Intriguing new poll results from the Concord Monitor which sees Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton winning their respective primaries, even though they both fare worse than the competition in the general election. It’s an intriguing dynamic, and I’d like to see a poll that ads a question about how much weight voters are putting on “electability” and get a sense of how much cognitive dissonance there is out there.
That’s all sort of old news, however. What I hadn’t seen previously is that polls show former governor Jeanne Shaheen absolutely crushing John Sununu by a 56 to 34 percent margin. I froze my ass off knocking on doors and holding signs for Shaheen’s failed 2002 Senate campaign against Sununu, so I’d certainly like to see that work retroactively vindicated. Even more to the point, given the big-picture trends, this is the kind of Senate seat that would probably be pretty safe in the hands of a Democratic incumbent, but might also be extremely hard to win in 2014 unless another massively unpopular Republican president is in office at that time.
The only problem for Democrats is that Shaheen hasn’t decided to run and the people who are in the race don’t poll nearly as well. Her record is, to me, totally uninspiring but they like her in New Hampshire so I hope she decides to run.