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Immigration

Immigrants Could Become Leading Driver Of Population Growth In 14 Years

New projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Wednesday reveals that immigration will overtake natural increase (in other words, births minus deaths) as the leading cause of U.S. population increase for the first time in almost two centuries. Three contributing factors to the population increase takeover include declining fertility rates, an aging baby boomer population, and continued immigration.

The Census Bureau presents three scenarios different only on the “level of net international migration they assume.” In every scenario, the minority immigrant population would become the driver of population growth sometime between 2027 and 2038. As shown, the “middle series” assumes a consistent flow of 725,000 between 2012 to 2060.

(Credit: U.S. Census Bureau)

In the “low series” projection, annual levels of would increase net immigration from 700,000 in 2012 to 824,000 by 2060. The “high series” graph would increase from 747,000 in 2012 to 1.6 million by 2060. The high series estimate also projects that the “single-race white” population will be in the minority by 2041.

The influx of legal immigrants from comprehensive immigration reform will provide a net benefit of $410 billion over the next 50 years, according to actuary data gathered by Social Security at the behest of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). Nearly 6.6 million more workers will be paying Social Security taxes which would allow immigrants to continue helping to keep the Social Security Trust Fund solvent for the aging baby boomer population and contribute to the economy. As a result, making many immigrants into newly legalized taxpayers would directly counter so-called costs that immigration opponents claim burdens the system.

Health

Why You Shouldn’t Believe The Unfounded Concerns Over Falling U.S. Birth Rates

Lamenting America’s declining birth rate has become a regular ritual among America’s conservative commentators, who see the trend as a threat to the long-term economic sustainability of the social safety net as well as the traditional family structure. The most recent round of concern was kicked off by a Pew Research Center report that found births per 1,000 women of childbearing age hit a record low of 63.2 in 2011. That stat was picked up in a New York Times op-ed piece and subsequent blog post by conservative writer Ross Douthat, with additional encouragement from other commentators who joined in.

In fact, lower birth rates actually correlate with a whole host of positive social and economic trends, such as increased female literacy, increased job opportunities for women, overall national wealth, and women gaining greater control over their own reproduction. So decrying dropping birth rates — especially when it’s conservatives doing the mourning — comes awfully close to pining for past decades when women were far less equal.

But there’s an even more practical issue with this latest round of worries over the “birth dearth” — it’s focusing on the wrong statistic. Douthat’s number comes from the general fertility rate, which calculates annual births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. The Population Reference Bureau explains that the total fertility rate, or “the average number of children women would bear in their lifetimes if the pace of childbearing remained constant for the long term,” is actually a more appropriate measure:

The U.S. population is “older” now than it was in the past—we have more older people than younger people—and that includes a smaller proportion of younger women in the childbearing population than before.

So, when we think about birth rate trends, we should really be using the total fertility rate (TFR). The TFR is “blind”—unaffected by age structure—and in showing the implied number of children women would have at today’s rate, is directly comparable over the years: apples to apples. This may be a tad confusing, but consider this: If the pace of childbearing were the same today as it was in 1976, the U.S. would have had 3.7 million births instead of the 3.9 million it did have.

And 1976, not 2011, is when the total fertility rate hit its lowest point. It’s been on a steady rise since, arguably clearing the “replacement rate” — the level needed to keep the U.S. population from declining — in 2006. It dropped again in response to the recession, but that’s a typical and temporary reaction to hard economic times.

Even using the total fertility rate to calculate birth rates may be low-balling it. The best the TFR can do is anticipate how many children an average woman would have as she passes through all the years of her reproductive life, using the current rates of U.S. births for those various stages. But if more and more women have delayed childbirth over the last few decades, shifting the birth rate’s center of gravity to older women, then actual birth rates will be higher than what the TFR anticipates. In recent years, in fact, that’s exactly what’s been happening:

NEWS FLASH

Sluggish Economy And Low Immigration Push U.S. Population Growth To Slowest Rate Since 1945 | The sluggish economy pushed down U.S. birth rates last year and immigration reached the lowest levels since 1991, combining to lead to the slowest population growth in the U.S. since 1945, when the population actually dropped by 0.3 percent. Between April 2010 and July 2011, the U.S. population grew by 2.8 million people, or 0.7 percent, according to the Census Bureau. And the net increase of immigrants in the U.S. was 703,000, down from a peak of 1.2 million in 2001.

Climate Progress

Is the Climate Crisis Caused by the 7 Billion or the 1 Percent?

Too many people book coverAs we reach 7 billion people, Climate Progress is featuring a variety of opinions on population.

– by Ian Angus and Simon Butler in a Grist repost

The approach of [7 billion] milestone produced a wave of articles and opinion pieces blaming the world’s environmental crises on overpopulation. In New York’s Times Square, a huge and expensive video declares that “human overpopulation is driving species extinct.” In London’s busiest Underground stations, electronic poster boards warn that 7 billion is ecologically unsustainable.

In 1968, Paul Ehrlich’s bestseller The Population Bomb declared that as a result of overpopulation, “the battle to feed humanity is over,” and the 1970s would be a time of global famines and ever-rising death rates. His predictions were all wrong, but four decades later his successors still use Ehrlich’s phrase — too many people! — to explain environmental problems.

But most of the 7 billion are not endangering the earth. The majority of the world’s people don’t destroy forests, don’t wipe out endangered species, don’t pollute rivers and oceans, and emit essentially no greenhouse gases.

Even in the rich countries of the Global North, most environmental destruction is caused not by individuals or households, but by mines, factories, and power plants run by corporations that care more about profit than about humanity’s survival.

No reduction in U.S. population would have stopped BP from poisoning the Gulf of Mexico last year.

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Climate Progress

Director of New Documentary GrowthBusters Says “Stop Drinking the Kool-Aid”

UPDATE:  The director responds to comments here.

