A Surge of Ethnic Cleansing

The fly in the ointment of the feel good story of “the surge” and improved counterinsurgency tactics bringing security to Iraq has always been that the level of sectarian violence in Baghdad actually kept increasing for quite a while after the new problem was in place. By the time the violence drop occurred, Baghdad neighborhoods had generally become monosectarian enclaves after a process of cleansing. This sequence of events is, on one level, fairly well known — General Petraeus owned up to it in congressional testimony, CNN’s Michael Ware has talked about it, etc. — but on another level it’s barely penetrated political consciousness. But a new UCLA study that uses the innovative method of looking at patterns in electricity use manages to really quantify the impact much better than previous characterizations:

Now needless to say, this ethnic cleansing in Baghdad doesn’t explain, say, the success of the Anbar Awakening at all. But on the other hand, the “awakening” began well before the surge. And in Baghdad terms, if we’d begun withdrawing troops in 2007 and then violence shot up, and then eventually violence went down once minority groups had all been pushed out of their homes, I doubt people would be crowing about the success withdrawal had in bringing peace to Baghad.