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Economy

TARP Watchdog: Just $600 Million Of HAMP’s $50 Billion Has Been Spent

For months now, the Obama administration signature foreclosure prevention program — the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) — has been sputtering along, with more borrowers now getting booted out of the program than receiving a sustainable mortgage modification. In fact, many borrowers who enter the program wind up worse off financially, as the failure to obtain a permanent modification results in the borrower owing back fees and late penalties to the bank.

One of the biggest problems with the program is that the banks simply have no incentive to participate on a large scale, as they receive incentive payments for successful modifications but are subject to no repercussions for failing to keep qualified borrowers in their homes. Yesterday, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), from which HAMP’s money comes, noted that just $600 million of the $50 billion allocated to HAMP has been expended, adding that “a program that began with much promise now must be counted among those that risk generating public anger and mistrust.”

Now, the program is designed to pay out incentives to mortgage servicers for every borrower that stays current over the next few years, so that would explain some of the delay. But it doesn’t explain why barely more than one percent of the money allocated to the largest Obama administration program meant to aid homeowners has actually been expended.

According to the latest data, which was released yesterday by the Treasury Department, about 466,000 borrowers have received permanent mortgage modifications under HAMP, while almost 700,000 trial modifications have been canceled. Another 30,000 people received a “permanent” modification, only to have it canceled. The program clearly needs some reworking.

And there are things that could be done to get more borrowers into sustainable modifications and to move the HAMP money out the door faster. For one thing, housing counselors could be given the authority to approve loan modifications, and if the banks don’t challenge the modification in three months, it would automatically become permanent. Paul Krugman wrote that such a move “would do a lot to clarify matters and help extract us from the [mortgage] morass.”

Yesterday, Paul Willen, a senior economist and policy adviser for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that recent anti-foreclosure efforts by the federal government have amounted to just “three years of failed policies.” “To prevent foreclosures we must pay lenders or borrowers a lot of money or force lenders to modify loans even when they don’t want to,” he said. “The idea we can go forward and all we need to do is tweak things a little or change a rule here or there or even change a lot of rules and give some incentive payments — that is not enough.”

Politics

Thune Tries To Wiggle Out Of His TARP Vote As The Program Comes To An End, Possibly Earning Profits

Thune6 On Sunday, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), enacted late in the Bush administration to prop up the financial system, will expire, having cost taxpayers a fraction of its original $700 billion. The program is now projected to cost less than $50 billion, and could even end up earning a profit as the government sells off assets.

Regardless of its successes, the TARP is extremely unpopular, especially among conservatives and tea party activists. But despite their opposition to the program today, several leading Republicans, including House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), voted for the “reviled mother of all” bailouts. Indeed, “yea” votes helped bring down incumbent Republicans like Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Bob Bennett (UT) in primaries against tea party-backed right wingers.

One person who might especially wish he could change his vote on TARP is Sen. John Thune (R-SD). Thune is openly considering a White House bid in 2012, and will likely be the only GOP candidate to have voted for TARP — a serious liability when courting conservative primary voters. Recognizing this danger, Thune has tried to wriggle his way out of the vote. In an interview that will air Sunday on C-Span, Thune claims the Bush administration misled him, and accuses the Obama administration of turning the program into a “political slush fund“:

“Pronouncements were made [by the Bush administration] about how it was going to be used. It wasn’t used that way. The Obama administration expanded it and turned it into more of what I would characterize as a political slush fund in terms of the many uses of it.” [...]

“It was wrong philosophically,” Thune said. “How it was used and, in my view, misused is what I take issue with. ”

At the time, Thune said, the arguments for TARP were economically “compelling.”

But in retrospect, it might be a different view.”

Of course, Thune offers no evidence to support his claim that the program has become a “slush fund,” because there is none. His claim that Obama “expanded” the program is equally false. When Obama took office, the program was estimated to cost taxpayers $350 billion. That amount has steadily declined since, and is now projected to cost far less, if it ends up costing anything at all. And the philosophy behind the TARP hasn’t changed, so if it’s “wrong philosophically” today, why wasn’t it then?

