Nibras Kazimi from the Hudson Institute is hearing coup rumors in Washington:
So the folks in Stephen Hadley’s NSC outfit are allegedly putting out the word that Meghan “Wanna-Be Ms. Bell” O’Sullivan, the White House’s political envoy to Baghdad, has lined up the necessary support to unseat current Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, who would ostensibly be replaced by the former PM Ayad Allawi.
He points out, however, that “no one can pull-off a military coup in Iraq.” After all, Iraq notably lacks in security services that can effectively control the country. As Brian Ulrich says “Nibras Kazimi made an important point about this Allawi coup business that I’m just now seeing:
Seriously, how is this coup supposed to work? Is the United States supposed to do it openly? The Mahdi Army? Badr Brigades? The Kurdish peshmerga? What kind of reaction is this likely to get from the other factions? I suspect it won’t lead to national reconciliation.
Kazimi suspects that this is a way of trying to spook Nouri al-Maliki and his allies into compromising with the Sunni Arabs.