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Economy

Wonk Room’s Robert Gordon To Serve In Obama White House

The Wonk Room would like to congratulate Robert Gordon, who will serve in the White House Office of Management and Budget. The Obama transition team announced today that Robert will be Associate Director for Education, Income Maintenance and Labor at the OMB.

Robert was an original and frequent blogging contributor here at The Wonk Room, and his posts helped establish us as a leading policy rapid-response blog. You can read all of his blog posts here.

We wish Robert the best of luck and thank him for his contributions.

Economy

Reynolds’ Rant

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

In this weekend’s Wall Street Journal, Alan Reynolds accuses us of being lawyers, not economists. We are guilty as charged. But the rest of Reynolds’ rant is wrong.

Reynolds disputes our organization’s estimate that John McCain’s tax plan is worth $3.8 billion to the five largest American oil companies. He claims that we excluded the oil companies’ deductions and credits from our analysis. But we did include deductions. And though we excluded credits — because they are not publicly available — they would have only increased the size of our estimate.

Our estimate is conservative in other ways as well. It used 2007 profits, even though oil companies are breaking all the records this year. It did not count McCain’s big expansion in deductions for business investment. And it did not include oil companies’ foreign profits.

We analyzed 200 companies last spring, and our results have been featured in millions of dollars worth of advertising. None of these companies have disputed our results. In fact, no one did until Reynolds wrote his column three days before the election.

Reynolds gets the big things wrong as well. There is little reason to think corporate taxes put American businesses at a competitive disadvantage. Corporate tax collections are among the lowest in the world because our code is riddled with special interest deductions, credits and exemptions that shield corporate profits from tax. While corporate tax reform is overdue, John McCain’s plan would drive up the deficit, shift the tax burden onto middle-class wages, and harm the economy.

Security

Giuliani Attacks The Wrong Policy

Our guest blogger is Robert Gordon, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

giulianimccain.jpgFormer New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is now placing robocalls attacking Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) on the grounds that Obama “opposes mandatory minimum sentences.” If Giuliani took his own record in New York seriously, he would be attacking Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for McCain’s record of fighting funding to put police officers on the street.

Giuliani has always taken credit for his leadership of New York City during a massive crime drop. And the truth is, he deserves some credit—but not for mandatory minimums. New York’s famous mandatory minimums, the Rockefeller drug laws, date back to 1973.

More important, it’s hard to credit those laws with causing a crime drop two decades later. Other cities, with laws just as tough, didn’t see the crime reductions of New York in the Nineties. Since Giuliani left office, crime has dropped even further, even though the Rockefeller laws were softened. That, by the way, was thanks to Republican George Pataki. These days, the willingness to cut back on mandatory minimums extends to still other softies, like Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT).

As discussed here, and developed in more detail here, two far more important reasons that crime dropped so fast under Giuliani were that (a) the police force in NYC grew twice as quickly as in other big cities, and (b) Giuliani deployed those cops in a smarter fashion. Unfortunately, McCain voted to kill the Clinton program that helped pay for Giuliani’s expansion of the police. And, while that program has since helped other departments to adopt New York’s smart policing tactics, McCain has opposed those efforts too.

Not that these calls are really about policy.

Health

Joe Klein Nails It On McCain’s Health Care Tax Increase

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

At Swampland, Joe Klein posts a great piece on McCain’s plan to raise taxes on many families with health insurance. Joe Biden raised the same issue yesterday, as did a misleading piece in the New York Sun. We wanted to add one more point.

McCain endlessly charges that Obama wants to “raise taxes.” But due to McCain’s health care plan, far more middle-class families will see a tax increase under McCain than under Obama. Consider:

- McCain raise taxes on more people. Obama would raise taxes on about 4 million high-income households, all with incomes above $200,000. McCain would eventually raise taxes on most of the roughly 90 million households with health benefits from their employers. As explained here, the main reason is that McCain’s tax credit is designed to fall further and further behind rising premiums.

- In addition, McCain raises taxes on the middle class. While Obama would only increase taxes on households making more than $200,000 a year, McCain would raise taxes on typical families making $60,000 by $1,100 in 2013.

So remind us again, who wants to raise taxes?

Health

The $1.3 Trillion Question: Does McCain Raise Taxes On Health Insurance?

Our guest bloggers are James Kvaal and Robert Gordon, Senior Fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Sen. John McCain had a read-my-lips moment on taxes yesterday, telling a town hall meeting that “I want to look you in the eye: I will not raise your taxes nor support a tax increase. I will not do it.”