As for being misled, Thune sang a different tune as recently as May of this year. In an interview with Slate’s Dave Weigel, Thune gave an enthusiastic defense of TARP, calling it “necessary” and noting that it had “tremendous, broad support”:

There was a tremendous, broad support in South Dakota among the small business community, the financial community, the South Dakota pension funds, the governor — there was a tremendous amount of support at the time for taking the steps that we took. I think a lot of people would dispute or take issue with how it was used. But people felt like, even though many disagreed with it, we took the steps necessary to prevent the economy from a complete meltdown.

While there are certainly legitimate concerns about TARP, Thune’s isn’t one of them. As Matt Yglesias notes, the TARP “looks set to go down in history as one of the most unfairly maligned policy initiatives of all time.” A recent study by two leading economists concluded that without the program, the economy would have 8.5 million fewer jobs than there are now, and that the unemployment rate would exceed 15 percent. But apparently Thune is more interested in appeasing the rabid right-wing base than defending his own vote.

Update

Erick Erickson, editor of the tea party friendly blog Red State, came out swinging against Thune today, calling his potential 2012 bid “toast.” “Let’s be honest…the only reason people talk about him for President is because he’s a good looking guy,” Erickson wrote, but “other than that his greatest accomplishments are doing nothing.” Erickson slammed Thune for not backing tea party Senate candidates, and called the hype surrounding his candidacy a product of the “vapid nature of inside the beltway punditry.”

Yglesias

The Cost of TARP

TARPaccount 1

Jackie Calmes reports on the good news about the very low net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program:

But the once-unthinkable possibility that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program could end up costing far less, or even nothing, became more likely on Thursday with the news that the government had negotiated a plan with the American International Group to begin repaying taxpayers.

The rescue of the troubled insurer included $70 billion from the bailout program that was enacted two years ago, at the height of the global financial crisis late in the Bush administration, initially to prop up big banks.

At the White House on Thursday, the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, briefed President Obama about A.I.G. and about the broader outlook for the expiring rescue program, putting the projected losses at less than $50 billion, at most. Yet neither the White House nor Congressional Democrats are likely to boast much in the month remaining before midterm elections. For most voters, TARP remains a four-letter word.

To go even stronger here, it’s clear that the much-loathed core of TARP—the injection of government funds into insolvent banks—is going to earn a substantial profit. Losses will be attributable to efforts to use money to save the auto companies and to assist homeowners. Main TARP—the bank bailout—isn’t going to cost you anything. For a program that’s attracted such widespread derision, that’s pretty remarkable. Do you think letting the banks fail would have had zero disruptive impact on the economy? None whatsoever? What other programs can you name that garned support from Nancy Pelosi and George W Bush, helped people millions of people, and had a negative cost to the government? And yet people think it’s horrible, in part because the public sphere has utterly failed to defend it.

That’s a problem, in part because the early days of TARP were a huge success for the public sphere. The month before a nationwide general election is not a great time to ask a legislature to approve a bank bailout. And initially the House of Representatives rejected it. But responsible people came together and bludgeoned a critical mass of House rightwingers into doing the right thing. Then Hank Paulson devised a plan for asset purchases that almost certainly would have lost tons of money and possibly not stabilized the system. But in response to vigorous and well-informed criticism from a variety of quarters (with Paul Krugman playing a leading role I would say) he changed directions in favor of the equity injections that are giving us the negative-cost bank bailout we’re enjoying today.

It became a lost opportunity for ideological instruction. Instead it’s become a moment of anti-instruction, which people think has demonstrated the lesson that the government consists of nothing but corrupt giveaways. It makes me sad. When it was first proposed, I didn’t understand this issue correctly. But in the ensuing two years, I’ve learned more about it and improved my understanding. The public as a whole, however, as just gotten itself more confused.

