Murder Down in DC

After experiencing a large decline starting in the 1990s, the number of murders in DC has been creeping up slightly the past couple of years:

So far this year, however, murder is way down:

There’s been some concern across urban America that poor economic conditions will lead to a return of the high levels of crime seen in the 1980s and early 1990s, but the historical evidence on how likely that is is mixed. Certainly, any such increase would be a very unwelcome development. Crime, after all, features a lot of tipping point and feedback loop effects. The fewer murders there are in the District in any given year, the more time and attention MPDC can afford to dedicate to investigating any given murder. The ability to devote more attention to particular cases increases the odds of apprehension which decreases the odds of violation. That, in turn, makes policing easier.

And of course with less murder there’s more resources available to deal with other kinds of offenses. A reduction in crime also encourages people to be out and about more, which creates “eyes on the street” and can further reduce crime. It also spurs economic opportunities and job creation which, in turn, reduce crime. By contrast, rising crime can swamp the law enforcement infrastructure and then start to devastate the tax base which supports it.