CBO Projection of GDP Growth


This is how information about projections ought to be presented—in terms of probability—figure 2-3 of the CBO’s latest report:


According to the text, these confidence bands actually understate the uncertainty. They say that “If the potential errors in the current
forecast are similar to the errors in CBO’s forecasts published between 1976 and 2006, the probability is 90 percent that real GDP will
fall in the shaded area of the graph” but that due to the unusual nature of present circumstances, “larger errors are more likely to occur than usual.”