Two years after the first protests roiled through the streets of Syria’s cities, what was once another potential victory for the Arab Spring has turned into a long slog of the hardship and chaos of civil war as President Bashar al-Assad clings to power.

At the outset of the pro-democracy protests in Syria, headlines announced the deaths of demonstrators at the hands of state security forces in the single digits. As time wore on, more and greater violence was unleashed against civilians, including the use of armored vehicles, fixed-wing aircraft and mortars against whole neighborhoods. The result can be seen in the conflict’s staggering numbers:

• Syrians Killed: 70,000
• Refugees in Neighboring States: 1.1 million
• Internally Displaced People: 2.5 million
• U.S. Humanitarian Aid to Syria: $385 million
• Total Humanitarian Budget Shortfall: $700 million

Beyond the loss of life, as early as June 2011, Human Rights Watch was reporting on the Syrian government’s widespread use of torture, extrajudicial executions and detention of medical patients. The conditions have only worsened over time, with Syria’s rebel groups now also partaking in atrocities, as chronicled by a U.N. panel. The International Committee of the Red Cross on Friday appealed to world powers to press all-sides to end the atrocities against civilians and aid workers.

As the conflict enters its third year, the current debate on Syria revolves around whether Western powers should join states in the Persian Gulf in arming Syria’s rebels directly. The rebels now hold a large swath of territory in the north and west of the country, but frequently complain of their inability to counter the heavy arms the government can access. France and the United Kingdom on Thursday announced that they are willing to circumvent a European Union arms embargo on Syria, against the wishes of Germany. The concern remains, however, that the arms provided could fall into the hands of the several jihadist groups that have also joined in the fighting in Syria.

The United States has thus far refrained from sending arms, but has not taken a hands-off approach to the crisis. instead opting to send non-lethal aid — in the form of food, body armor, radios and other equipment — and military training. Rep. Elliot Engel (D-CA), Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has introduced a bill in the House to arm the rebels after all. Elliot’s bill, however, falls short of the desire of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and others in the Republican Party for the U.S. tomilitarily intervene directly in Syria.

By Dara McLeod, Director of Communications, Refugees International

MOGADISHU, SOMALIA — Yesterday, I met with a man in Mogadishu whose business was the target of a suicide attack. Ahmed is a British-Somali who returned to the country in 2008 and went on to open up several popular restaurants. Last Thursday, two suicide bombers walked into one of those restaurants and killed 15 of Ahmed’s patrons and staff.

Ahmed’s story is a perfect illustration of the current state of affairs in Mogadishu. Since the departure of Al Shabaab last year, Mogadishu has changed for the better. Businesses like Ahmed’s are springing up and doing well, and the unexpected result of the recent presidential election has given people here some hope that the corruption that has plagued this nation is perhaps starting to lose its stranglehold.

But last week’s attack at Ahmed’s restaurant also demonstrates just how precarious life still can be in this town formerly described as “the world’s most dangerous city.” And there is no group of people more vulnerable than the city’s tens of thousands of internally displaced.

Drive through the streets of Mogadishu, and you’ll see that almost every place where there is an empty plot of land, there are the makeshift shelters of internally displaced people (IDPs). Some IDPs have been here for decades, others more recently arrived — the victims of ongoing conflict and last year’s famine. All came to Mogadishu seeking shelter, only to be further victimized by a system that prevents them from getting the assistance they so desperately need.

Most of Mogadishu’s IDP settlements are run by so-called “gatekeepers” — de facto camp managers who control access to the camps as well as exit from them. Some estimates suggest that there are as many as 1,100 gatekeepers in Mogadishu. There are a few examples of “good” gatekeepers, who provide a measure of security for the IDPs in their care. However, there are far more examples of gatekeepers who are using the IDPs as commodities in a complex matrix that includes local government officials, private militias, and the international aid community.

It is no secret that Somalia suffers from an institutional diversion of aid. Many of the gatekeepers are a large part of this. For example, to live in the camps, IDPs often have to pay “rent” to the gatekeepers — usually in the form of a portion of the international assistance that they receive. There are stories of IDPs wanting to leave the camps, but who are unable to do so because their rent is always in arrears. There are other stories of entire camps of IDPs being sold from one gatekeeper to another. The system has been described by some as a kind of slavery. And it can make it incredibly difficult for those IDPs to break out of this cycle of obligation and re-establish their own livelihoods. Here is video of an IDP camp in Mogadishu we recently filmed:

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Our guest blogger is Krittika Lalwaney, who recently visited Syrian refugee camps in Turkey

Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan are a forgotten piece of the ongoing Syrian revolution. The refugees are not only fleeing the bloodshed, they are active revolutionaries aiding regime opponents and bridging the communication gap between pro-democracy activists inside Syria and the international community. The roughly 10,000 Syrians living in tents inside Turkey have spent the past 10 months urging friends and family inside to continue to demonstrate and plan escape routes for defectors. I visited two refugee camps in Antakya, Turkey in January where I spoke to Syrian refugees and members of the Free Syria Army to understand their roles in strengthening the Syrian opposition.

Inside the refugee camps, only 500 meters from the Syrian border, families were glued to television news reports from Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera. Laptops with wireless internet connections were on Skype where refugees connect with friends and families inside Syria. Refugees will often inquire about access to staples because in many cities such as Homs, the regime has cut off water, electricity and food supplies. Syrians in these camps organize and infiltrate the border to deliver food packages, medical supplies and water. The porous borders serve as a vital communication channel for the refugee community and play an imperative role in keeping the opposition alive.

One Syrian refugee I interviewed said he keeps track of the number of dissidents killed, detained or missing through underground networks and then relays that information to international media outlets. Refugees are central to coordinating protests in Syria; and Army defectors in these camps provide military intelligence to soldiers in the Free Syria Army.

The refugees are also faced with everyday challenges living in Turkey. The Hatay province in Antakya, Turkey at one time used to be a part of Syria and consists of a large Alawite community. Turkish Alawites have enjoyed a strong relationship with the Assad regime and many have benefited from sending their children to Syrian universities. Thus, the recent influx of Syrian dissidents has caused problems with the host community. Refugees have to be wary as many Turkish Alawites are suspected of spying for the regime. One refugee told me that a group of men severely beat him after he spoke openly against Assad and in favor of the revolution.

There are also concerns about the living conditions in the camps. Turkey has not developed a long-term strategy for hosting them. Consequently, their children have no access to public schools and there is no potential for legitimate employment. And harsh weather has wreaked havoc. Syrians living inside Turkey are in desperate need of winter clothes, blankets, new tents, and shoes to cope with winter weather. As the violence in Syria persists, more refugees have been crossing over to Turkey in need of basic essentials. Furthermore, access to health care is limited in the refugee camps where there is only one health tent for 3,000 people. The health unit is not equipped to treat severe wounds or infections.

The refugees continue to aid the opposition but it’s unclear, given worsening living conditions and security fears, how long their efforts will remain effective.