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Climate Progress

U.S. Now One Step Closer To Being Net Natural Gas Exporter

Exporting natural gas just got easier.

This afternoon, the Department of Energy approved the second application for a facility to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide. Today’s approval to export up to 1.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day goes to Freeport LNG Expansion, on Quintana Island in Texas, for 25 years. The approval process now moves to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commissions (FERC), so the company is not in the clear yet.

Several companies have received nearly two dozen permits from DoE to export LNG to countries with which the U.S. has a free trade agreement (FTA), but the approval process has been much slower for permits to export to non-FTA countries. 19 facilities that want to export LNG to non-FTA countries are still under review by the Energy Department — including a joint project between ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum.

The natural gas industry is booming in the United States, largely due to the practice of fracking, which opened up large parts of the country to extraction previously thought uneconomical to drill. Natural gas can be transported via pipeline across land, but when companies want to export the fuel overseas, they have to use ships. Since natural gas (mostly methane) in gas form would require a large ship to transport, it must be cooled and liquefied before it can be exported across an ocean.

In the last decade, companies built facilities to import natural gas because the U.S. expected lower production than what fracking actually allowed. Once the shale gas boom sharply increased domestic production, they have tried to turn those import terminals into export terminals. Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal, the first facility to receive DoE approval to export to non-FTA countries, is one example of this.

The reason for the delay of such applications is due to opposition largely from the chemical industry, which fears that exports will lead to an increase in the price of natural gas (which it uses for industrial purposes), and those who care about carbon emissions and the environment, who point out that the U.S. still does not know the consequences that exports will have on carbon emissions.

Congressman Ed Markey, running for John Kerry’s old senate seat in Massachusetts, said today that “The Department of Energy still doesn’t even know what the impact of natural gas exports will be on domestic businesses and consumers, but they are approving more exports anyway.”

If the U.S. is increasing exports, it becomes even more critical to ensure that the natural gas obtained through hydraulic fracturing is as safe as possible, with zero fugitive emissions. Yesterday the Interior Department released draft fracking rules, and there are some easy ways (5 in fact) to make the rules adequately protect Americans and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is one thing to argue for weak safeguards to give Americans access to “cheap energy” — it is another to argue for weak rules that poison the air and water to export the energy to other countries.

The net climate effects of LNG exports depend largely on the energy currently used by the importing country — what the gas will replace. Coal-heavy economies that replace their coal with natural gas should see lower emissions, but this transition could threaten more valuable transitions to renewable energy.

The Energy Department said in today’s approval that “the exports proposed in this Application are likely to yield net economic benefits to the United States.” Left unsaid is the fact that the more fossil fuels left in the ground, the easier it is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which would benefit the economy in myriad ways.

Economy

In Defense of Utopia (Part II): The Whole World Is Getting Much, Much Better

In Part I of this essay, I argued that we need a new way of thinking about utopia that is appropriate to today’s modernizing progressive coalition. That approach should start by embracing new findings on human nature and economics that provide the basis for an expansive vision of humanity’s future (see related posts here and here).  And it will reject the left’s currently gloomy view of progress, which confuses current problems with long-term trends.  It is true that rising inequality in the US and some other countries has limited the benefits of economic growth.  It is true that globalization has produced its share of losers in the US and that globally many nations are still mired in poverty.  It is true that world economic progress is promoting serious climate problems.  But economic growth and globalization as long term trends are still far more beneficial than harmful, a fact which resonates with this emerging coalition, even if it no longer does with the traditional working class.

The last point is critical.  For many on the left, a positive attitude toward economic growth and globalization seems counterintuitive.  After all, isn’t there a basic lack of progress in the world today—aren’t things just getting worse rather than better?

No, in fact they’re getting better — much better — and that is despite trends toward increased inequality which have damped down economic advance for average citizens in some countries.  Consider the American case, where trends toward inequality have been particularly serious.  In 1947, the median family income in the US was around $27,000 in today’s dollars.  Today, median family income is around $61,000. Looked at another way, in 1947, 60 percent of families made under $30,000.  But today only around 20 percent make less than that figure and 40 percent make over $75,000, a figure that was exceeded by less than 5 percent of families in 1947.

By 2040, median family income should be considerably higher , though how much higher depends on economic policy and choices we make as a society.  But if we see growth that is merely average for the post-World War II period, the median family could be making close to $100,000 in today’s dollars.  American GDP will be around 27 trillion dollars, more than double its current size, for a population that will be only a third bigger.  American will not just have a mass middle class, as was created after World War II, but, in living standards terms, a mass upper-middle class.  What is privileged today will be commonplace tomorrow.

