Nuclear Test Ban Would Enhance US Security

Baker Shot, Operation Crossroads

Jessica Matthews lays out the nuclear policy we need. I liked this part on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty:

Since 1999, we have learned that a nonproliferation system designed against threats from states must be rebuilt to eliminate loopholes and to contain new threats from commercial groups and from terrorists.

Iraq, Iran and North Korea exploited a critical vagueness in the NPT that must be fixed. In 2003, the news broke that a multinational, commercial network was selling bomb technology. On 9/11 Americans awoke to the terrorist threat, and we have since learned of some terrorists’ nuclear ambitions.

But 20 years after the end of the Cold War, the non-nuclear states feel that the weapons states haven’t upheld their end of the NPT bargain: to move toward disarmament. They are, therefore, unwilling to discuss necessary new restrictions until they see movement. Ratifying the test ban is a necessary first step.

Hawks are very afraid of “rogue states” acquiring nuclear weapons, but also totally unwilling to see the US take the kind of steps that could create an effective nonproliferation regime. To square the circle, it needs to be possible for the US to use unilateral military coercion as the centerpiece of our proliferation policy. That’s why they were so eager to believe that Iraq could be easily conquered back in 2003. Now that the “quick and easy regime change” theory has been debunked, they’ve moved on to massively overrating the efficacy of unilateral bombardment of Iran.