Of course, only three days earlier, McCain said that higher taxes were “on the table” to solve Social Security. And he seemed to say the same to a group of donors last night. ThinkProgress has more of McCain’s muddled history on Social Security taxes.

Here’s another place where John McCain may be willing to raise your taxes: to pay for his enormous health care plan.

McCain has proposed new health insurance tax credits, which his campaign estimates to cost $3.6 trillion over the decade. He says he pays for it by taxing workers’ health benefits, which are largely tax-free today. McCain aides say the plan has no net cost and left it out of their budget plan.

McCain’s numbers add up only by raising taxes on middle-class families. To raise $3.6 trillion by taxing health benefits, you need both income and payroll taxes. But that means an $1,100 tax increase on a typical married couple earning $60,000 in 2013.

Alternatively, McCain could avoid tax increases by applying only income taxes – but not payroll taxes – to health benefits. And this is what his spokesman told the Daily Tax Report he does. But income taxes alone fall $1.3 trillion short of paying for his tax credits.

McCain aides say they pay for their health care plan without raising middle-class taxes, but that’s not possible. So which is it? Do they raise taxes on ordinary families by more than a thousand dollars or add $1.3 trillion to the deficit? It may be the biggest unanswered question in the candidates’ fiscal policies.

Economy

McCain Offers Top Social Security ‘Privatization’ Advocate As Surrogate

Our guest blogger is Robert Gordon, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Today, the McCain campaign is putting forward economist Martin Feldstein as a surrogate.

Feldstein is widely acknowledged as the “chief intellectual force behind privatization” of Social Security. That’s Feldstein’s own term. He wrote “The Case for Privatization” and “Privatizing Social Security: The Ten Trillion Dollar Opportunity.”

McCain personally endorsed Bush’s privatization plans as recently as March, but yesterday, he said “there is nothing I would demand” in a Social Security package and even said that tax increases are not “off the table.”

“Social Security privatization may be another example of the McCain campaign’s private agenda — the agenda the campaign keeps to itself.

Economy

John McCain’s Budget Requires Massive Withdrawal from Iraq By 2013

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

mccainwithdrawal.jpgJohn McCain’s balanced budget plan relies on steep cuts to U.S. spending in Iraq, according to a memorandum written by economic policy advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin and published in the Washington Post today. The plan calls for $150 billion in savings in 2013, which is only possible with the kind of timed mass withdrawal from Iraq he has criticized.

Here is what the plan says:

“Balance the budget requires slowing outlay growth to 2.4 percent. The roughly $470 billion dollars (by 2013) in slower spending growth come from reduced deployments abroad ($150 billion; consistent with success in Iraq/Afghanistan that permits deployments to be cut by half — hopefully more) …”

Whatever McCain says about cutting deployments in half, achieving $150 billion in savings would require a massive withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

First, U.S. spending in Iraq and Afghanistan totaled $171 billion in 2007, according to the Congressional Budget Office – and that includes money for Iraqi security forces, foreign aid, and veterans benefits. If current policies continue – and spending grows with inflation – the war might cost $200 billion in 2013. Cutting the cost by three-quarters, especially when other costs (like veterans benefits and foreign aid) will remain, would require a sharp, perhaps nearly complete withdrawal of troops.

The numbers from CBO look even worse. According to CBO, rapidly reducing the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan to 30,000 would save only $55 billion in 2013. So CBO is saying that a much bigger troop reduction than McCain wants would save barely a third as much money as McCain claims.

Finally, Obama’s own, more aggressive plan to withdraw forces from Iraq will save only $90 billion a year, according to his campaign.

McCain has previously said that an Iraq withdrawal timetable would mean “disaster” and “chaos, genocide.” But his own budget documents contain a plan not merely for withdrawal, but for mass withdrawal.

Health

McCain Takes Radical Stance On Gay Adoption

Our guest bloggers are Winnie Stachelberg and Robert Gordon. Stachelberg is is the Senior Vice President for External Affairs at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, and Gordon is a senior fellow.

This weekend, John McCain staked out an extreme position on “gay adoption.” Here’s what he said:

Q: President Bush believes that gay couples should not be permitted to adopt children. Do you agree with that?

Mr. McCain: I think that we’ve proven that both parents are important in the success of a family so, no I don’t believe in gay adoption.

Q: Even if the alternative is the kid staying in an orphanage, or not having parents.