Switching to a worldwide view, since 1955, the average person earns three times more today than they did back then and eats one-third more calories of food.  The percentage living in absolute poverty has dropped by more than half, down to under 18 percent.  If current trends continue that percent will soon be in single digits and could even approach zero in the decade of the 2030’s.  The UN estimates that that poverty has been reduced more in the last 50 years than in the previous 500.

Read more

Economy

Study Finds Free Trade With China Lowered American Manufacturing By 29.6 Percent

AP Photo

Around 2001, the raw number of manufacturing jobs in the United States plummeted from just over 17 million to just over 14 million. After leveling off for a few years, it collapsed to around 11.5 million due to the Great Recession. It’s since seen a small rebound under President Obama’s tenure, but the continuing depression has put the long-term fate of manufacturing back on the national radar.

Yesterday, The Washington Post’s Dylan Matthews reported that, according to a new paper, the 2000 normalization of trade relations between China and the United States left domestic manufacturing employment 29.6 percent lower that it would have been without the free trade policy:

PNTR did not actually involve much in the way of new tariff reductions, but what it did offer was certainty. It suggested that previously eliminated tariffs on Chinese goods weren’t coming back anytime soon.

That reassurance, Pierce and Schott argue, mattered a great deal. All told, they argue that employment in the manufacturing sector in the United States was 29.6 percent lower than it otherwise would have been absent PNTR. That means that employment in that sector would have grown — by close to 10 percent, Pierce and Schott estimate — as opposed to shrinking considerably, as it actually did. It presumably would have grown even more in the absent of other, non-PNTR liberalizations, such as China’s admission to the World Trade Organization. The effect was four times as strong for production-line workers as for non-production workers, which is in line with the usual finding that the losers from trade tend to be low-skilled workers in rich countries.

Interestingly, much of the negative effect on manufacturing employment came not from actual job losses but from the absence of job growth that would have been expected without the agreement.

This dovetails with a report from the Economic Policy Institute that the U.S. has lost 2.8 million jobs to China since 2001.

As Matthews points out, most economists agree that freer trade, in the long-run, is a net economic gain. Most obviously, the movement of manufacturing jobs overseas gives millions of poor people around the world the chance to better their economic condition. In turn, rising middle classes in other countries can provide new markets for American exports, thus boosting jobs here at home. And cheap manufactured goods from abroad help low-income Americans by providing goods at lower cost. As Matthews says, “It could still remain the case, as free-trade advocates argue, that it helped productivity and growth in the United States overall.”

The flip side is that manufacturing jobs going overseas moves America towards an “hourglass economy,” in which there are lots of low-income jobs, a decent amount of high-income jobs, but not much in the middle. There’s evidence that America’s growing inequality itself is a drag on economic growth, as well as an argument that keeping manufacturing, research and development geographically close to one another provides a more robust exchange of ideas and feedback in a product’s supply chain.

Finally, more domestic manufacturing means more exports and fewer imports, which means a lower trade deficit. Along with monetary policy and private savings, the trade deficit is part of the macroeconomic mix that effects federal budget deficits.

Economy

Congressman Hawks Nonsense For Sugar Industry, One Of His Largest Donors

Rep. Tom Rooney (FL-16)

Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL) made a nonsensical argument in a recent op-ed piece that just happens to support a tax benefit for one of his largest donors, the sugar industry. Rooney’s op-ed defends the heavy tariffs the U.S. places on imported sugar as means to prop up the American industry, despite Rooney’s own stated belief that “expanding free trade” is critical to the growth of the U.S. economy:

Sugar producers from my home state of Florida, and across this country, have some of the lowest production costs in the world. However, they cannot compete with the heavy hand of the Brazilian government, or with Brazil’s sugar labor force that, in some cases, makes just 50 cents an hour.

After European governments allowed Europe’s sugar industry to go out of business, 120,000 Europeans lost their jobs, sugar supplies fell and prices rose. There were even reports of sugar rationing in Germany. America hasn’t seen sugar rationing since World War II, the last time we depended on foreign sugar producers.

Rooney is simultaneously arguing that 1) Brazil would destroy the American sugar industry by selling cheaper sugar and 2) that sugar would be more expensive if we imported more of it. Both cannot be true. And while Rooney claims sugar tariffs don’t “cost taxpayers a dime,” the GAO estimated in 2000 that they knocked $900 million dollars off of U.S. GDP in 1998, a figure that rises to $1.2 billion in 2011 dollars (assuming losses were constant).