JR:  Right now, the global economy is a Ponzi scheme.  We created a way of raising standards of living we can’t possibly pass on to our children.  As Tom Friedman reported in 2009, “We have been getting rich by depleting all our natural stocks — water, hydrocarbons, forests, rivers, fish and arable land — and not by generating renewable flows.”

It has to collapse, unless adults stand up now and say, “This is a Ponzi scheme. We have not generated real wealth, and we are destroying a livable climate.”  Real wealth is something you can pass on in a way that others can enjoy.”  I’ve also noted that the 1% can insulate themselves from the collapse far longer than everyone else, with their gated and moated communities, multiple homes in multiple climates, security guards, private jets and general insensitivity to the price of anything — and hence insensitivity to the value of everything.

by Cole Mellino

The new documentary film GrowthBusters had its world premiere in Washington, DC last night. And Climate Progress had a chance to catch up with Director Dave Gardner to chat about why he made the movie.

Gardner, like so many Americans, grew up hooked on growth. He once had a successful career as a corporate film producer, putting together promotional videos for large companies. But his newest film rails against many of those corporations that are trying to keep us addicted to growth.

First, here’s the trailer to the film:

GrowthBusters: Hooked on Growth Trailer from Dave Gardner on Vimeo.

GrowthBusters follows Gardner as he questions the push for never-ending economic growth in the U.S. and the world.

“If I have one goal on this planet, it is to make it okay to question growth,” he tells Climate Progress. “I’m not afraid to say I’m against growth.”

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Climate Progress

Open Thread Plus Population Cartoon of the Week

A cyber-penny for your thoughts.

Toles has the cartoon that sums up the week’s biggest news:

http://cdn.svcs.c2.uclick.com/c2/46bd3370e709012e2fb300163e41dd5b

Notice how he sneaks in climate change along with the food insecurity message.

Related Post:

  • Nature:  “Feeding some 9 billion people by mid-century in the face of a rapidly worsening climate may well be the greatest challenge the human race has ever faced.”

 

 

Climate Progress

People and the Planet: The World at 7 Billion

As we approach 7 billion people, Climate Progress is featuring a variety of opinions on population (see links below).

by Carl Pope and Carmen Barroso

Any day now, if it hasn’t happened already, the 7 billionth baby will be born on our small planet.

While many may assume that the environmental and reproductive health movements have divergent agendas—the health of the planet vs. the health of the people—we agree on one very simple principle: everyone, whether born into the bustling streets of New York or a remote village in Nicaragua, is entitled to a set of fundamental human rights. These include the right to live in a healthy and safe environment, and the right to decide if and when to have children.

Today, more than ever, those rights are deeply intertwined. The 7 billionth baby will inherit a planet facing enormous threats and challenges. And while environmental and reproductive health organizations have different missions, we know, based on decades of experience, that the health of our planet and our people are inseparable. We can be mindful of our environment and improve the lives of women, men, and youth worldwide.

Environmental justice and reproductive rights are mutually reinforcing; when people have the knowledge, right and tools to decide how many children are right for them, they typically chose to have smaller, healthier families.  This has positive ramifications on the surrounding environment and the health of families and communities.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE OR COMMENT

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Climate Progress

I Helped Put World Population Over 3 Billion. How About You? Plus Powerful Video of Women, Families and Climate Change

Population Action International asks “What’s Your Number?”

Climate Progress hasn’t focused on population, for reasons explained here: “Consumption dwarfs population as main global warming threat.”  But now that it seems that population growth trends are not stabilizing as quickly as had been widely projected just a few years ago, we’ve been covering it a little more.

Population Action International has this clever calculator to draw attention to the issue.  And here’s an excellent video they put together last month, “Weathering Change:  Stories about climate and family from women around the world,” which “takes us to Ethiopia, Nepal and Peru to hear the stories of four women as they struggle to care for their families, while enduring crop failures and water scarcity”:

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE OR COMMENT

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Climate Progress

We’re Beyond Earth’s Carrying Capacity Now. Will Accelerating Climate Change Turn the Population Boom into a Bust?

Demographers are predicting that world population will climb to 10 billion later this century. But with the planet heating up and growing numbers of people putting increasing pressure on water and food supplies and on life-sustaining ecosystems, will this projected population boom turn into a bust?

by Robert Engelman, in a Yale e360 cross-post

The hard part about predicting the future, someone once said, is that it hasn’t happened yet. So it’s a bit curious that so few experts question the received demographic wisdom that the Earth will be home to roughly 9 billion people in 2050 and a stable 10 billion at the century’s end. Demographers seem comfortable projecting that life expectancy will keep rising while birth rates drift steadily downward, until human numbers hold steady with 3 billion more people than are alive today.

What’s odd about this demographic forecast is how little it seems to square with environmental ones. There’s little scientific dispute that the world is heading toward a warmer and harsher climate, less dependable water and energy supplies, less intact ecosystems with fewer species, more acidic oceans, and less naturally productive soils. Are we so smart and inventive that not one of these trends will have any impact on the number of human beings the planet sustains? When you put demographic projections side by side with environmental ones, the former actually mock the latter, suggesting that nothing in store for us will be more than an irritant. Human life will be less pleasant, perhaps, but it will never actually be threatened.

Some analysts, ranging from scientists David Pimentel of Cornell University to financial advisor and philanthropist Jeremy Grantham, dare to underline the possibility of a darker alternative future. Defying the optimistic majority, they suggest that humanity long ago overshot a truly sustainable world population, implying that apocalyptic horsemen old and new could cause widespread death as the environment unravels. Most writers on environment and population are loathe to touch such predictions. But we should be asking, at least, whether such possibilities are real enough to temper the usual demographic confidence about future population projections.

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