Mr. McCain: I encourage adoption and I encourage the opportunities for people to adopt children I encourage the process being less complicated so they can adopt as quickly as possible. And Cindy and I are proud of being adoptive parents.

Q: But your concern would be that the couple should a traditional couple

Mr. McCain: Yes.

McCain not only expressed his opposition to adoption by “gay couples”–as if that weren’t bad enough. He said he wants “both parents” involved and therefore doesn’t believe in “gay adoption.” This approach rules out adoption by gay individuals–even though these adoptions are permitted in every state except Florida. In fact, it seems to rule out adoption by single heterosexuals too.

There’s a reason that nearly every child welfare organization in the country, from the American Academy of Pediatrics to the Child Welfare League of America opposes bans on adoption by gays and lesbians, and no state has followed Florida’s lead in banning these adoptions. About 130,000 children wait in the foster care system each year for a permanent, loving home. And every year, half of these children are never placed, and 20,000 children “age out” of the foster care system without ever finding a permanent home.

Children are placed in foster care on a case-by-case basis. Every potential parent undergoes extensive screening before a child is placed with them. A ban on certain adoptions eliminates potential parents and wastes child welfare agencies’ time and resources implementing it—in Texas alone, a ban would cost more than $75 million over 5 years.

Does John McCain really think hundreds of thousands of children should sit in foster care and orphanages while we wait for “Ozzie and Harriet” families to appear? As someone who himself made the admirable decision to adopt a child, Senator McCain surely knows better.

UPDATE: McCain walks it back. Via Andrew Sullivan:

“McCain could have been clearer in the interview in stating that his position on gay adoption is that it is a state issue, just as he made it clear in the interview that marriage is a state issue. He was not endorsing any federal legislation.

McCain’s expressed his personal preference for children to be raised by a mother and a father wherever possible. However, as an adoptive father himself, McCain believes children deserve loving and caring home environments, and he recognizes that there are many abandoned children who have yet to find homes. McCain believes that in those situations that caring parental figures are better for the child than the alternative,”
- Jill Hazelbaker, Director of Communications

We think the last sentence means McCain personally doesn’t agree with Florida, but it’s hard to say. How about a little straight talk? Barring gay people from adopting is morally wrong.

UPDATE II: McCain’s “clarification” doesn’t square with his position 8 years ago. Asked in 2000 about adoption by same-sex couples, McCain responded that he didn’t “believe it’s appropriate.” (San Francisco Examiner, March 1, 2000)

Economy

McCain, A Man Of Many Contradictions

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

mccain.JPGEven while John McCain attacks Barack Obama for “changing positions,” he is pioneering the art of running on multiple contradictory positions – or so we argued yesterday over at the New Republic.

McCain says he’s for Social Security privatization, but his website says he isn’t. His website says he’s for repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax and sweeping corporate tax cuts, but his aides apparently told the Tax Policy Center he isn’t. His aides embrace a $3.6 trillion tax increase, except when it’s pointed out that middle-class households will pay more in taxes too. And so on.

Our timing was good: the McCain campaign continued the pattern yesterday. In a written statement, McCain criticized cuts to Medicare subsidies for insurance companies – subsidies his policy advisor said he opposed. And McCain aides reportedly told Larry Kudlow that McCain is backing away from climate change legislation – something other McCain aides denied.

Most likely, these contradictory positions reflect the contradictory political priorities faced by the McCain campaign: shoring up the base while reaching out to independents. As a result McCain is sometimes a supply-sider and sometimes a deficit-hawk. He wants to transform our health care system and Social Security at no cost to anybody. He wants to clamp down spending, just not any specific program with a constituency.

Economy

National Review Gets It Right

Our guest bloggers are Robert Gordon and James Kvaal, senior fellows at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

The National Review today correctly notes that John McCain’s tax plan “offers very little in the way of direct benefits to Americans in the middle of the income scale.”

The Review then go on to suggest that the only McCain provision with any middle-class relief — doubling the dependent exemption — “would be worth only $525 per child per year. A more direct approach to reducing the overtaxation of families would be to expand the child tax credit.” We made that point back in April.

The Review finally suggests that McCain should make the child credit relief “applicable against payroll as well as income taxes.” Progressives regularly push for much the same thing, increasing the refundability of the child credit. “Refundability” is a word that dare not speak its name among conservatives. But this is also a good idea.

Kudos to the National Review.

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