Moreover, the European sugar industry is anything but out of business: the EU supplies roughly 10 percent of the world’s sugar. The 120,000 jobs figure comes from a study written by a consultant to the sugar industry that was released at the 29th Annual Sweetener Symposium.

Trusting the sugar industry appears to be a theme for Rooney. U.S. Sugar, America’s largest sugar corporation, was the second-largest corporate contributor to Rooney’s campaign in the last election. He also received a significant donation from U.S. Crystal, another major player in the American sugar market. Rooney’s district, FL-16, is also the single-largest sugar cane growing district in the country.

The U.S. sugar industry is, of course, the staunchest supporter of maintaining the sugar tariff.

Economy

GOP Senator Denies Indisputable Facts On Obama’s Employment Record

On ABC News’ This Week Sunday morning, anchor Jake Tapper pressed GOP Sen. Rob Portman (OH) on Paul Ryan’s false claim during the Vice Presidential debate that the unemployment rate is higher today then when Obama took office. Though Tapper noted that Ryan’s claim was flatly incorrect, Portman (who plays President Obama during Gov. Mitt Romney’s debate prep) simply doubled down on the falsehoods:

TAPPER: ‘That’s how it’s going all around america.’ This has been weak economic recovery, without question. but it is a recovery. and unemployment is going down, as a factual matter. Why would Congressman Ryan, in defiance of facts, suggest otherwise?

PORTMAN: I think that what he was saying was the truth: unemployment is higher today than when the president took office. Unfortunately, in the meantime, we’ve created net zero jobs, Jake.

Watch it:

The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report prove both of Portman’s claims wrong: unemployment is lower than the day President Obama took office and the economy has created net positive jobs. Unless Portman is signaling that he agrees with the discredited conspiracy theory that the non-partisan BLS is cooking the books, these are, as Tapper said, indisputable facts.

Portman also misled on Obama’s record on free trade agreements, saying “it’s unbelievable that the United States has sat on the sidelines for the last four years; hasn’t negotiated a single trade-opening agreement.” The President has renegotiated and signed trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and South Korea.

Security

Four Key Areas Where Romney’s ‘New’ Foreign Policy Is Identical To Obama

Mitt Romney, who has had trouble differentiating his foreign policy agenda from President Obama’s, gave a speech at the Virginia Military Institute that was designed to draw a contrast between his position and the President’s. Despite some sharp rhetorical criticism, however, Romney failed to develop new policy ideas that were meaningfully distinguishable from current Administration policy. The lack of meaningful difference was particularly evident on four issues:

1. Afghanistan. Romney pledged he would “will pursue a real and successful transition to Afghan security forces by the end of 2014.” This is precisely the same position the current Administration takes. Romney surrogates have been unable to point to one specific difference between Obama and Romney on our largest ongoing war.

2. Syria. Romney endorsed providing military aid through relevant third party states: “I will work with our partners to identify and organize those members of the opposition who share our values and ensure they obtain the arms they need to defeat Assad’s tanks, helicopters, and fighter jets.” The Obama Administration has already approved the provision of assistance to Syrian rebels through friendly Arab states.

3. Iran. Romney said he would “put the leaders of Iran on notice that the United States and our friends and allies will prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.” President Obama said that “four years ago, I made a commitment to the American people and said that we would use all elements of American power to pressure Iran and prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And that is what we have done.” Romney also pledged to “restore the permanent presence of aircraft carrier task forces in both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf region,” but the US is already maintaining a carrier group in the Gulf.

4. Free trade. Romney, arguing that “The President has not signed one new free trade agreement in the past four years,” pledged to increase a push toward trade agreements. Obama has signed new free trade agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia, and Romney didn’t specify what new agreements would be passed in a Romney Administration.

Indeed, much of Romney’s speech — like his pledge to “tighten the sanctions [on Iran] we currently have” — were too vague to constitute meaningful promises to make policy shifts. This is in keeping with Romney’s general “doesn’t want to really engage” view about challenging the President’s policy record on international affairs.

Security

Paul Ryan Flip-Flops, Talks Tough On China: ‘They Manipulate Their Currency’

By Philip Ballentine

One of Mitt Romney’s top foreign policy planks is declaring China a “currency manipulator” and fighting back with across-the-board “countervailing duties” (taxes on all Chinese imports), policies introduced in his Sept. 2011 economic policy paper and reiterated since then. Today, his vice presidential pick Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) echoed Romney’s call:

They manipulate their currency… We’re not going to let that happen. Mitt Romney and I are going to crack down on China cheating and make sure trade works for Americans.

