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China Syndrome

Tyler Cowen on the Chinese stimulus efforts:

Is there a gentle way to glide down from 10 to 5 percent growth? I tend to doubt it. Are you prepared for a China with negative economic growth for a few years (or more)? I tend to doubt that too.

One nice thing about being a mature democracy is that faced with a serious economic problem under Republican watch, we get a Democratic Party landslide. If economic problems continue long enough, we’ll probably get a Republican counter-landslide in 2010. By contrast, in China economic difficulties seem likely to lead to a revolution or else to disturbingly violent suppression of dissent. My recollection of the revolutions literature from college is that these things tend to happen specifically when a period of prosperity reverses itself.

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