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NEWS FLASH

Catholic Voters Break With Church Over Contraception Coverage | Catholic voters are breaking with the Church’s opposition to insurance coverage of contraception, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds. Sixty-five percent of voters — including a majority of Catholics — “said they supported the Obama administration’s requirement that health insurance plans cover the cost of birth control, and 59 percent, said the health insurance plans of religiously affiliated employers should cover the cost of birth control.” A Public Policy Polling survey conducted on Friday similarly found that 57 percent of Catholic voters — and 59 percent of Catholic women — support the requirement. Under the administration’s policy, “women who work for institutions like Catholic hospitals and universities can obtain birth control from their insurance company without a co-pay, but their employers don’t have to include contraception in their healthcare plans.”

NEWS FLASH

NYT Poll: Most Catholics, Republicans Support Recognition Of Same-Sex Relationships | A new New York Times/CBS News poll confirms that Catholics and Republicans may be breaking away from their leadership’s opposition to recognizing gay and lesbian relationships. “More than two-thirds of Catholic voters supported some sort of legal recognition of gay couples’ relationships: 44 percent favored marriage, and 25 percent preferred civil unions. Twenty-four percent said gay couples should receive no legal recognition.” White Evangelicals were more conservative, however, with just 18 percent supporting marriage and 25 backing civil unions. But interestingly, the poll also found that 50 percent of self-identified Republicans support either marriage equality or civil unions. Forty-seven percent believe “there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.”

Security

Conflicting Poll Results Offer Insights Into U.S. Public Opinion On Iran Attack

A newly released poll by YouGov and YouGov-Cambridge led the Christian Science Monitor to report that “nearly half of Americans now say they would bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities to stop its uranium enrichment in order to halt its advances toward an ability to build a nuclear weapon.” Indeed, the poll found that 44 percent of Americans supported bombing Iran’s nuclear installations while only 35 percent opposed, a strikingly different result than a United Technologies/National Journal poll released last week which showed that only 17 percent of the U.S. public supported military action against Iran.

Why the discrepancy? An examination of the polling methodology reveals a very different set of questions between the two polls.

The YouGov poll asked respondents [PDF]:

Suppose a number of countries decided to take action against Iran in order to
stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon
. Would you support or oppose your country’s Government taking part or assisting in each of the following?

Respondents were then asked whether they supported or opposed a number of actions including, but not limited to, air strikes. The question puts forth a situation in which a “number of countries” are acting multilaterally to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This hinges on the hypothetical situation that Iran has decided to pursue a nuclear weapon — an assertion that neither the IAEA nor U.S. intelligence officials say there is enough evidence to definitely support — and a multilateral coalition coming together to conduct air strikes.

The United Technologies/National Journal poll released last week asked respondents:

As You May Know, Many In Congress And On The WH ’12 Campaign Trail Have Said That Iran Should Not Be Permitted To Produce A Nuclear Weapon. How Far Do You Think The U.S. Should Go To Prevent This?

This question poses no hypothetical scenarios about Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon or a multilateral effort to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The takeaway from the two contrasting poll results is that Americans are not unconditionally in favor of or opposed to military action against Iran. The IAEA and U.S. intelligence officials have expressed concerns about potential military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program but the YouGov polling question presumes a situation in which Iran is verifiably seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon. Details such as whether Iran must be stopped from constructing a nuclear weapon and the presence of a multilateral military campaign, are very important in determining American support for military action.

But the Christian Science Monitor’s headline, “Bomb Iran? Nearly half of Americans say ‘yes’ to halt nuclear program,” completely overlooks the complexity of the polling questions and the YouGov poll’s revealing insights into American thinking on military action against Iran.

Health

Poll: Affordable Care Act Gaining Wider Acceptance

A new Harris Interactive/HealthDay poll found that support for certain components of President Obama’s health reform law seems to be slowly increasing with time. According to the report, the percentage of Americans polled who are in support of the law’s provision preventing insurance companies from denying coverage to those with pre-existing conditions has jumped to 71 percent from just 64 percent at the end of 2010.

Other provisions of the ACA that are gaining acceptance since November 2010: creating insurance exchanges where people can shop for insurance is up to 59 percent from 51 percent; requiring research to measure the effectiveness of different treatments is now at 53 percent from 44 percent; and providing tax credits to small businesses to help pay for their employees’ insurance is now up 70 percent versus 60 percent.

Fatima Najiy

NEWS FLASH

Minnesotans Split On Marriage Inequality Amendment | Voters in Minnesota are divided about a proposed constitutional amendment to outlaw same-sex marriage, a new Public Policy Opinion survey finds. Forty-eight percent of voters say they support defining marriage as between one man and one woman, while 44 percent are opposed. “It’s very much a generational issue- voters under 65 oppose the amendment but seniors support it 58/32 and that’s making the difference right now. 23% of Democrats intend to vote for it, more than the 19% of Republicans who are opposed.” Seventy-one percent of respondents say they “support either gay marriage or civil unions.”

Health

Why Americans Oppose The Individual Mandate

The latest Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll finds that Americans are still split on their support for the Affordable Care Act, “with a slightly higher share expressing an unfavorable (44 percent) rather than a favorable view (37 percent).” Half of all respondents still said they “prefer to either expand the law (31 percent) or leave it in its current form (19 percent), while slightly fewer would like the law repealed, either outright (22 percent) or repealed and replaced with a Republican‐backed
alternative (18 percent).”