Watch the video:

But when the House voted in Sept. 2010 for measures to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation, Ryan was among the no votes.

Ryan’s position was right before his flip-flop: declaring China a currency manipulator would open the door to slapping a tax on every shoe, children’s toy, t-shirt, iPhone, and washing machine imported from China, raising prices for every American consumer. In addition to spiking the prices of Chinese imports (worth almost $400 billion in 2011), Romney’s duties would spark a trade war with America’s third largest export market. China would almost certainly react with duties of its own on American goods. That would be a job killer for the U.S.; America exported $103.9 billion in goods and services to China in 2011, up almost 50 percent from 2008.

In fact, Ryan wasn’t the only conservative who opposed China policies like Romney’s. Among the many conservative experts (including a campaign adviser) who side against Romney, here are two prominent Republicans, unlike Ryan, haven’t flip-flopped on the issue: Read more

Economy

The Economics Of Fireworks Imports

America imported $223.6 million in fireworks from China in 2011 — the vast majority of the country’s $232.5 million in total fireworks imports — while only exporting $15.8 million in fireworks to all international markets, according to U.S. Census Bureau data flagged by Industry Market Trends. This means that the U.S. has a substaintial trade deficit when it comes to the popular July 4th explosives:

– $649 Million: Total revenue from the consumer fireworks industry in 2011, with an additional $318 million generated by the display fireworks industry (Source: American Pyrotechnics Association)

– $231.8 Million: Total value of manufacturers’ shipments of fireworks and pyrotechnics (including flares, igniters, etc.), based on the latest available data (Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s 2007 Economic Census)

– $232.3 Million: Value of fireworks imported from China in 2011, compared to $15.8 million in U.S. exports of fireworks (Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Statistics)

Legislation pending in Congress could lower America’s economic standing in the fireworks world even further: Rep. Dan Benishek (R-MI) and Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) have introduced a bill that would temporarily suspend duties on fireworks imported from overseas, making them even cheaper to buy than they already are. In the campaign finance realm, meanwhile, firework makers have dumped $1,149,280 into the coffers of Republican candidates, and $1,082,834 into those of Democratic candidates.

In other news that’s potentially more uplifting to the national spirit, the fireworks industry has proven to be relatively recession-proof.

Climate Progress

Department Of Commerce Slaps Large Tariffs On Chinese Solar Modules

In a long-awaited decision, the U.S. Commerce Department has issued a preliminary decision to apply tariffs to Chinese-made solar modules being imported into the U.S. The tariffs range from 31 percent to 250 percent.

The preliminary tariffs were issued after a lengthy investigation by the Commerce Department into whether Chinese companies are “dumping” solar panels into the U.S. market below cost. These tariffs follow a March decision to issue small countervailing duties on Chinese module producers that are getting illegal domestic subsidies, according to Commerce.

Today’s issued tariffs are as follows: Trina, 31.14 percent; Suntech, 31.22 percent; and 31.18 percent for all other Chinese producers that participated in the investigation. For companies that did not participate, Commerce has slapped a massive preliminary tariff of 249.96 percent.

The combination of these new tariffs and the countervailing duties will add substantial cost to imported Chinese solar panels. With panel prices hovering in the $1 per watt range, it could add around 30 cents a watt to each panel for leading producers, and vastly more for producers that didn’t get involved in Commerce’s investigation.

These are preliminary fines and can be negotiated and changed before Commerce makes a final decision. The solar industry’s trade group, the Solar Energy Industries Association, has called on the U.S. and Chinese governments to negotiate a settlement — potentially resulting in more moderate tariffs:

“The solar industry calls upon the U.S. and Chinese governments to immediately work together towards a mutually-satisfactory resolution of the growing trade conflict within the solar industry.  While trade remedy proceedings are basic principles of the rules-based global trading system, so too are collaboration and negotiations.

“Importantly, disputes within one segment of the industry affect the entire solar supply chain–and these broad implications must be recognized.  In addition, the U.S. solar manufacturing base goes well beyond solar cell and module production and includes billions of dollars of recent investments into the production of polysilicon, polymers, and solar manufacturing equipment, products which are largely destined for export.  If the U.S.-China solar trade disputes continue to escalate, it will jeopardize these U.S. investments.

