New Study Highlights Deeply Problematic Nature of Israeli Strikes on Iran

With Barack Obama in the White House, misguided talk of bombing Iran has increasingly started to center on the idea that Israel might bomb Iran. But not only is this a bad idea, there continue to be many experts who see it as totally infeasible:

Their concerns, based on sober analyses of Israel’s known capacities and the scope of the challenge it would face, are crystallized in a recent 114-page paper by Anthony Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, senior scholars at Washington’s Center for Strategic & International Studies. They have produced what is regarded as the most detailed public study thus far of the challenges Israel would face.

Their conclusion: Chances of a strong success — defined by how much of Iran’s uranium enrichment program is destroyed or the number of years the attack delays Iran’s acquisition of material sufficient to build a nuclear bomb — seem dubious, while the risks of the undertaking and its harsh military and destabilizing geopolitical consequences seem overwhelming.

And always recall that beyond the logistical challenges are the political issues. An Israeli strike on Iran is overwhelmingly likely to make the Iranian government more interested in forward-looking efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon.