Large And Growing Majority Of Americans” Say “Global Warming Is Affecting Weather In The United States.”

The public’s awareness that humans are the primary cause of global warming has returned to pre-2010 levels (see chart above). This awareness matches our ever-strengthening scientific understanding — see It’s “Extremely Likely That at Least 74% of Observed Warming Since 1950″ Was Manmade; It’s Highly Likely All of It Was.”

The public’s (accurate) understanding of the scientific consensus on global warming is “back above 60%”:

Gallup explains what’s probably going on:

Americans’ concerns about global warming peaked at points in the late 1980s and the late 1990s, and again between 2006 and 2008, possibly related to strong environmentalist campaigns to raise awareness of the issue at those times — including the release of Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” in 2006. Conversely, concerns receded in 2009 and 2010, particularly among Republicans and conservatives, corresponding with a flurry of publicity about scientists who doubt global warming is caused by human activities, as well as some controversy about global warming research. With all of this dying down somewhat in the last few years, attitudes are returning to previous levels, putting them near the long-term averages.

Gallup’s conclusion about the role of Gore’s movie matches that of academic research. As Dr. Robert J. Brulle of Drexel University described to me his 2012 study that examined the results of 6 different polling organizations over the years, “I think this should close down forever the idea that Al Gore caused the partisan polarization over climate change.”

Here is Gallup’s quarter-century polling on public concern about global warming:

Again, this matches the findings of other pollsters — see Rasmussen Poll (11/12): 68 Percent Of American Voters See Global Warming As A “Serious Problem” (up from 46% in 2009).

LGBT

POLL: Majority Believe U.S. Constitution Should Determine Marriage Equality

A new poll from Quinnipiac University has found the strongest support for marriage equality a Quinnipiac poll has ever found. For the first time, a Quinnipiac poll shows 50 percent support same-sex marriage while just 41 percent oppose it, a 28-point shift from just five years ago (36-55). Beyond that result, 56 percent believe that the question of same-sex marriage should be decided by the U.S. Constitution, while only 36 percent believe it should be left up to state laws. Perhaps the Supreme Court will similarly consider that gays and lesbians deserve equal protection under the Constitution instead of allowing individual states to continue to discriminate.

Climate Progress

Poll: GOP Leaders Out Of Touch With GOP Voters On Clean Energy And Climate Change

Though Republican party leaders are often known for being dismissive or skeptical of climate science, a new survey has found Republican voters don’t necessarily share their leaders’ views on climate and energy.

The survey, conducted by George Mason’s Center for Climate Change Communication, polled Republican and Republican-leaning independents and found the majority of respondents accept climate change is happening — a step some influential Republicans have yet to take — and 62 percent of those think the U.S. should take steps to address the problem.

Here’s what else the survey found:

  • Republican voters support clean energy: 77 percent of respondents said they want America to use more renewable energy, and a large majority of them want the switch to happen immediately.
  • They believe the benefits of clean energy outweigh the costs: achieving energy independence and saving resources for future generations were more important to a majority of respondents than the increased government regulation and free market interference that the survey cited as potential costs of a major change in energy sources. This is at odds with Republican leaders’ recent stances on renewable energy: during the 2012 election, presidential candidate Mitt Romney condemned the Obama Administration’s “war on coal,” and several Republicans in congress have opposed government funding for clean energy.
  • Only about one-third of the respondents agree with the Republican party’s stance on climate change, a platform that in 2012 made no direct mention of climate change and lauded the economic value of coal and the benefits of the Keystone XL pipeline.

As scientific evidence of climate change’s immediate and future impacts has only grown over the years, many Republican leaders have become increasingly hostile toward clean energy initiatives and blind to the threats of climate change. The language of the 2012 Republican platform, for instance, was a far cry from the party’s 2008 platform, which acknowledged that human activity was increasing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and reasoned that the “common sense” approach to the issue would be to take “measured and reasonable steps today to reduce any impact on the environment.”

But as the George Mason study demonstrates, public opinion hasn’t followed the party’s lead. A recent Stanford University poll found that 82 percent accept that the earth is warming, and 73 percent believe climate change-induced sea level rise poses a threat to the U.S. And a Pew poll released today found 65 percent of Americans think climate change is a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem. The Republican party has been said to be out of touch with voters on issues such as immigration and marriage equality — perhaps increasing public consensus can help the party evolve on climate change as well.

LGBT

POLLS: Americans Want The Supreme Court To Overturn DOMA

Two new polls confirm that a significant majority of Americans want the Supreme Court to overturn the Defense of Marriage Act so that same-sex couples can access the federal benefits associated with marriage. In fact, even some voters who oppose marriage equality itself feel that DOMA is bad law.

For example, a new poll from CNN/ORC International shows that 56 percent of Americans believe the federal government should recognize any same-sex marriage that is legal in the states, while 43 percent disagree. This is three points higher than CNN’s poll released last week, which found that 53 percent support marriage equality and 44 percent oppose it.

A similar poll from CBS News found an even more favorable result: 60 percent believe believe the federal government should recognize same-sex marriage while only 35 percent disagree. Nevertheless, CBS polling also found that 53 percent support full marriage equality and 39 percent oppose it. Only 36 percent believe having same-sex relations between consenting adults is wrong.

As the oral arguments wrap up today, it’s clear that an overwhelming number of Americans appreciate that denying married same-sex couples federal benefits just isn’t fair.

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