“Given these broader implications, it is imperative that the U.S., China, and other players in the dynamic global marketplace work constructively to avert or resolve trade disputes that will ultimately hurt consumers and businesses throughout the solar value chain.”

The solar industry has been on edge since last October, when the manufacturer SolarWorld and six other anonymous companies issued a complaint about illegal trade practices. They argued that China’s subsidies were allowing companies to dump panels below cost, thus driving U.S.-based manufacturers out of business.

However, downstream developers have enjoyed falling panel prices — a factor that has allowed the industry to expand 109% in 2011. A group of solar companies known as the Coalition for American Solar Energy has been staunchly opposed to tariffs, saying they’ll dramatically drive up the cost of solar installations in the U.S.

Update

CAP’s Analyst for China Energy and Climate Policy issued a statement on trade enforcement:

Read more

Climate Progress

China’s Solar Industry Should Be Held Accountable For Breaking Trade Laws

by Kate Gordon

A simmering trade dispute between the U.S. and China will likely come to a head tomorrow when the U.S. Department of Commerce issues its determination on alleged trade violations by Chinese solar manufacturers.  Surprisingly, the U.S. solar industry is not in agreement on the need to hold the Chinese accountable.  It should be.

On one side are those who claim China has been illegally subsidizing and dumping its solar products in the U.S. market, forcing many American manufacturers into bankruptcy.  These companies, mostly manufacturers of solar panels and related products, claim Chinese solar companies have benefited from government largesse in the form of free land and facilities, electricity and water, and low- or no-cost loans that keep prices for Chinese-made solar products artificially low.  In addition, they claim these Chinese companies are illegally “dumping” their cheap solar panels into the American market, making it nearly impossible for U.S. manufacturers to compete.

On the other side are those, mostly solar installers, who have benefited from the ability to buy low-cost solar panels, which they claim has allowed them to do solar installations at a lower cost and therefore expand the use of solar power in America.  This group of U.S. companies argues that U.S. manufacturers can’t compete with the Chinese when it comes to solar panel production, because the Chinese are simply more efficient and can do production at a lower cost.  They also worry that pursuing a trade case will incite a “trade war” with China, which will erode their profit margins, slow U.S. industry growth across the value chain, and make it even harder for solar energy to compete with traditional fossil fuels.

Both sides have compelling arguments.  So who’s right?

One way to answer that question is to say that we’ll find out who’s right when the Department of Commerce issues its findings.  Commerce has already found that China is unfairly subsidizing its solar industry, and has imposed tariffs on Chinese solar manufacturers as a result.  The upcoming decision, on whether China is also illegally dumping those panels into the U.S. market, may bring larger tariffs if China is found to be in violation of our mutually-agreed-upon, and heavily negotiated, trade agreements.  The entire point of the trade enforcement regime is to figure out whether a country is in fact breaking the rules, and if so, to issue sanctions. It’s a system based on the rule of law, something we Americans hold dear, and for good reason.

But would a decision against China undermine America’s emerging solar energy industry? There is no question that solar energy faces an uphill battle in the U.S.  The combination of century-old subsidies to fossil fuel companies and the lack of any real national commitment to renewable energy makes it difficult for emerging energy technologies to compete here.  But that doesn’t mean that the United States needs cheap Chinese solar panels so badly that we should just roll over and let a foreign government break enforceable international trade rules.  If Commerce finds that the Chinese government has acted illegally, then the Chinese government and the industry it is subsidizing should pay a price for that behavior.

Our faith in the rule of law is too important for us to abandon our international trade obligations in favor of cheap imported solar panels.  So, too, is our need to support the U.S. manufacturing sector by protecting it from unlawful trade practices.  Manufacturing is a crucial piece of the U.S. economy. Our ability to stay innovative and competitive in a time of intense global pressures relies on manufacturing companies, which contribute fully 70 percent of all the private research and development spending in America.  And these companies are major job creators: a recent report by SEMI found that manufacturing jobs had the highest job multiplier of any segment of the American economy.

That’s why we should be supporting clean energy manufacturers in their efforts to compete with China, through programs like the Clean Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit program that President Obama recently urged Congress to extend, or through Senator Sherrod Brown’s “Security and Energy in Manufacturing Act,” rather than punishing them for trying to compete on a level playing field. Because that’s the crucial point:  every American company should be able to compete on a level playing field in the international marketplace.  That’s good for solar manufacturers in the current case, but it’s good for all American companies – and for our economy as a whole – in the long run.

Kate Gordon is vice president for energy policy at the Center for American Progress.

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