I know a lot of Obama supporters who are refusing to let themselves get too optimistic about the outcome in November. What’s interesting is that one reason I often hear cited for this refusal to get too optimistic is that a lot of Obama supporters who were Kerry supporters seem to have convinced themselves that Kerry, too, looked very likely to win at this stage in the game and then unexpectedly lost on Election Day. The thing is, as Ezra Klein reminded us yesterday, Kerry’s defeat was actually predicted by the opinion polls. It’s true that Bush was leading in August, but he was clearly leading — albeit fairly narrowly — throughout September and October:
What’s interesting is that a lot of liberals got into some esoteric ideas about Kerry winning. As Ezra says:
Back then, I remember Democrats staying glued to Ruy Teixera’s blog as he explained, day after day, why the latest poll showing Kerry behind was really flawed and actually suggested the possibility of a lead.
I read that stuff, too, and it kept me from being totally despondent about Kerry’s chances. But I recall that on Election Day we did a poll at the office and I was the only one predicting a Bush victory even though the polls had Bush leading. The other factor, of course, is that the bad leaked exit polls that afternoon convincing a lot of people — this time including me — that Kerry was going to win after all. But none of that changes the fact that the Bush-Kerry race was just another example of the candidate who seemed to be winning going on to win.
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