Congress and Illusions of Control

There’s a lot to chew on in Marjorie Margolies’ op-ed on how she doesn’t regret her vote in favor of the 1993 Clinton budget, even though it’s said to have cost her her seat, and that House Democrats should suck it up and vote for the health care bill. I thought this was the best analytic point:

While it is easy to say my balanced-budget vote cost me reelection, that assumes the line of history that followed the bill’s passage. Had I voted against it, the bill wouldn’t have passed, the Republican opposition would have been emboldened, the Clinton presidency would have moved into a tailspin . . . and all of this could have just as easily led to my undoing.

Politicians, like all people, like to see themselves as in control of their destiny. Hence there’s a tendency for people to think that if they vote in just the right way they’ll be immune to problems. But the fact of the matter is that “tough” votes tend to be tough precisely because there are problems with going in either direction. Meanwhile, the impact of voting record on election outcomes is actually quite small. If you’re a freshman Democrat in a conservative district and unemployment is hovering around 10 percent you’re just in big trouble no matter how you vote.