Doubting the Af/Pak Link

Bernard Finel has a number of excellent questions about our Afghanistan policy. This one is probably the best:

What precisely is the nature of the risk a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would pose to the stability of Pakistan? From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, and yet by most indications, Pakistan was under less threat from Islamist radicals then than now. What has changed to make Afghanistan now the lynchpin on which the stability of Pakistan rests?

Now we can understand part of the story here. The rise of the “Pakistani Taliban” is certainly a new and important factor. At the same time, it’s not only the case that previous Taliban rule of Afghanistan didn’t threaten Pakistani stability, Taliban rule of Afghanistan was encouraged by Pakistan. Pakistan changed its attitude toward this under pressure from the United States which, in turn, has the consequence of changing the Taliban’s attitude toward the Pakistani government. But it’s really unclear how promoting a Tajik-dominated Afghan government that Pakistan perceives as contrary to its interests helps advance Pakistani stability. And one of America’s major adversaries in Afghanistan, the Haqqani network, seems straightforwardly in bed with the Pakistanis.