Making China Part of the Solution

The atmosphere is a global phenomenon, so controlling climate pollution is a global issue that requires a global solution. That means China needs to be part of the solution. But currently, the Chinese policy framework is pointing in a very different direction. That leads Paul Krugman to advocate a punitive carbon tariff on Chinese goods to bring them to heel.

I think it’s fine to have something along these lines in the mix of discussions to try to bring them along, but I think this is a pretty unsound conclusion. In reaching this, I think one advantage I have over Krugman is that I’ve never been to China and have never discussed this matter with any Chinese policymakers or business figures. Krugman has and has reached the conclusion based on those discussions that China will never come around voluntarily. James Fallows has also talked to Chinese people and says they tell him something different. I’ve talked to various people who’ve talked to Chinese officials, and the things they say vary. Being personally ignorant, it’s easy for me to adopt the meta-rational stance and conclude that the state of Chinese thinking about this issue is unclear and probably somewhat conflicted.

The bottom line about the international aspects of climate change is that the very idea of an effective response assumes the existence of a generally cooperative international environment. It doesn’t assume the non-existence of the odd “rogue” state here or there, but it assumes the absence of any kind of serious great power rivalries. Not just China, but also India and probably Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia as well are going to need to cooperate in a serious way with the OECD nations on this. And I just don’t see how you’re going to get where you need to get through coercion. If anything, I think attempted economic coercion of China is more likely to wind up breaking down solidarity between the US, EU, and Japan than anything else. First, we impose our carbon tariff. Then suddenly Airbus and European car companies are getting all kinds of sales because the EU hasn’t followed suit. Now not only are the Chinese mad at us, we’re mad at the Europeans. Optimistically, at this point everyone decides coercion is unworkable and we start to back away.

Tyler Cowen says we should remember “this problem is really bad and that means a lot of what we are tempted to do could make it even worse.”