Interestingly, the survey also explores why so many — 67 percent — oppose the individual mandate: the most common reasons offered in their own words include that the government shouldn’t be able to force people to do something they don’t want to do (30 percent), that health insurance is too expensive (25 percent), and complaints about the fine for non‐compliance (22 percent):

That top reason sounds an awful lot like a GOP talking point and may say more about the public’s general weariness for larger government than its distaste for this particular provision. But once the requirement kicks in and Americans realize that the law offers a wide array of coverage options without any singular government mandated plan, their trepidation about paying a penalty for going uninsured will likely dissipate.

An earlier Kaiser poll found that people become more supportive of the mandate once they learn more about it. Support substantially grew, for instance, once voters are told that “without the mandate, people might wait until they are seriously ill to obtain coverage, driving up insurance costs for everyone.” Another pro-mandate argument tips the public even more in favor of the provision: “Sixty-one percent of those surveyed support it when told most Americans would still get their coverage through their employers and thus wouldn’t be affected by the mandate.”

NEWS FLASH

Majority Of Americans Oppose GOP Efforts To Cut Back Medicare, Social Security | Ruy Teixeira argues that Republican candidates who are calling for the elimination — or significant reduction — of programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, may have a hard time attracting general election voters, who overwhelmingly support the safety-net initiatives. According to a Pew survey, “58 percent thought it was more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are rather than take steps to reduce the budget deficit (35 percent),” “59 percent thought it was more important to avoid any future cuts in Social Security benefits,” and the same majorities oppose raising the eligibility age for both programs:

Health

Poll: 56 Percent Of Americans Believe Health Reform Includes A Public Option

A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds that support for the Affordable Care Act increased since its lowest approval dip in October, but Americans are still unsure of the actual provisions included in President Obama’s health care reform law. For instance, while 44 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of reform, 50 percent want to expand or keep it in place, with only 37 percent supporting repeal. A majority also favor its most popular elements like easy-to-understand benefit summaries and tax credits for small businesses:

But a surprisingly high number of voters are unaware that these these provisions are actually part of the law, with a majority falsely believing the ACA includes a new public option. A third of respondents also “think the law allows a government panel to make decisions about end-of-life care for people on Medicare”:

Kaiser suggests that public disapproval of the law has less to do with the actual provisions in the law — voters either like them or don’t know about them — and more with the “general disillusionment with the state of the country and Washington politics” (and, I would add, the long drawn out and complicated process of actually passing reform). If that’s the case, then the Democrats have a real opportunity to build support for the measure by highlighting and campaigning on some of its best features, a task that will seem less daunting as a growing number of voters begin to actually benefit from the law.

Health

Gallup: The Affordable Care Act Isn’t Popular, But Its Provisions Are

A new Gallup poll finds that while a plurality of Americans favor repeal — 47 percent to 42 percent — most still believe that it’s the “federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare,” the same basic pattern found in 2009 and 2010. Fifty-six percent also told Gallup that “they prefer a system for providing healthcare based mostly on private health insurance, rather than one that is government run”:

So while Americans oppose a law called the Affordable Care Act, they support its provisions — the individual requirement and a private system of insurance (expressed in the ACA through state-based exchanges that will offer private coverage.) These elements remain popular despite two years of daily attacks and misrepresentations, which seemed to have only heightened the public’s frustration with the political process that created the ACA, while shielding the actual substance from too much disapproval. All this is good news for reform and suggests that it will only grow in popularity once a larger number of Americans benefit from it.

A recent CNN poll also found that “52% of Americans favor mandatory health insurance, up from 44% in June. [...] 47% oppose the health insurance mandate, down from 54% in early summer.”

Health

Fox News Host Admits Network Is Trying To Build Public Enthusiasm For Health Care Repeal

Fox News host Bill Hemmer suggested that the conservative network was trying to build support for the repeal of the Affordable Care Act in an interview this morning with Rep. Steve King (R-IA). During a segment about the public’s waning enthusiasm for eliminating the law, King expressed concern that Americans were “making accommodations” to the measure since lawmakers are no longer publicly calling for its repeal. Hemmer seemed to agree, telling King that he is appearing on the program to boost support for ending reform:

KING: If we’re not in the news, if we’re not pushing to repeal Obamacare, it doesn’t drive the discussion in the public and the public just begins to move away from it, think okay, the Congress must think it’s impossible. That’s part of what’s going on here.

HEMMER: To be frank and that’s part of the reason why you came on our program today. But I think here is the critical point that Republicans are concerned with. This number [for repeal] is down from only two weeks ago, when it was at 56 percent and a lot of people thought that as long as the system works its way into the blood stream of the American people, that it would be accepted over time. Do you fear that, do you see that happening? [...] Just to be clear on this, back to the question. The longer it’s out there, the more accepting it becomes? That’s what you believe?

Watch it:

Unfortunately, Hemmer has a history of shilling for the Republican party. In 2010, Hemmer asked Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) about the GOP’s prospects in that year’s midterm elections and in formulating his question, betrayed his allegiance to the GOP. “As you evaluate things right now, some five a half months out, I mean, where do we stand,” Hemmer asked. “How strong a position are Republicans?”

A new Rasmussen poll out today finds that “support for repeal is at its lowest level since May, with only 41 percent of respondents saying they “Strongly Favor it.” Sixty-seven percent either strongly oppose repeal or somewhat oppose it. A Bloomberg National poll from last month also showed that support for repealing the Affordable Care Act is declining, “with just 34 percent of the country now favoring repeal of President Barack Obama’s health-care overhaul, down from 41 percent six months ago.”

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