When last we checked, Stephen Harper’s incumbent Conservative Party had a healthy lead in Canada’s upcoming parliamentary elections and seemed reasonably likely to secure the Canadian right’s first outright majority government since the 1980s. But then, you know, financial crisis:
The latest Canadian Press/Harris-Decima poll gave Harper’s Conservatives 31 per cent support across Canada, just four percentage points clear of the resurgent Liberals, who rose to 27 per cent support.
“It’s a very interesting and tightening race,” said the CBC’s David Taylor, who is covering the various public opinion surveys ahead of the Oct. 14 federal election.
The New Democrats had 20 per cent support, with the Greens at 12 and the Bloc Québécois at eight per cent.
Canadian elections have an appealingly hard-to-predict quality to them. Their parliament is elected, like America’s House of Representatives, through a series of first-past-the-post elections in single-member constituencies called “ridings.” In the United States we only have two major political parties, so though the outcome of House elections can deviate somewhat from what you might call the national “popular vote” the relationship tends to stay reasonably close. But Canada has, in addition to its two major parties, the BQ regional party in Québec and also these extra left-wing parties. Consequently the actual outcome in terms of ridings won can deviate a great deal from your proportion of the overall vote. 31 percent of Canadians voting for the Conservatives could be consistent with finishing in second-place behind the Liberals, could be consistent with winning a majority of seats nationwide, or could be consistent with a continuation of the status quo where conservatives run a minority government. You can also see a reasonable amount of last-minute instability and tactical voting as supporters who realize that their first-choice candidate is running third or fourth in their riding switch to whoever of the top two contenders they prefer.
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