Trends

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"Trends"

Something I was discussing with one of CAP’s policy hands yesterday is that there’s something a bit wacky about the level of concern in Washington with the long-term budget deficit. Not “long term” as in 2016 but “long term” in terms of these projections about Medicare bankrupting the country in the late 2040s or whatever. Obviously it’s no knock on the Congressional Budget Office to observe that they can’t actually predict the long-term trajectory of medical innovation. Maybe we’ll all be treated by super-cheap robodoctors. Maybe we’ll invent an incredibly effective pharmaceutical intervention for heart disease, life expectancy will skyrocket, and with it we’ll be buried under a crushing long-term care burden. Who knows?

Here’s a chart Ryan made projecting Firefox’s unstoppable rise to 100 percent market share:

image001

Is that going to happen? Almost certainly not. Firefox might be superseded by different technology. Or maybe it’ll take off exponentially and everyone will be using it way faster than that. Nobody knows.

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