Planning for the Future

Yesterday I found myself reading with interests about the Chinese government’s plans for expansion of the Shanghai Metro. Very sensibly, there’s not only an ongoing expansion plan designed to last through 2020, but there’s also an even longer-range plan looking forward to 2050. This seems like the right way to do it—everyone expects Shanghai to continue growing throughout this period, so it’s only sensible to operate with a long-run plan in mind. A plan that’s subject to revision, to be sure, but that can guide current decision-making and ensure that there’s always some more projects ready to come online if the resources become available.

What’s striking is the extent to which we don’t operate like that here in the United States. I think everyone believes that over the next couple of decades the Washington, DC metro area will continue to add population. And people likewise clearly envision there being additional square feet of office space in the District and they’re also envision an increase in the District’s population. On top of that, we’re also trying to envision a less carbon-intensive future. All this pretty clearly implies that there ought to be some sort of plan in place for building additional Metro capacity through the central city. After all, the system is currently near its capacity for moving people, and the lack of any redundancy is already hurting us badly whenever any kind of problems arise.

Of course with plans in place the question would still arise of whether or not it’s possible to find the funds necessary to execute the construction of a new core-serving line. But my point would be that first things should come first, and you should always have plans in place so that you can be prepared to make the case for funding and think logically about the design of the metro area and the role transit can play. Instead, though, when we finish building something we tend to just . . . finish . . . as if further population growth somehow took us by surprise.