Yglesias

In Praise of TARP

File-Henry_Paulson_official_Treasury_photo,_2006

To chime in with Karl Smith and Kevin Drum more opinion leaders really have an obligation to point out that TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, looks set to go down in history as one of the most unfairly maligned policy initiatives of all time. The government took hundreds of billion dollars, gave it to banksters, and in exchange all we got was this lousy$7 billion in profit. Which is to say that even if TARP had no positive impact on the economy whatsoever, it had a negative cost to taxpayers. How many programs can you say that about? And how many of them are toxically unpopular?

The real outrage of TARP has nothing to do with TARP and everything to do with the catastrophic failure of progressive politicians to win the interpretative battle over TARP in the winter of 2009-2010.

TARP was both a good idea and nothing less than an exposure of the myth of the free market. There’s an idea out there about a free market that operates “naturally” and produces a certain distribution of wealth and income. Any further interventions into that marketplace to ensure that prosperity is broadly shared constitutes some kind of illegitimate “redistribution” of wealth and income from its natural state. This is not, however, an accurate description of how any economy featuring a modern banking system works. A world in which we simply didn’t have banking and finance would be, overall, a much poorer world. But a world with banking and finance requires various forms of management—monetary policy, regulation of the financial system, and intervention amidst panics and crises. TARP and the associated activities of the Federal Reserve were examples of such intervention and were good ideas. But they highlight that public policy decisions are integral to the creation and sustainment of modern capitalist economies. Under the circumstances, wise and moral policymakers will necessarily attempt to ensure that the prosperity they create is broadly shared by law-abiding members of the community.

That’s the populist backlash we should have had. The hand of policy was, of course, always there all along making the puppets dance. But TARP was an immensely valuable teachable moment in which the curtains malfunctioned and suddenly the puppeteers were there for all to see. But instead of channeling public shock at this revelation into an argument about the obligation of the tax and monetary systems to work in the interests of everyone, we let the right wing seize the moment.

Politics

Dick Armey Questions President Bush’s Qualifications On The Economy: Bush Wasn’t ‘A Big Thinking Guy’

dick-armeyFormer House Majority Leader and FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey is making the rounds this month to promote his new book, “Give Us Liberty: A Tea Party Manifesto.” In proselytizing for the conservative agenda of the “leaderless” Tea Party, Armey touts the humble foundations of the movement’s agenda, saying the “best practices come from the ground up, around kitchen tables, from Facebook friends, at weekly book clubs, or on Twitter feeds.”

In trying to reestablish the conservative brand, Armey is attempting to throw President Bush under the bus. In an interview aired last night on the O’Reilly Factor, Armey dismissed the qualifications of Bush who pushed for the 2008 financial bailout funds. When right-wing pundit Bill O’Reilly tried to defend Bush’s decision, Armey told O’Reilly that “Bush isn’t a big thinking guy” and he lacked “adult discipline,” unlike Armey, who knows better because “he read Hayek and Mises”:

O’REILLY: So you think the federal government should just step back and let it go?

ARMEY: Yeah the whole notion of too big to fail is simply a rationale for government intervention mostly.

O’REILLY: Bush isn’t a Big government guy..

ARMEY: No Bush is… Bush isn’t a big thinking guy either. Quite frankly He’s not well-schooled on economics. [...] Look I’m an economist by training, I studied it all my life. I have an advantage over them because I read Hayek and Mises. But the fact of the matter is the most critical affliction that came to the economy for those few days was the nations see in the secretary of treasury and the president in a total panic. If they would’ve had an adult discipline.

O’REILLY: So if you were there, you wouldn’t have done anything, no intervention. You would’ve let whatever happen happen

ARMEY: Absolutely right. You’ve got to let..you can’t privatize profits and socialize loss.

