"No One Could Have Predicted…"
Here’s an interesting clip of Francis Fukuyama and Robert Kagan talking some time ago — before the war between Russia and Georgia — with Fukuyama presciently recognizing that America’s status quo “we get our way on everything, and Russia gives up on everything” approach to Russia was unlikely to be accepted. He offers what are, I think, some wise ideas that could have avoided the war:
To return to the bugaboo of mine, conventional punditry would classify Fukuyama here as the cold-hearted “realist” while Kagan is the morally infused “idealist.” But watching events unfold in the real world, there’s nothing especially moral about letting moralism push you toward policy that result in bad outcomes. At the end of the day, the “pro-Georgian” line in US politics and policy has not done Georgia any good. What people all over the world need are practical policies that deliver results. That’s pretty moral from where I sit.