Lindberg: It’s a Center-Left Nation

Tod Lindberg, Hoover Institution fellow and generally paid-up rightwinger, says we should draw the obvious conclusion from the fact that left-of-center politicians keep winning elections:

Here’s the stark reality: It is now harder for the Republican presidential candidate to get to 50.1 percent than for the Democrat. My Hoover Institution colleague David Brady and Douglas Rivers of the research firm YouGovPolimetrix have been analyzing data from online interviews with 12,000 people in both 2004 and 2008. It shows an overall shift to the Democrats of six percentage points. As they write in the forthcoming edition of Policy Review, “The decline of Republican strength occurs by having strong Republicans become weak Republicans, weak Republicans becoming independents, and independents leaning more Democratic or even becoming Democrats.” This is a portrait of an electorate moving from center-right to center-left.

The only thing I would say to this is that nobody should underestimate the possibility for rapid change. If the economy is doing well in 2012, people are going to say to themselves “man, things sure were screwed up before Barack Obama showed up and fixed everything” and he’ll win in a landslide. But if the situation remains grim, then people will think “man, life sure has sucked under Barack Obama” and they’ll show him the door. And of course, wild swings are possible. Ronald Reagan swept into power in 1980 amidst serious economic problems. By 1982, things were worse than ever and the GOP suffered big electoral reverses. But by 1984, the were back on the upswing, it was “Morning in America” and he got re-elected by a huge margin.