Watch it:

Armey is not shy about his current contempt for the former president. At a Christian Science Monitor lunch last month, Armey dubbed Bush the “quickest, biggest bitter disappointment.” But, during Bush’s administration, Armey found plenty of policies to praise Bush about. In 2001, Armey even touted Bush’s “rare ability to ‘tune out the noise’” to get things done:

House Majority Leader Dick Armey said yesterday President Bush has a rare ability to “tune out the noise,” which is helping him define and organize the new initiatives of this administration. “There’s a new demeanor in Washington,” Mr. Armey told a group of constituents at a breakfast coffee klatch. Mr. Bush “knows what he wants to accomplish and is busy going about it.”

While he now slams Bush’s No Child Left Behind policy, Armey published an op-ed in the Washington Times in 2001 to congratulate Bush for “finally changing the way Washington views education.” Blaming President Clinton for “simply talking about a failed education system,” Armey said Bush “is doing something about it.” When Bush pushed to privatize Social Security in 2004, Armey saluted Bush’s “strong leadership” in “clearly understand[ing] the profound issues at stake.”

Politics

Rep. Broun lies, claims Hank Paulson is a Democrat.

Speaking on the floor of the House of Representatives yesterday, Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) strained to try to explain the deficit, correctly noting that most of it came from reckless spending during the Bush administration era. Exhibiting his partisan colors, Broun tried to reconcile Bush’s Troubled Asset Relief Program by falsely claiming that Bush administration Treasury Secretary was a “Democrat”:

BROUN: I wanted to put some perspective on 2008, too. That’s when the President’s chief economic adviser — I guess the Treasury Secretary — told him that the sky was falling and that we needed to pass the Toxic Asset Relief Program, or TARP, which many Republicans voted against. I didn’t buy the Democratic Treasury Secretary under a Republican President because that’s exactly what Hank Paulson is. He’s a Wall Street insider, a Wall Street banker. Wall Street believes in big government.

Watch it:

Paulson is a Republican, and was still a Republican when TARP was passed. Broun’s fib is the latest in a long line of conservatives desperately flailing to make up excuses for the Republican-led bank bailout. Glenn Beck, who supported the bank bailout when it was passed, now says he “hated” Bush for enacting the bailout. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who suspended his campaign to go to Washington and negotiate the bailout, says he was misled in voting for it, claiming now that he did not know that it was intended to help financial institutions.

Economy

Cantor’s Bad Week: Mocked By A Former Treasury Secretary, Revealed As A Stimulus Hypocrite

When it first came before the House of Representatives, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was defeated after House Republicans failed to deliver on their promised votes. At the time, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) and other House Republicans circulated a plan that, instead of authorizing the government to purchase toxic assets, would have it ensure hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgages.

Cantor claimed that the plan “does not leave the American taxpayers with the bag and makes sure that Wall Street pays for this recovery.” However, as economist Robert Waldmann noted then, “I can’t manage to find any reason to doubt that the House Republicans’ plan would destroy the US financial system,” as it actually gave mortgage holders an incentive to push for defaults (since the U.S. would explicitly cover the losses).

As it turns out, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson didn’t think very much of Cantor’s plan either (or the GOP response to the economic crisis, as a whole), and in his memoir derides Cantor’s “unformed” proposal:

[M]eetings with the Senate GOP were “a complete waste of time for us, when time was more precious than anything,” and Eric Cantor’s suggestion that TARP be replaced with an insurance program was met with outright derision from Paulson. The usually un-snarky Paulson hits the minority whip with particularly hard, ridiculing Cantor’s insurance plan by sarcastically suggesting the administration abandon efforts to prop up the collapsing financial system – just to try out Cantor’s unproven, “unformed” insurance scheme. “I got a better idea. I’m going to go with Eric Cantor’s insurance program,” he writes. “That’s the idea to save the day.”

TARP, for all of its warts and lack of accountability, really did pull the economy back from the edge, and the ultimate losses are going to be far below the headline $700 billion (and in theory will be totally recouped by the Obama administration’s proposed bank tax, which Cantor opposes).

