It’s part of the nature of things that the more seats you hold in the House of Representatives the more likely you are to lose ground in the next election. With Democrats holding a majority, in other words, by definition a lot of Democrats are representing more-conservative-than-average districts. Nevertheless, CQ reports that the 2010 outlook for Democrats actually looks pretty good and “The only three contests in which CQ Politics rates an advantage to the challenging party are all for seats now held by the Republicans and targeted by the Democrats.” Leading the way is Rep Joseph Cao of New Orleans who’ll face the challenge of running against someone who’s not the scandal-plagued William Jefferson.
Meanwhile, the geography of the 2010 Senate races is also highly favorable to the Democrats. And given the contrast between ironclad discipline on the GOP side and the “anything goes” attitude on the Democratic side, it looks like for a while yet we may be in a California-style dynamic where Republicans can’t win elections but Democrats can’t actually pass a governing agenda.