Elect New Voters

Another thought on these Clinton campaign postmortems is that there’s a tendency in them to overstate the extent to which changes in the Clinton campaign account for her better performance at the end of the primary process than at the beginning of it. As best I can tell, the real cause of the change was just a change in which states were voting — the schedule shifted to places where the sort of older working class white voter who formed Clinton’s base were a larger proportion of the electorate. Holding demographics constant, there was little change in either candidate’s performance over the course of the primary season.