Overestimating the USSR

Posted on  

"Overestimating the USSR"

I’m apparently new to the fact that for a long time a number of well-known economics textbooks featured the idea that the Soviet economy was likely to soon overtake the American one. You can see some recent comments on this from Alex Tabarrok and Andrew Gelman but probably the most thorough discussion is at Bryan Caplan’s blog.

Lenin-Trotsky_1920-05-20_Sverdlov_Square_(original) 1

Something that I think is revealing about the mindset of economists is that Caplan refers to the view that the Soviet economy’s growth prospects were bright as “pro-Soviet” and talks about the possibility of left-wing ideology tilting one’s assessments of the Soviet economy in this direction.

If you look at the issue through an international relations lens, or through a focus on US domestic politics, you’ll get a different picture. The main political tendency inclined to overestimate Soviet economy performance was Cold War hawks who spent much of the sixties, all of the seventies, and some of the eighties warning that America was at risk of becoming the “number two” country in the world. A minority of the hawks, like Senator Scoop Jackson, also had left-wing views about economic policy, but the majority were inclined to right-wing views. And now we have Frank Gaffney wanting to do it again on the threat of Islamic fundamentalism.

I bring this up because conservative faith in the workability of the Soviet economic model reached its apogee in the late seventies during the “Team B” exercise when a bunch of neocons teamed up with congress to produce alternate reports suggesting that official US government accounts were massively underestimating Soviet capabilities. This was basically the same as the mucking with intelligence that this same crew did with regard to Iraq.

« »

By clicking and submitting a comment I acknowledge the ThinkProgress Privacy Policy and agree to the ThinkProgress Terms of Use. I understand that my comments are also being governed by Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, or Hotmail’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policies as applicable, which can be found here.