By Request: Israeli Election

A bunch of folks asking about this. It seems the centrist Kadima Party will narrowly beat the right-wing Likud. But the broader right-wing bloc of Likud plus far-right Yisrael Beitenu and National Union looks set to have more seats than the center and left.


Consequently, it’s very hard to tell what will actually happen in terms of formation of a government. Tradition dictates that President Shimon Peres should give the opportunity to form a coalition to Kadima’s Tzipi Livni but putting a majority together would probably require her to somehow peel off a party of the right. In that case, you’d have a coalition whose main leaders are open to a peace deal but who couldn’t possibly make any such deal without collapsing the coalition. Alternatively, you could have a right/far-right alliance whose leadership would be opposed to dealmaking. Basically, the Palestinians will find that they’re without a serious partner for peace. Just as the Israelis have been complaining, leaders will either be too weak to make peace or else too opposed to peace to bargain with.