Nate Silver’s updated 2010 Senate outlook is worth a read. But before peering into the details, it’s worth contemplating the fact that the raw number of seats in play understates how bad the dynamic is for the Democrats. The two most likely party flips are seats in Delaware and Connecticut, both of which should be solid blue seats. Conversely, GOP-held seats in pale blue states like New Hampshire and Ohio don’t look like particularly likely pickups at the moment.
So a sober prediction at the moment is of modest net Democratic losses. But that’s happening on an electoral map that’s tilted very heavily in the Democrats’ favor. It’s particularly odd that things look bad for Democrats considering that even though congressional Democrats are unpopular, congressional Republicans are even more unpopular. Given that there are only two parties, I would expect the more popular of the two to be in a strong position.