But this just completes what has been a bad week for Cantor. He has had to answer a slew of questions about his obvious hypocrisy regarding the economic stimulus package, which he voted against, but still trumpets projects from. And he has continued this game, appearing on Greta Van Susteren’s Fox News show last night to claim that “jobs weren’t created” by the stimulus, but he has still appeared at events to tout a high-speed rail line project funded by the stimulus that he says will “create a lot of jobs.” He has cited estimates of 85,000-160,000 jobs created by the project. Watch a compilation:

Economy

Bank Lobby Mulls Constitutional Challenge To ‘Bizarre, Punitive’ Bailout Tax

Last week, the Obama administration proposed a .15 percent tax on financial institutions with more than $50 billion in assets, to be assessed on liabilities, minus deposits. Since the announcement, the banking lobby — along with Republicans in Congress — have been bemoaning the supposed burden of the fee. Yesterday, Steve Bartlett, President and CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable (which represents the 100 largest financial firms in the country), appeared on C-Span to complain about the “bizarre, punitive” tax. He said that, in his view, the tax constitutes a illegal bill of attainder for singling out companies for taxation:

It is one of the more bizarre, punitive taxes I’ve ever seen. It’s sort of portrayed as a tax, and also as a way to pay back the TARP and also as a way to punish people who are expressing their views in Congress…This fee or tax is kind of a tax in search of a purpose…It singles out fifty specific companies, and those fifty companies would pay this tax.

Watch it:

Bartlett is not the only one playing the “unconstitutional” card. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) has reportedly hired a lawyer to look into challenging the tax on constitutional grounds. But as the New York Times reported, “legal experts have called those claims dubious.” And Bartlett is just flat-out wrong that the proposal singles out fifty specific companies. In fact, it lays out a clear criteria for which firms will be affected, not naming any one in particular. This makes the case for a bill of attainder tenuous at best.

On a more substantive note, the banks are continuing to moan and groan about a proposed tax that is really quite tame. Its aim is to collect $90 billion over ten years, which amounts to $9 billion a year, from all the covered institutions collectively. JP Morgan, which just announced quarterly profits of $3.3 billion — while upping its 2009 compensation pool to $26.9 billion — would be responsible for paying just $1.5 billion annually, which is the most of any institution.

Dean Baker did some back-of-the-envelope calculating and found that “the tax will be equal to roughly 5 percent of the combined profits and bonuses at the large banks.” So it clearly could have been higher, for a longer period of time, and been allocated to continued deficit reduction even after all of TARP has been repaid.

As Paul Krugman wrote, the banks are acting like “a drunk driver who, after killing a number of pedestrians, received life-saving treatment at a nearby hospital — and responds by suing the doctor.” And it really seems that they are ready to call as out of bounds any step aimed at fully compensating taxpayers for their role in salvaging the financial system.

Update

Kevin Drum asks “why bother fighting such a minuscule levy anyway? They should be celebrating for getting off so easily.”

Economy

Bank Lobby Bemoans The ‘Absurd’ ‘Perplexing’ ‘Burden’ Of Obama’s Proposed Bank Fee

American Bankers Association CEO Edward Yingling

American Bankers Association CEO Edward Yingling

Yesterday, Politico reported that the Obama administration is mulling over implementing a bank fee in its next budget, in order to “recoup” the cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and decrease the deficit. Of course, the banking lobby is up in arms:

Edward Yingling, president and chief executive, American Bankers Association: “To impose yet another burden on the industry would obviously decrease their ability to lend.

Scott Talbott, head of government affairs, Financial Services Roundtable: “Placing additional taxes on top of the new regulatory burdens will stifle the industry just as the economy is beginning to recover.

Yingling also referred to the proposal as “perplexing,” while another banker called it an “absurd idea.” The main argument coming from the banks is that they either already have or are in the process of paying back TARP, and that any losses are going to come from either the automakers or AIG.

