Chocolate City De-Chocolatizing

Rob Goodspeed does a basic projection of demographic trends, and suggests that DC will shift from majority black to plurality black in 2014:

Given demographic trends since 2000, the District of Columbia will no longer have a Black majority somewhere around 2014. That’s what I found after completing a simple projection using U.S. Census population data from the 1990 and 2000 census, and 2006 and 2007 American Community Survey population estimates. No matter the approach (trends since 1990 or 2000, projecting population numbers or percentages), every projection found somewhere around 2014 would be the turning point when D.C. would enter a new racial era where no major group could claim a majority.

Since 1990, the Black share of the D.C. population has fallen 11.2%. That decline was made up by increases in four other categories: White (6.2%), Asian (1.2%), other (2.2%), and two or more races (1.6%). The U.S. Census Bureau allowed respondents to select multiple races for the first time in 2000, and asks separate questions for race and ethnicity. Over the same time period, the percent reporting Hispanic ethnicity has increased 2.9%.

Interesting stuff. A related development that will probably have a more concrete impact on the city will be the need to redraw the ward boundaries after the 2010 census. The nature of the recent population turnover in the city has been for some neighborhoods, especially east of the Anacostia, to lose population while others have gained a lot.