However, as Tim Fernholz pointed out, the TARP law does stipulate that any losses be recouped from the banks. “This began long before everyone started gearing up for the next cycle of bonus madness as an obviously needed response to the bank bailouts,” he wrote. A revenue-raising mechanism to fit this requirement has been under debate for some time within Treasury, so the bankers don’t have much of a leg to stand on.

Still, I don’t understand why the administration is making this about recouping TARP, in isolation, when it could be using this as an opportunity to talk about TARP and every other extraordinary step that the government took to rescue the financial system. Obama and the Treasury can remind the banks — and everyone else — about FDIC guarantees, and allowing investment firms to convert into bank-holding companies with cheap access to loans, among many other actions. The banks’ survival — and their ability to make huge profits so soon after they were staring into the abyss — did not start and end with TARP, and neither should their debt to taxpayers be satisfied solely by paying back their TARP funding.

There are plenty of other ways to raise revenue from the banks — including a transactions tax or taxing bonuses — but the administration has been intently shooting those ideas down. Still, the financial services industry, which handles about $50 trillion of transactions per year, can afford to pay higher fees and taxes, in one way or another. So if the administration is going to put its eggs in the “recouping the bailout” basket, it should make sure that the banks can’t portray themselves as victims of an unreasonable levy by reminding everyone just how extensive the effort to save the financial system really was.

Economy

Does Resolution Authority Mean ‘TARP In Perpetuity’ Or ‘Permanent Bailout Authority’?

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) is expected to reveal legislation (possibly today) creating a “resolution authority,” which would enable the government to negotiate an orderly unwinding of large, complex financial firms like AIG, Citigroup, or Lehman Brothers.

The banking industry has already begun to criticize the proposal and Republicans have taken to characterizing it as enshrining taxpayer-funded “bailouts.” Last night, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), the ranking member on the House Financial Services Committee, and CNBC’s Larry Kudlow went so far as to call resolution authority “TARP in perpetuity,” and “permanent bailout authority“:

KUDLOW: It’ll perpetuate TARP, in perpetuity. TARP will be used to somehow string these institutions along. Is that right, is that fair, is that your question? [...]

BACHUS: It’s a permanent bailout authority.

Watch it:

While it makes sense, politically, to invoke the unpopular TARP to oppose anything that the administration is proposing, Kudlow and Bachus are pretty far off the mark. In fact, resolution authority is meant to ensure that the government doesn’t find itself, as it did last year, having to choose between letting a company’s disorderly collapse ripple through the economy or infusing that company with money to prop it up, indefinitely.

And contrary to Kudlow’s positing, the resolution money will not come from TARP. That said, there is a legitimate question of how it will be raised, and Frank and the administration were looking at two options to find the answer.

The first was having the largest banks pay into an insurance fund that would be used in the event of a failure that required resolution. The second, which Frank and Treasury have reportedly settled on, is having Treasury loan the failing institution money, which will then be recouped from the company’s assets and from a fee on other large institutions, after the fact.

Unfortunately, I think Frank and the administration have this backwards. We already have a system in which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. assesses fees on banks, which it uses to pay depositors when an institution fails. I don’t see why a similar system wouldn’t work to build a fund for resolution authority.

The big banks are going to cry foul either way, but at least if they had to pay into a fund, it’d be simple to say that the fee was meant to guard taxpayers against any of them failing. Collecting fees post-failure means that one firm will have to pay for the mistakes of another, directly, with some undetermined formula for how much each institution should pay.

Simon Johnson, professor at MIT Sloan School of Management, said that charging banks after the fact was “a non-starter,” while Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) said that “the only way he could vote for the bill would be if it had large insurance premiums levied on the biggest banks.” Indeed, framing the fee as insurance, instead of forcing banks that didn’t fail to pay a penalty, seems like the better way to go.

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